£90.00
Potential Profit
£21.26
Actual Profit

188BET Offer – Red Card Money Back


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 02/12/2017 12:30

There’s a big weekend of Premier League action to look forward to and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If a red card is shown in the selected matches this weekend, 188BET will refund losing pre-match mobile bets on all markets on that particular game as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £90.00 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

This offer is available on the following Premier League matches…

FixtureKick-OffDate
Chelsea v Newcastle12:30Saturday 2nd December 2017
Arsenal v Man Utd17:30Saturday 2nd December 2017
Bournemouth v Southampton13:30Sunday 3rd December 2017
Man City v West Ham16:00Sunday 3rd December 2017

Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match via mobile between 00:01 on Thursday 30th November 2017 and 16:00 on Sunday 3rd December 2017, to be eligible.

Only losing bets are refunded in the event that a red card is shown, so ideally we need to select something that we don’t think will come in. Having looked at the odds available for Arsenal v Man Utd, we could place our qualifying bet on a Draw in the ‘Win Draw Win (1X2)’ market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and if we opt in, they are charging just 2% commission on Premier League Match Odds bets until 3rd January 2018.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.42…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on a draw @ 3.35 = Potential profit of £58.75

Betfair logo

Lay £24.42 on a draw @ 3.45 = Potential liability of £59.82

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Draw+ £58.75 – £59.82 = £1.07 loss
Not a draw and red card shown- £25.00 + £23.93 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £22.68 profit
Not a draw and red card not shown- £25.00 + £23.93 = £1.07 loss

So, if the game isn’t drawn and a red card is shown, we’ll make a nice profit of £22.68. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £1.07. Risking £1.07 to make a profit of £22.68, gives us effective odds of 22.20, so given that the odds are only 4.00 for a red card to be shown, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need either team to win.

This offer is available on all four selected matches this weekend. It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bets on but here’s what you could go for…

FixtureSelectionBack OddsLay OddsQualifying Loss Potential Profit
Chelsea v NewcastleChelsea1.271.28£0.30£23.44
Arsenal v Man UtdDraw3.353.45£1.07£22.68
Bournemouth v SouthamptonBournemouth3.103.20£1.12£22.63
Man City v West Ham-----

We should be able to limit our qualifying loss to an average of around £1.00 per match. With a potential profit of around £22.50 on each match, we stand to make an overall potential profit of £90.00 on this 188BET offer.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

Free bets will be credited automatically within 72 hours of settlement of the qualifying bet and a red card being shown in the respective match. Free bets will be valid for 30 days.

* A red card was shown in Man Utd’s 3-1 win over Arsenal, resulting in an overall profit of £21.26 on this 188BET offer. *

Comments


  1. Michal

    Have you got it credited to your account, yet? Don’t we need to send any email as it was recently with this offer?

    1. Matt

      They’re credited automatically now Michal. Did you place your qualifying bet via mobile?

  2. Michal

    Yes, I did. I’ll wait till tomorrow before contact LC if it’s still not granted.

Post a comment


Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *