It’s Wolves v Liverpool on Monday night and you don’t want to miss this Golden Goal offer from William Hill! Simply place a bet on Wolves or Liverpool to win the match and if your selected team scores first, William Hill will pay you out as a winner, in cash, regardless of the outcome! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £65.52 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Promotion available on selected matches from 00:00:01 on 5th January 2019 until 23:59:59 on 1st June 2019.
- Qualifying Single bets must be placed on the 90 Minutes market for Wolves v Liverpool.
- Qualifying bets must be placed before 19:45 (kick-off) on Monday 7th January 2019.
Golden Goal Winnings:
Golden Goal winnings will be paid as cash, up to a maximum of £50.00 (plus our stake, or the proportion of our stake that contributed to those winnings).
- If we stake £100 at odds of 1.50 (1/2), we’ll receive £150 in cash (£50 winnings, plus our £100 stake)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 2.00 (evens), we’ll receive £100 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £50 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 3.50 (5/2), we’ll receive £70 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £20 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Wolves in the 90 Minutes market.
If Wolves score first and go on to draw or lose the match, our winnings will be paid in cash, up to a maximum of £50.00.
To calculate our back stake, we just need to divide £50.00 by 2.90 (back odds – 1.00), which gives us £17.24. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our back bet, so we should stake £20.00 instead.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £18.66…
Place £20.00 on Wolves @ 3.90 = Potential profit of £58.00
Lay £18.66 on Wolves @ 4.20 = Potential liability of £59.71
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves score first and win | +£58.00 | -£59.71 | £1.71 loss |
| Wolves score first and don't win | +£47.24 | +£18.28 | £65.52 profit |
| Wolves don't score first and win | +£58.00 | -£59.71 | £1.71 loss |
| Wolves don't score first and don't win | -£20.00 | +£18.28 | £1.72 loss |
So, if Wolves score first and fail to win the game, we’ll receive cash winnings of £50.00, plus the £17.24 of our stake that contributed to those winnings, making us a nice profit of £65.52! Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £1.72. Risking £1.72 to make a profit of £65.52, gives us effective odds of 39.09, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our cash winnings will be credited within 2 hours of the match finishing or by 12:00 on Tuesday 8th January 2019.
Note: If your team scores first, you can either let it run as above or place an extra back bet to lock in a profit. If you decide to guarantee a profit, you just need to divide the sum of your potential profit and potential loss by the back odds. So if the back odds are 2.50, you would divide £67.23 by 2.50, giving you a back stake of £26.89 and a guaranteed profit of £38.63.
* Wolves scored first and won the match, resulting in a loss of £1.71 on this William Hill offer. *
Mukesh H
Guest userCan you please explain in more detail or show how can we get guaranteed profit please?
Matt
131We could have guaranteed a profit after Wolves scored the first goal, as explained at the bottom of the post.
Dave
Guest userCould you also cover this by laying Wolves next goal before kick off?
Ryan
Guest userI was tempted to, but if they score first AND win, you’ll lose your suggestion and lose the ‘wolves win’ lay so can’t really do that…
T&C’s look as though you DO get your stake back (or part thereof) Matt?
LA
Guest userYou didn’t need to to lay both next goal and Wolves win, just the next goal as Dave says. The Wolves win is effectively insured if they score first, and if they don’t the lay wins.
Matt
131Yes you were right Ryan. The terms and conditions were updated after I’d published the post. I actually went on live chat to clarify the terms prior to posting as they seemed a bit ambiguous and I was advised that stakes were not returned! You just can’t take anything they say as gospel unfortunately.
Marc
Guest userHi Matt, would your profit at the bookie not be 47.24 if Wolves score first and don’t win?
Matt
131Yes it would Marc. The terms were updated after I’d posted.
Dave
Guest userI meant lay them to score first
Mark
Guest userDave, the danger with your suggestion is Wolves score first but then hold on to that lead and win the game.
Matcher
Guest userBut the cost of laying wolves to score next would have been less than £58 (pre match odds were 2.9) so I think it may be possible to lock in a profit under all scenarios?
LA
Guest userDave has a valid point – the odds were much shorter on Wolves next goal versus a wolves win (2.5 v 3.5 30 minutes before kick off), allowing recovery of full stake in a score first and win scenario with profit left over.
This approach left a zero qualifying loss for undesirable outcomes but also gave two scenarios for profit – Wolves score first and win (£17 profit in my case) or Wolves don’t score first and win (£70+ profit).
Ryan Berry
10That’s what I was saying… if they score first, then go on to win the match you’ll lose the first goal lay and wolves winner lay which would leave you at a larger loss
Tipsy Turner
Guest userI’ve done Wolves and they are winning. To lock in a profit do I divide 50 by their current back odds 1.59 so i need to put a back bet on Wolves of £30 quid.
Matt
131As it turned out, stakes (or partial stakes) were returned, so the extra back stake should have been a little more. £30.00 should have banked you a reasonable amount of profit though.
mike d
0Tipsy Turner – I have also done Wolves. The T&C’s state you DO get your stake back (or part thereof), see Ryan’s post above. I am not sure if Matt’s calculation is therefore correct, so I am just going to let it run.
Matt
131The workings of this offer are a lot clearer now that they have updated the terms and provided some examples. I’ve updated the post accordingly, for future reference. Hopefully we’ll see the offer return for big games.
Tipsy Turner
Guest userThanks Matt. Great work and examples
Barry
Guest userSo how do u work your profit from the bookie if your team scores first but does not win the match now that stakes are returned (or partially)?
Matt
131If Wolves had not won the match, we would have received cash winnings of £50.00, plus a partial stake return of £17.24.
£20.00 @ odds of 3.90 returns £58.00, but as per the terms of the offer, the winnings are capped at a maximum of £50.00.
To work out how much of our stake contributed to the £50.00 winnings, we just need to divide £50.00 by 2.90 (back odds – 1), which equals £17.24.
So £50.00 + £17.24 – £20.00 (stake) = £47.24.
Anthony L
Guest userWill this work on gubbed accounts by any chance?! 😁
Matt
131Unfortunately not mate.
toonjangles
0I tried to lock in profit from the start by dutching:
WillHill – Back liverpool to win £20 @ 2.2
Coral (build your bet) Back wolves to score 1st and draw or win £15 @ 2.6
Back 0-0 at smarkets £2.75 @ 14
Pool score 1st & win + £24 -£15 – £2.75 = +£6.25
Pool score 1st & not win + £24 -£15 – £2.75 = +£6.25
Pool don’t score 1st & win + £24 -£15 – £2.75 = +£6.25
Pool don’t score 1st & don’t win -£20 +£24 -£2.75 = +£1.3
cs 0-0 -£20 -£15 + £35.04 = £0.0
Skewed the dutching in favour of liverpool and they let me down but no loss. Did in a hurry so my logic might be flawed.
In hind sight backing no-goal scorer and hoping for an own goal might’ve been better but no matter