Potential
- -
 
Guaranteed
£7.45
 
My Profit
£14.79

Bwin Offer – BNP Paribas Masters 2016


Posted by Matt (administrator) Mon, Oct 31, 2016 11:10am Matt
Start Time: 31/10/2016 10:15

The BNP Paribas Masters gets underway in Paris today and you don’t want to miss this Bwin offer. Simply place a £10.00 bet on each of the first 6 days of action and Bwin will boost our winnings on Sunday’s Final by 50%, as a free bet up to a maximum of £50.00! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall guaranteed profit of £7.45 and here’s how…

bwin-offer-tennis-ace

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

The tournament runs for 7 days between Monday 31st October 2016 and Sunday 6th November 2016.

Here’s what we need to do:

  • Place a £10.00 bet (pre-match or live) each day at odds of 1.50 (1/2) or greater.
  • Win or lose, our free bet percentage will accumulate each day.
  • Place a bet on Sunday’s Final at odds of 1.50 (1/2) or greater.
  • If our bet wins, we’ll get a profit boost as a free bet.

Our percentage boost on the Final will depend on how many days we place qualifying bets…

1 day 2 days 3 days 4 days 5 days 6 days
5% 10% 15% 20% 30% 50%

So, in order to claim a 50% profit boost on Sunday’s Final, we need to place a qualifying bet on each of the first 6 days.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

bwin logo

Aim to lose no more than £0.50 on each of your 6 qualifying bets

So, we will lose a total of £3.00 in qualifying for our 50% profit boost.

Final Bet:

We won’t know what odds are available until the Final line-up is complete, but the following example will give you an idea of how things might pan out.

We’ll need to make a profit of £100.00 on this bet to qualify for the maximum £50.00 free bet (50%). Free bets will be credited within 48 hours and will be valid for 7 days.

Say, for example, Andy Murray is odds of 3.00 to beat Novak Djokovic in Sunday’s Final…

In order to work out our required back stake, we need to divide £100.00 (required profit) by 2.00 (back odds minus 1.00 to account for our returned stake), which gives us £50.00.

We’ll need to calculate our effective odds in order to work out the correct lay stake.

So, if Andy Murray wins, our £50.00 bet will return £150.00 plus a £50.00 free bet. We can expect to extract 80% cash from our free bet, so £40.00, which gives us total returns of £190.00. To work out our effective back odds, we just divide the £190.00 by our £50.00 back stake, which gives us 3.80.

We can now enter these effective back odds into my matched betting calculator to work out the correct lay stake…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £61.69…

bwin logo

Place £50.00 on Andy Murray @ 3.80 = Potential profit of £50.00

smarkets white

Lay £61.69 on Andy Murray @ 3.10 = Potential liability of £129.55

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Andy Murray wins + £100.00 + £40.00 (80% of free bet) – £129.55 = £10.45 profit
Andy Murray doesn't win - £50.00 + £60.45 (£61.69 minus 2% commission) = £10.45 profit

So, regardless of the outcome, we’ll make a nice profit of £10.45 on our Final bet. If we take into account our total qualifying loss of £3.00, this gives us an overall guaranteed profit of £7.45 on this Bwin offer.

NOTE: Please be aware that Bwin and Smarkets have different retirement rules for tennis. If a player retires before the end of the first set, bets are valid at Bwin and bets are void at Smarkets. This means that you could end up losing out if your player retires before the end of the first set. On the other hand, if your player’s opponent retires before the end of the first set, you’ll make a nice profit. An alternative to running the risk, would be to dutch your bet with another bookmaker who have the same retirement rules as Bwin.

* I actually placed my Final bet on Andy Murray to win 2-0 at back odds of 1.55 and lay odds of 1.60, giving me an overall guaranteed profit of £14.79 on this Bwin offer. *

Comments


  1. matchrover

    Hi Matt. Sorry but a bit confused here. If we won £50 on the final as above won’t bwin only boost by 50% max ie our free bet will be £25 not £50 as above. Or am I missing something? Don’t we want our profit on the final to be £100 to get max free bet of £50?? Sorry if I misunderstand here

    1. Matt

      No you’re quite right, apologies for that. Thanks for flagging it up. Must have been having one of those mornings!

  2. CBG

    The last time BWin did an offer like this (“Road to Russia”) they eventually claimed it was by invitation only despite their original T&Cs not including this in the “eligible bet” section. They then changed the T&Cs restrospectively to exclude everyone who had not received an email about the promotion. I was one of the possible hundreds who got screwed over. Alarm bells are already ringing in that the offer is not showing on their promotions page.

  3. CBG

    Update on my previous post: I logged out of Bwin and checked their promo page again – the offer is there. I logged in to double check if it was a customer-specific exclusion but the promo is now showing for me. Weird. Anyway, once bitten, etc. I think I’ll give this one a miss.

  4. Steve

    just be careful with this as if your player retires in the first set Bwin still pays out whoever is declared the winner whereas Smarkets require the 1st set to be completed so your lay would be void.

    1. Matt

      Worth mentioning Steve. I’ve added a note to that effect.

  5. Nick Grainger

    This offer is not available for me, only specific customers are allowed it .

  6. BBQ

    All noted as above – that all said, the recent £2 a goal promo was not emailed to me nor was I able to view the promo on my login to their site, but the free bet came in regardless. Hit and miss it seems.

  7. Roachy

    Does it matter if the odds are lower than 1.5 for the final bet ? Murray is at 1.14 just wanted to know. Thanks Roachy

  8. Andy

    This has gone wrong. You’d need to stake £714 on Murray to get the maximum free bet. I certainly can’t afford that but the match on the other bloke is hopeless so I can only make £1.30 on this final bet. Oh well…

  9. albatross

    Agree the offer is a bit gash but surely we can bet on other markets rather than outright winner. I can’t see anything in the terms that would discourage that. Did it for yesterdays qualifier.

  10. G

    Min odds is 1.5 for the final bet. I forgot to bet yesterday so only get the 30% boost

  11. Andrew

    Anyone got any bright ideas how to make this offer work?

  12. Andrew

    just done this bet and went for murray 2-0 on sets and they would let me put more than £58 on it,!!!! so can make the full profit potential

  13. albatross

    Won at the bookies. A bit nervous about the £50 coming through. Fingers crossed.

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