Potential
£419.04
 
Guaranteed
£75.29
 
My Profit
£419.04

Bet365 Grand National Offer – £75.29 Guaranteed Profit


Posted by Matt (administrator) Thu, Apr 9, 2015 06:04pm Matt
Start Time: 11/04/2015 16:15

Whatever you do this weekend, DO NOT MISS this Bet365 Grand National offer!  Simply place your bets on the Aintree Grand National 2015 between Thursday 9th April 2015 and midday on Saturday 11th April 2015 and Bet365 will give us half our stake back for every each-way bet we place, up to a maximum total refund of £125.00.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a minimum guaranteed profit of £75.29 and here’s how…

Bet365 Grand National

To qualify for this Bet365 Grand National offer, you must be an existing bet365 account holder and have opened your account before 23:59 on Wednesday 8th April 2015.  If you don’t already have an account, make sure you sign up to Bet365 today to make sure you don’t miss out on any big offers in the future.  Bet365 have the best welcome offer around (£200.00 matched deposit bonus) and their in-play offers on the biggest football matches are hugely profitable.

To add to the unbeatable value, Bet365 are also Non-Runner No Bet and paying 1/4 odds for the first FIVE places on the Aintree Grand National 2015!

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.

For this Bet365 Grand National offer, it makes sense to place our qualifying bet on the race favourite.  This will keep our outlay to a minimum.  Bet365 will refund the each way part of our qualifying bet up to a maximum of £125.00.  So in order to claim the maximum £125.00 refund, we need to place £125.00 each way on the favourite.  ‘Each way’ means that half of your total stake is placed on the horse to win at the normal odds and then the other half on it to finish in the top few places at 1/4 odds.  As mentioned above, Bet365 will pay out if your horse finishes in the first 5 places.

bet365

Place £125.00 EACH WAY on Shutthefrontdoor = Total stake of £250.00

If we break our Bet365 bet into two halves, we can now lay them at Betfair.  Don’t forget to use the matched betting calculator when working out your lay stakes…

Laying the ‘win’ part of our each way bet:

We placed £125.00 on Shutthefrontdoor to win @ 8.00 = Potential profit of £875.00

betfair

Lay £122.70 on Shutthefrontdoor (to win) @ 8.20 = Potential liability of £883.44

Laying the ‘place’ part of our each way bet:

We placed £125.00 on Shutthefrontdoor to place in the first 5 @ 2.75 = Potential profit of £218.75

*Just to clarify, as a few people have asked about this, the ‘To Place’ part of our each way will be paid out at 1/4 odds.  Shutthefrontdoor is priced at 8.00 to win, which in fractional form is 7/1. A quarter of 7/1 is 1.75/1 and therefore our odds in decimal form are 2.75.*

betfair

Lay £88.14 on Shutthefrontdoor (to place) @ 3.95 = Potential liability of £260.01

Let’s now have a look at our overall profit/loss for the three potential outcomes…

Shutthefrontdoor wins +£875.00 – £883.44 + £218.75 – £260.01 + £125.00 refund = £75.30 profit
Shutthefrontdoor finishes 2nd 3rd or 4th -£125.00 + £116.56 + £218.75 – £260.01 + £125.00 refund = £75.30 profit
Shutthefrontdoor finishes 5th -£125.00 + £116.56 + £218.75 + £83.73 + £125.00 refund = £419.04 profit
Shutthefrontdoor doesn't place -£125.00 + £116.56 – £125.00 + £83.73 + £125.00 refund = £75.29 profit

So, as you can see, no matter what the result of the race, we stand to make a minimum guaranteed profit of £75.29!

As mentioned earlier, Bet365 are paying 1/4 odds for the first 5 places.  The ‘To Place’ market on the Betfair Exchange is for the first 4 places.  This means that if Shutthefrontdoor finishes 5th, we’ll make a massive profit of £419.04 as both of our place bets will have won!

Comments


  1. Andy

    What a fantastic offer, thanks for posting!
    I have never placed an E/W bet before so I have a little question: where did you find the odds(@2.75) in the ‘place’ part of the bet?

  2. Alan

    Hi mate,
    Just a slight re-calc needed. You backed at 8.0 meaning place odds are 2.0 not 2.75 (unless im missing something)
    Al

    1. Matt

      Hi Alan, unfortunately it’s not as easy as dividing decimal odds by 4. You need to use the fractional odds and divide by 4. I’ve added a paragraph to the post for your reference mate.

  3. Andy

    Actually don’t worry. Just tried clicking on the text ‘To Return’, a new page containing everything I wanted to know popped up!

    1. Matt

      Great stuff Andy! I’ve added a short paragraph anyway for clarification on this as it can be a little confusing.

  4. Mark

    Does ‘liability’ mean thats how much you have to have in your account?

    1. Matt

      Hi Mark, yes that’s exactly right. You won’t be able to place your lay bets unless you have the funds in your account to cover the liability.

  5. Jack

    Hi I understand that whichever outcome results in a guaranteed profit, but is the profit payed out in free bets or cash?

    Thanks

    1. Matt

      Hi Jack, it’s all cash profit mate. No free bets involved with this one.

  6. Simon

    Great explanation as usual Matt, thank you. Wish I had a bigger float to do a few horses to try and get the 5th place….

    1. Matt

      No problem Simon. That would be nice, but it gets trickier as the odds get longer for other horses. It’s a big outlay but well worth the £75 profit!

  7. Jeremy

    The odds have drifted on the win and place market on betfair for shutthefrontdoor however bet365 price has stayed the same, what does one do now as the difference is quite a lot really when you re-calculate, do we wait for them to close up again?

    1. Matt

      Hi Jeremy, you can either recalculate and see how much profit is available at the current odds or you could wait. Waiting for the odds to shorten sounds like a good idea to me. They’re likely to shorten as more money goes on him.

  8. Chris

    Would it be okay to use these lay odds this morning?

    1. Matt

      Hi Chris. Follow my strategy but you will need to use up to date odds as they change all the time.

  9. Jordan

    Hi I’m new to this, do you mind telling me if my calculations are right with the current odds? Place 125 at odds of 8 on horse to win = 875 lay 114.29 at odds of 8.8 = 891 = £16 loss. 125 on horse to place at odds of 2.75 = 218.75, lay 80.88 at odds of 4.3 = 266.90 leaving a loss of £48, so £125 refund – losses of £48 + £16 leaves £61 profit? Is that correct? Thanks if you reply

    1. Matt

      Hi Jordan, yes you’ve got the right idea. Those figures look good to me.

  10. Daniel

    It would be better to back and lay a couple of horses at top of market this will result in your liability on betfair being reduced while still being entitled to the refund.

  11. Daniel

    I mean back and lay as in £25 e/w for example and build up to 125 e/w.

    1. Matt

      Hi Daniel. I like your thinking with this. It’s certainly a viable way of opening the offer up to those people with limited funds. You would probably be banking less guaranteed profit depending on how tight the back and lay odds are on each horse, but on the upside you would be increasing your chances of hitting that 5th place finish!

  12. Ant

    Hi, just to clarify…
    For the each way part of the lay (the second £125), which of the following lay markets do we use on Betfair:
    – each way
    – place
    – 5 places

    Slighly confused between the each way market and place markets, they each have different odds.

    Cheers

    Ant

    1. Matt

      Hi Ant. If you’re following my strategy and want the outside chance of £400+ if he finishes 5th, you will want to lay on the ‘Place’ market. If you want to lock in a bit more profit, there’s nothing stopping you laying on the ‘5 Places’ market for a lower liability, but you won’t stand to win big on the 5th place finish. Hope that helps.

      1. Ant

        Thanks Matt.

        So I avoid Betfairs ‘Each Way’ market altogether? (not sure if I follow why we don’t use this?).

        When you say ‘To Be Placed/To Place’, you’re talking about Betfairs ‘Place’ Market, right?

        Thanks

        1. Matt

          Yeah don’t worry about the ‘Each Way’ market. I’ve updated my previous comment to include the correct market names as per the desktop version you are obviously using. I was looking on their mobile site and they’ve given the markets different names for some reason. Just to confuse us no doubt!

        2. Ann

          Hi Matt, this looks like great stuff, but what are your thoughts on this option ?

          I’m hopeless at Maths and I realise it involves more of a gamble than a guarantee, but if we backed the top 2 horses here but only layed the win portion and let the place portions ride, could returns be nicer ?…..

        3. Matt

          Hi Ann. Feel free to go that way as the returns would certainly be nicer but for me it’s all about banking as much guaranteed profit as possible.

  13. Jon

    Great breakdown again Matt. Liability restricts me from going the whole way on this one, but took a couple of £25 EW bets.

    1. Matt

      Good man. It’s a large liability but splitting the offer on a couple of different horses certainly helps those with restricted funds.

  14. seb

    The odds have now changed to 9.00 so when dividing them to lay the place side of the bet you get 2/1 so are the odds in decimal format 3.00 ?

    1. Matt

      Yes that’s spot on mate.

  15. Alan

    Congratulations on your big win Matt. Amazing! a shame i opted for a larger overall profit and went 5 places on all the place lays. still nevermind!
    Al

    1. Matt

      I actually did the same thing in the end mate. There wasn’t a 5 place option when I first blogged it. Happy with the decision we made though. Best to bank as much guaranteed profit as we can.

  16. John

    SO CIVILISED! SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR CAME 5TH!!!!!

    1. Matt

      Haha congrats John! How much do you love the blog right now?!

      1. John

        I certainly do love it, although it’s sad to think that I may never make so much again from a matched bet. [I dream of making enough for a trip to Barbados though]

        1. Matt

          You never know! Keep plugging away mate and you’ll get there!

  17. Daniel

    Happy days, didn’t have £125 e/w on shutthefrontdoor, had £25 but still fantastic. Anyone that was able to have £125 e/w well done 🙂

    1. Matt

      Well done indeed!

  18. Nick

    Congratulations all around I think

    1. Matt

      Amen to that Nick!

  19. Perry

    Matt A great win again!! You crunched the numbers and worked your magic. Well done to all us winners!! Perry

    1. Matt

      Thanks Perry. Spread the word!

  20. Mikey

    Unbelievable jeff!

    1. Matt

      Quite a result wasn’t it. Not sure we’ll ever beat it!

      1. harris97

        We will this year! The offers back! A

        1. Matt

          Excellent news! I’ll get it blogged!

Leave a Reply


Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *