£18.45
Potential Profit
£-1.46
Actual Profit

Money Back Special (13:50 Newbury) – Sky Bet


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 18/05/2019 13:50

There’s a big day of racing at Newbury on Saturday and it’s time for another Sky Bet Money Back Special! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 13:50 at Newbury, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.45 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • This offer applies to our first bet on the 13:50 at York.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 14:00 on Friday 17th May 2019 and 13:50 (race-off) on Saturday 18th May 2019.
  • If fewer than nine runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £20.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd place finish.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for Red Impression in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Smarkets is likely to give us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £18.83…

Sky Bet logo

Place £20.00 on Red Impression @ 4.50 = Potential profit of £70.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £18.83 on Red Impression @ 4.80 = Potential liability of £71.55

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeCashbackProfit/Loss
Red Impression wins+£70.00-£71.55£1.55 loss
Red Impression finishes 2nd or 3rd-£20.00+£18.45+£20.00£18.45 profit
Red Impression finishes outside top 3-£20.00+£18.45£1.55 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.45 if Red Impression finishes 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose £1.55 on any other outcome. Risking £1.55 to make a profit of £18.45 gives us effective odds of 12.90, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.

* Red Impression was available at back odds of 4.333 and lay odds of 4.60. Red Impression finished outside the top 3, resulting in a loss of £1.46 on this Sky Bet offer. *

Comments


  1. Scott

    10

    Odds have really come away for this, too big a gap imo 🙁

    +0
    Reply
  2. Nick

    Guest user

    I backed at 4.5 this morning and haven’t layed yet. Smarkets is 4.6 lay now.
    Done this a few times and it pays off usually but I guess there’s an element of risk to it.

    +0
    Reply
    1. Alex

      Guest user

      Odds almost always drop for an arb situation in the last 2-3 minutes.

      +0
      Reply
  3. Scott

    10

    It came in too, haha. Was a £3.50 loss when I checked last night and this morning. Betting then waiting to lay feels properly risky?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Scott

      10

      How odd, I could have sworn I saw this come in 3rd earlier when I was watching the rendered thing some bookies put up. Must be going mad/blind or both.

      +0
      Reply

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