South Africa face New Zealand on Saturday for a place in the Rugby World Cup Final 2015 and Ladbrokes are back with another great offer. If South Africa score first against New Zealand, Ladbrokes will refund losing First/Anytime Tryscorer bets, as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £14.10 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Julian Savea to score the first try.
We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
Place £25.00 on Julian Savea @ 8.00 = Potential profit of £175.00
Lay £20.10 on Julian Savea @ 10.00 = Potential liability of £180.90
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| Julian Savea scores 1st try and South Africa score first | +£175.00 – £180.90 = £5.90 loss |
| Julian Savea scores 1st try and New Zealand score first | +£175.00 – £180.90 = £5.90 loss |
| Julian Savea doesn’t score 1st try and South Africa score first | -£25.00 + £19.10 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £14.10 profit |
| Julian Savea doesn’t score 1st try and New Zealand score first | -£25.00 + £19.10 = £5.90 loss |
So if Julian Savea doesn’t score the first try and South Africa score the first points of the match, we will make a nice profit of £14.10! Any other outcome and we will have made a loss of £5.90. I would usually avoid doing offers that have such a large risk but risking £5.90 to make a potential profit of £14.10 gives us effective odds of 3.39. The fact that South Africa are 2.10 to score first, makes this a profitable offer in the long run. Hopefully the odds will tighten as we get closer to kick-off which will give us a smaller outlay and better effective odds.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £90,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.