Sky Bet Offer – 14:30 Royal Ascot (Tuesday)

June 18, 2017 / Horse Racing / 15 Comments

Event Start Time (GMT): 20/06/2017 : 14:30

Guaranteed profit
£12.00+

Royal Ascot 2017 gets underway on Tuesday and Sky Bet are getting involved with another First Race Special! Simply place a bet on the Queen Anne Stakes (14:30) at Royal Ascot on Tuesday and if it loses, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £12.00+ and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 14:00 on Friday 16th June 2017 and 14:30 on Tuesday 20th June 2017, to be eligible.

Losing stakes are refunded as a free bet, so this is effectively a risk-free offer. We therefore need to select a horse with long odds. At the time of writing, the lay odds are unavailable, so I’ll use fictional odds for Mutakayyef in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the race.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can work out our lay stake by using the ‘Risk-Free Bet’ setting on my matched betting calculator. We can enter £16.00 as our ‘Cashback’ figure as this is the amount we can expect to extract (80%) from our £20.00 free bet refund, should our horse lose…


Select bet type:

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Adjust your lay stake

Min £
Max £

Lay stake required: £

Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £17.18…

Sky Bet logo

Place £20.00 on Mutakayyef @ 8.00 = Potential profit of £140.00

smarkets white

Lay £17.18 on Mutakayyef @ 8.40 = Potential liability of £127.13

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Mutakayyef wins + £140.00 – £127.13 = £12.87 profit
Mutakayyef doesn't win - £20.00 + £16.83 + £16.00 (extract 80% from our £20.00 free bet) = £12.83 profit

So, regardless of the result of the race and with some good odds, we should make a guaranteed profit of £12.00+ on this Sky Bet offer!

If our selection loses, our free bet will be credited within 24 hours of the race ending and will be valid for 3 days.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from a £20.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Lightning Spear at back odds of 7.50 and lay odds of 7.60. Lightning Spear didn’t win the race, meaning I made a guaranteed profit of £13.32 on this Sky Bet offer. *

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15 Comments

  1. Joshua

    June 18, 2017
    / Reply

    Hi Matt, good offer at Redbet coming up with certain confederations games, £25 pre-match on match winner for £10 in-play bet, first one is this evening Portugal v.s Mexico.

    • Matt

      Matt

      June 19, 2017
      / Reply

      Thanks Joshua.

  2. Jon

    June 19, 2017
    / Reply

    For this offer could you just back a horse to win without laying it then if it wins at say 5/1 you get £100 profit and if it doesn't you get your £20 back and then extract 80% from the free bet or will that not work?

    • deezer53

      June 19, 2017
      / Reply

      No that wouldnt work because if your horse lost you would be £20 down then extracting 80% of the free bet would leave you with £16 so youd be £4 down overall.

    • Alex

      June 19, 2017
      / Reply

      Like deezer said, if your horse doesn't win you would be around £4 down. However by not laying you're gambling for a bigger profit and obviously a £4 loss to make £100 on a horse at 5/1 is going to make you money long term, it's just not guaranteed.

    • Matt

      Matt

      June 19, 2017
      / Reply

      The guys are right Jon. There's nothing wrong with doing it the way you've suggested, so long as you understand that you're effectively risking £16.00 (£4.00 qualifying loss + £12.00 guaranteed profit) to make the bigger potential returns.

  3. Jon

    June 19, 2017
    / Reply

    Yes I understand it now. Thanks for the advice

    • Jon

      June 19, 2017
      / Reply

      Also for this offer do you have to place it on the day of the race or just when the market goes live?

      • deezer53

        June 19, 2017
        / Reply

        It will tell you in the T & Cs what the exact terms are but usually you can place a bet anytime up until the race starts.

      • Matt

        Matt

        June 19, 2017
        / Reply

        This is explained in the post Jon. It's important that you get into the habit of reading the terms and conditions of offers thoroughly.

  4. Dave

    June 19, 2017
    / Reply

    Best to go for high odds as possible. Makes more easy to make a profit. At this moment one horse odds is 29 (bet £20) and can lay odds at 32 and lay £17.40 This will give a profit of about £17 win or lose.

    • Matt

      Matt

      June 20, 2017
      / Reply

      Those odds should give you a guaranteed profit of £13.16 Dave.

  5. Andy

    June 20, 2017
    / Reply

    Using the calculator in risk free mode it shows a profit of £12.85 (average) with a £16 cash-back, but if cash-back is set to £0 (like a qualifying bet) the loss is about £-1.28, then adding back the possible £16 extracted from the free bet would give a profit of £14.72. Sorry if this question has been asked before, but why are these two outcomes different?

    • Matt

      Matt

      June 20, 2017
      / Reply

      You can do a straightforward back and lay for a greater potential profit if you wish Andy. The downside to that is if your horse wins, you'll make a small loss. Underlaying allows us to lock in a profit regardless of the outcome.

  6. Jamie

    June 20, 2017
    / Reply

    Damn just tried to do this and I'm stake restricted on all but the favourite. So I'm gonna lay it as a qualifying bet and just hope he doesnt win


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