There’s a big weekend of Premier League action to look forward to and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If a red card is shown in the selected matches this weekend, 188BET will refund losing pre-match mobile bets on all markets on that particular game as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £90.00 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bets:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
This offer is available on the following Premier League matches…
| Fixture | Kick-Off | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea v Newcastle | 12:30 | Saturday 2nd December 2017 |
| Arsenal v Man Utd | 17:30 | Saturday 2nd December 2017 |
| Bournemouth v Southampton | 13:30 | Sunday 3rd December 2017 |
| Man City v West Ham | 16:00 | Sunday 3rd December 2017 |
Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match via mobile between 00:01 on Thursday 30th November 2017 and 16:00 on Sunday 3rd December 2017, to be eligible.
Only losing bets are refunded in the event that a red card is shown, so ideally we need to select something that we don’t think will come in. Having looked at the odds available for Arsenal v Man Utd, we could place our qualifying bet on a Draw in the ‘Win Draw Win (1X2)’ market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and if we opt in, they are charging just 2% commission on Premier League Match Odds bets until 3rd January 2018.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.42…
Place £25.00 on a draw @ 3.35 = Potential profit of £58.75
Lay £24.42 on a draw @ 3.45 = Potential liability of £59.82
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Draw | + £58.75 – £59.82 = £1.07 loss |
| Not a draw and red card shown | – £25.00 + £23.93 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £22.68 profit |
| Not a draw and red card not shown | – £25.00 + £23.93 = £1.07 loss |
So, if the game isn’t drawn and a red card is shown, we’ll make a nice profit of £22.68. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £1.07. Risking £1.07 to make a profit of £22.68, gives us effective odds of 22.20, so given that the odds are only 4.00 for a red card to be shown, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need either team to win.
This offer is available on all four selected matches this weekend. It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bets on but here’s what you could go for…
| Fixture | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea v Newcastle | Chelsea | 1.27 | 1.28 | £0.30 | £23.44 |
| Arsenal v Man Utd | Draw | 3.35 | 3.45 | £1.07 | £22.68 |
| Bournemouth v Southampton | Bournemouth | 3.10 | 3.20 | £1.12 | £22.63 |
| Man City v West Ham | – | – | – | – | – |
We should be able to limit our qualifying loss to an average of around £1.00 per match. With a potential profit of around £22.50 on each match, we stand to make an overall potential profit of £90.00 on this 188BET offer.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
Free bets will be credited automatically within 72 hours of settlement of the qualifying bet and a red card being shown in the respective match. Free bets will be valid for 30 days.
* A red card was shown in Man Utd’s 3-1 win over Arsenal, resulting in an overall profit of £21.26 on this 188BET offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.