Potential
£46.88
 
Guaranteed
- -
 
My Profit
£6.02

Betfair Offer – US Open 2016 Double Odds


Posted by Matt (administrator) Thu, Sep 1, 2016 07:09am Matt
Start Time: 29/08/2016 16:00

The US Open 2016 is underway and you don’t want to miss this Betfair Sportsbook offer. Place a bet on any US Open Singles Match Odds market and if our selection loses the 1st set, but wins the match, Betfair will double our odds. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £46.88 and here’s how…

Betfair Offer - US Open 2016 Double Odds

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

In order to be eligible for this offer, our £25.00 (max.) qualifying bet must be placed pre-match on the Match Odds market of any Men’s or Women’s Singles matches. If our selection loses the 1st set but goes on to win the match, Betfair will double our odds. Winnings will be paid in cash at the normal price and then topped up to double odds with free bets. So, for example, if we place £25.00 on a winning selection at odds of 2.00 (evens), we would receive £50.00 in cash and £25.00 in free bets.

Having looked at the odds available for today’s play, I’ve opted to place one of my qualifying bets on Viktor Troicki beating Jared Donaldson.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.44…

betfair

Place £25.00 on Viktor Troicki @ 1.75 = Potential profit of £18.75

smarkets white

Lay £24.44 on Viktor Troicki @ 1.81 = Potential liability of £19.80

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Troicki wins having won the 1st set + £18.75 – £19.80 = £1.05 loss
Troicki wins having lost the 1st set + £18.75 – £19.80 + £15.00 (80% extracted from £18.75 free bet) = £13.95 profit
Troicki doesn't win - £25.00 + £23.95 = £1.05 loss

So, if Viktor Troicki loses the first set and goes on to win the match, we’ll make a nice profit of £13.95 on this Betfair offer! Any other outcome and we’ll have made a small loss of £1.05. Risking £1.05 to make a profit of £13.95, gives us effective odds of 14.29, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

This offer is available on all US Open Singles matches, giving us a potential overall profit of £46.88!

I’ll update the following table throughout the week with my selections…

Match Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Effective Odds Profit/Loss
Mathieu v Mahut Mahut 1.533 1.58 11.58 - £0.92
Carreno-Busta v Tipsarevic Carreno-Busta 1.444 1.45 34.15 + £8.62
Troicki v Donaldson Troicki 1.75 1.81 14.29 - £1.05
Jack Sock v Marin Cilic Cilic 1.36 1.36 54.38 - £0.13
John Isner v Kyle Edmund Isner 1.40 1.42 16.00 - £0.50

Free bets will be credited within 12 hours of each match ending and will be valid for 48 hours. Free bet stakes are not returned with any winnings.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from any free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

Comments


  1. orlandosteve

    Great offer. Women’s singles tend to be good bets where a player will lose the 1st but win the match. Serena Williams does it a lot.

  2. Adam

    Is this offer restricted to one ‘use’??

  3. sleepless

    Good luck in finding decent back & lay odds where matches are close.

  4. Macca

    Dutching works well with this, backed Troicki for £25 with BF @ 1.75 and Donaldson for £19 split between Tonybet and 888 @ 2.3 – Qual loss of 27p

  5. bulltruck

    Hey mate, great offer! One quick question is that I’ve found this in the T&C’s.

    “In cases where more than one selection is placed on the same bet slip, the selection with the lowest bet reference number counts towards this offer.”

    Does that mean we can only have one selection at a time? i.e wait for a game to finish before placing the next bet?

  6. Luke Radford

    You can only get this offer once

    1. James

      Once per match, yes.
      I’ve been doing 15+ over the last 2 days. First day I won £47 in free bets and second I won £15.25.
      Great offer.
      Would also advise the Sportingbet 5 set offer. Their rules tie up with the exchanges.
      Or you could dutch bets with other bookies that are doing 5 set offers.

      1. Pj

        I’ve just had a live chat & they said this offer was only available once & I couldn’t get the offer on another match today.

        1. James

          I promise you I recieved multiple free bets on the last two days…
          My £47.50 free bets were made up of 4 x £10 and 1 x £7.50 – so 5 matches.

        2. Macca

          The free bet is paid as multiples of £10 plus the balance. I had a freebie yesterday for a selection @ 2.5 so I was due a freebie of £37.50 (2.5 * £25 = £62.50 less stake = £37.50). I got the free bets as 3 x £10 and a £7.50, the £10 ones were dated yesterday and the £7.50 dated today. Did you have multiple bets that qualified or just the one and also check your bet odds, if a qualifier was @2.9, then you would have been due £47.50, split as I described. The terms do say: “All customer offers are limited to one per person,….”

        3. James

          That’s all well and good but today I got one free bet £15.25 ?
          I see your point though and I’m starting to think the same. Just doesn’t make sense to me. Live chat are terrible, they haven’t got a clue – the guy on there just said that as they came in multiple free bets they were most likely from different selections.
          I’m not so sure now!

        4. James

          Also, just checked and the day before I got a free bet of £22.75 from this offer…

      2. Luke Radford

        Is that net of any qualifying bet losses?

        1. James

          No, that’s just the free bets. It’s around £30 profit give or take.

        2. Luke Radford

          Betfair are adomant its only the first bet that you get the free bet on.

          Matteo: It applies to the first cash bet struck on the match odds market

        3. James

          I’m not sure what to say because I have the screen in front of me and I’ve had 5 free bets in the last 2 days on that offer.
          Shall I go on live chat and ask? Tell them to check my account? Not sure if that’s suspicious or not, but we could do with getting this cleared up!!

  7. Tom L

    What if you backed one player but waited until after the first set to lay? Then if your selection won the first set the lay odds would drop and you’d be able to make a guaranteed profit (or risk free potential profit depending on your preference), and if your selection loses the first set you know you’ll trigger the enhanced odds and so can work out your effective back odds, which will hopefully be higher than the lay. I don’t know how much the lay odds rise when someone loses the first set, but assuming it’s not a ridiculous jump this would be a valid method wouldn’t it?

    1. Deep

      Good point sounds good wonder what others think ?

    2. Andy Mathews

      Sounds sort of feasible , can u give me an example with numbers in?

    3. Matt

      In theory, if your selection wins the first set, you can lay as normal to guarantee a profit. Most of our selections will be pre-match favourites, so any profits are likely to be small. The problem with waiting until after the first set is that if your selection loses the first set, the lay odds are likely to be longer than your effective back odds, which could leave you open to a big loss. Say, for example, you back Andy Murray at 1.40 and he loses the first set… Your effective back odds are now 1.72, but we’ve no way of knowing what the lay odds are likely to be at that stage.

  8. Martin Burdett

    Hello, Betfair have just told me ‘It applies to the first cash bet struck on the match odds market.’

    Does this mean just one then?

    1. Ali

      I would read that as ‘per match’

  9. Deep

    Matt what do you think about what Tom London says ?

  10. james

    FYI – today I got two free bets. One was £11 and one was £18.75

    I’m assuming you can get multiple free bets.

    1. Matt

      Thanks for letting us know James. This was the case when they ran it for Wimbledon too.

  11. sleepless

    How are you guys finding decent back & lay odds?

    1. Macca

      I’m dutching between two or sometimes three bookies (three if the back stake is not a round number), qual losses on a £25 back on Betfair is usually between 25p and 75p. Up till now 888 or Unibet seem to have odds which dutch well with Betfair.

  12. Tom

    Hi

    I should have received two free bets yesterday however only got one, spoke to people at Betfair and they told me you can only receive one a day but some of you are stating this isn’t the case and have received more, what do you advise I do about this?

    Thanks
    Tom

  13. Hat

    I placed 4 bets yesterday, “qualified” with 1 of them, and have been told (via the live chat) that I am not eligible for any free bets since it wasn’t my first bet that won, due to “first bet struck on match odds market” clause. I haven’t received any free bets.

    Also, it seems there are two promotions, one which was only valid on 29th July, and is the one currently being advertised on their site – see under T’s and C’s. There is another one running alongside, which is valid for all days, apparently, but I couldn’t find that on the site, only by being told on the live chat.

    Bit of a waste of time for me this one I’m afraid, and Betfair seem to be a bit misleading on this.

    1. Macca

      Placed two bets the other day the second one I placed qualified and I got a free bet from it

  14. bawpie

    I placed and laid two bets yesterday, one qualified (which was the second bet I placed) and I got 2 free bets back.

  15. Mr Me

    Well I backed Warwinka last night, betfair are claiming the promo was for bets on 29th August only. Tw points i will raise with them. They have been crediting bets past that date up until now. Secondly why were they promoting the offer last night on their website with a big banner if it finished 29th August.

    1. Matt

      Yes we’ve had a few conflicting stories from Betfair during the tournament, that’s why I decided to stop the post early. Stand your ground Mr Me.

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