Potential
£14.78
 
Guaranteed
- -
 
My Profit
£4.03

Sky Bet Offer – 1.50 Naas (Sunday)


Posted by Matt (administrator) Sun, Jan 8, 2017 09:01am Matt
Start Time: 08/01/2017 13:50

There’s a big day of racing at Naas today and it’s time for another Sky Bet First Race Special! If our horse finishes 2nd in the 1.50 at Naas, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £14.78 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd place finish.

Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on the favourite, Death Duty.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.16…

skybet

Place £20.00 on Death Duty @ 1.571 = Potential profit of £11.42

smarkets white

Lay £19.16 on Death Duty @ 1.66 = Potential liability of £12.64

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Death Duty wins + £11.42 – £12.64 = £1.22 loss
Death Duty places 2nd - £20.00 + £18.78 + £16.00 (extract 80% from our £20.00 free bet) = £14.78 profit
Death Duty finishes outside top 2 - £20.00 + £18.78 = £1.22 loss

So, we will make a nice profit of £14.78 if Death Duty places 2nd and we stand to lose £1.22 on any other outcome. Risking £1.22 to make a profit of £14.78 gives us effective odds of 13.11, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £20.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* Death Duty won the race at odds of 1.833. Due to their best odds guarantee, I made a profit of £4.03 on this Sky Bet offer. *

Comments


  1. Martin

    You’ve said on this offer you place a bet of £25. Shouldn’t it just be a £20 bet?

    1. Matt

      Yes it should mate, slight typo there!

  2. Fran

    Nice odds on Death Duty at the moment (1.62 vs 1.66). I’ve underlaid slightly, so will break even if it wins and could lose about £1.50 if it places third or lower.

  3. Rick

    If Ruby hadn’t done his usual trick of falling at the last would have had this (Death Duty in 2nd)!

  4. JB

    Matt, if you took the odds as you mentioned then SB would have given you Best odds guaranteed of 5/6 from 4/7, making 5.10 profit.

    1. Danny

      I did this and made a nice profit of around £5.

      Easy money!!

    2. Matt

      You’re quite right mate, I stand corrected!

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