Kick-off time (GMT): 26/12/2016 : 15:10
It’s the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! If Cue Card wins the King George VI Chase, Ladbrokes will refund all losing mobile bets as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed minimum profit of £6.64 and here’s how…
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed via MOBILE or TABLET between 08:00 on Saturday 17th December 2016 and 15:10 (start of the race) on Monday 26th December 2016, to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on any horse other than Cue Card (6/4 joint favourite at the time of writing).
At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t yet available, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the race.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.22…
Place £25.00 on Thistlecrack @ 2.50= Potential profit of £37.50
Lay £24.22 on Thistlecrack @ 2.60 = Potential liability of £38.76
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Thistlecrack wins||+ £37.50 – £38.76 = £1.26 loss|
|Cue Card wins||- £25.00 + £23.74 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.74 profit|
|Another horse wins||- £25.00 + £23.74 = £1.26 loss|
So, as things stand, if Cue Card wins, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.74. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £1.26.
By placing an extra lay bet on Cue Card, we can actually guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide £20.00 (the amount we can expect to extract from our £25.00 free bet refund) by 2.48 (lay odds – 0.02 (to account for the 2% commission)) which gives us £8.06…
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Thistlecrack wins||- £1.26 + £7.90 = £6.64 profit|
|Cue Card wins||£18.74 – £12.09 = £6.65 profit|
|Another horse wins||- £1.26 + £7.90 = £6.64 profit|
So, regardless of the outcome, we’ll make a guaranteed minimum profit of £6.64 on this Ladbrokes offer.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Thistlecrack at back odds of 2.25 and lay odds of 2.38. I placed my extra lay bet on Cue Card at odds of 2.32, meaning I made an overall profit of £6.89 on this Ladbrokes offer. *