Guaranteed Profit
Actual Profit

188BET Cheltenham Offer – Money Back on Day 1 Losses

Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 15/03/2016 13:30

It’s Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival 2016 on Tuesday and 188BET are running a belter of an offer to get us off to a flyer! Simply place bets on Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival and 188BET will refund 25% of our net losses as a free bet, up to a maximum of £188.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £60.30 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

This offer is available to new and existing customers based in the UK and Ireland.

Only bets placed on Cheltenham Day 1 races from 00:01 on Tuesday 15th March 2016 and settled by 18:00 on Tuesday 15th March 2016 will be eligible.

See here for full terms: https://188betpromo.com/UK/CHELT2016/tnc.html

In order to claim the maximum free bet refund of £188.00, we will need to ‘lose’ £752.00.

The refund will be credited as a stake returned free bet that must be wagered once on horse racing at minimum odds of 1.50 (1/2) or greater, before any subsequent winnings can be withdrawn. By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 90% of our free bet refund as cash, so in this case £169.20.

We can place our qualifying bet on any horse in any of the 7 races. It will depend on your available bankroll as to what odds you go for. If we stake £752.00 at high odds, we will need a silly amount of cash in our Smarkets account for the lay side. It’s therefore a better idea to go for a horse with shorter odds in order to minimise the amount of cash we need in our Smarkets account.

At the time of writing, the back odds at 188BET aren’t yet available and the lay odds at Smarkets are pretty poor, so I’ll use fictional odds (Min in the 1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after Day 1 has finished.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

This is effectively a risk-free offer, so we can use the ‘Risk-Free Bet’ setting on my matched betting calculator. We can enter £169.20 as our ‘Cashback’ figure as this is the amount we expect to extract from our free bet refund should our qualifying bet lose…

Back Bet (Bookie)


Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)


Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £656.23…

188BET logo

Place £752.00 on Min @ 3.00 = Potential profit of £1,504.00

smarkets white

Lay £656.23 on Min @ 3.20 = Potential liability of £1,443.70

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Min wins + £1504.00 – £1443.70 = £60.30 profit
Min doesn't win - £752.00 + £643.10 + £169.20 (extract 90% from £188.00 refund) =£60.30 profit

So, regardless of the result of the race, we will make a guaranteed profit of £60.30 on this 188BET offer!

If our qualifying bet loses, the refunded stake will be credited by 07.00 on Wednesday 16th March 2016.

* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Min at back odds of 3.00 and lay odds of 3.20, meaning I made a profit of £60.30 on this 188BET offer. *


  1. Harvey

    These 188BET offers are really good but boy do you need a bankroll and so not great for those starting out lol

  2. Biggie

    The Arkle race at 14:00 has the horse Douvan racing at odds of 1.36. Wouldn’t it be better to pick that horse because then the lay requirements come down to about 260?

    1. Matt

      The lower the odds, the less profit we can guarantee mate. Backing Douvan at 1.36 and laying at 1.44, gives us a guaranteed profit of only £6.25.

  3. Nick

    Do we think it all has to be staked on one race, or could it be split across multiple races? And if so, and we won would that cancel out losses from other races?

    1. Matt

      It’s money back on net losses so we need to place one bet for the full amount.

      1. Nick


  4. James

    For once I actually got the fictional odds you came up with. Very happy. 🙂

    1. Matt

      Good stuff James, great offer this one.

  5. KennyM

    Hi. what do you mean by potential liability? as I understand Lay stake is different with liability. isn’t it? the real number you need to have in your exchange account is £1443.70 not 643.10. it means you need a bank of 752+1443.70 = £2195 which is really huge
    thank you

    1. Matt

      Yes that’s correct Kenny, our liability on the exchange lay bet was £1,443.70 and we also needed £752.00 to stake at the bookmaker. This was an unusual offer, in that ordinarily we’re not required to stake such large amounts. If an offer exceeds your bankroll, it’s best to just forget about it and move on to the next offer.

Post a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *