Bet X, Get Y if…

Level: Next steps
Updated: September 19, 2022

‘Bet X, Get Y if…’ offers are becoming increasingly popular with bookmakers, so it’s an offer you’ll want to know how to beat.

This guide will explain what ‘Bet X, Get Y if…’ offers are and show you how to calculate their value and take advantage.

What is a ‘Bet X, Get Y if…’ offer?

‘Bet X, Get Y if…’ offers are pretty straightforward. You place a qualifying bet on a selected event, and the bookmaker will reward you if a particular trigger occurs.

The reward is usually a free bet, but it could also be a bonus or free spins.

Example ‘Bet X, Get Y if…’ offers

Most’ Bet X, Get Y if…’ offers feature football matches, and the triggers vary greatly. Here are some examples you might see.

£5 free bet if…

…Arsenal win
…Lukaku scores
…there are over 2.5 goals
…a goal is scored after 85 minutes
…a red card is shown
…both teams score
… it’s a score draw

£1 free bet for every…

…goal scored
…card shown
…corner

Here are some trigger examples you might see for other sports.

£5 free bet if…

… there’s an official knockdown (Boxing)
…your player wins in five sets (Tennis)

£1 free bet every time your player…

…throws a 180 (Darts)
…makes a century break (Snooker)

Get paid as a winner if…

…your horse finishes 2nd (Horse Racing)

You can find a comprehensive list of available ‘Bet X, Get Y if…’ offers on my Reload Offers Calendar. Click ‘Filters‘ at the top and select ‘Bet X, Get Y if…‘ from the ‘Offer type‘ dropdown.

How do ‘Bet X, Get Y if…’ offers work?

‘Bet X, Get Y if…’ offers work the same across all sports and are pretty straightforward to do. To be eligible for the potential reward, you’ll need to place a qualifying bet on the selected event.

If the trigger hits, you’ll receive your reward; otherwise, it’s time to move on to the next offer.

This type of offer is all about securing an acceptable qualifying loss. Some triggers are more likely to hit than others, so you’ll need to weigh up each offer to see if it’s worth doing. Don’t worry; I’ll take you through that process shortly.

How to profit from ‘Bet X, Get Y if…’ offers

Let’s look at a ‘Bet X, Get Y if…’ offer run by Betfred.

Betfred

You must always read the terms and conditions thoroughly before getting involved. Here are the main points to note for this Betfred offer.

  • Offer applies to pre-match single bets placed on West Ham v Leicester.
  • Minimum stake of £10.
  • Minimum odds of 1.50 (1/2).
  • £5 free bet if there are over 2.5 goals in the match.

So, there’s nothing too troublesome about this offer. Place an eligible bet on West Ham v Leicester, and if there are three or more goals in the match, Betfred will give you a £5 free bet.

Step 1: Check the odds at Betfred

Before you place any bets, you need to ask yourself, ‘Is there value in this offer?’ To work that out, you need to know what odds are available. Here are the Match Result odds for West Ham v Leicester at Betfred.

Betfred

Step 2: Check the lay odds at the exchanges

It’s entirely up to you which betting exchange you use to lay your bet. Your decision will likely depend on the commission rate you pay at each exchange and the lay odds available.

Here are the lay odds for West Ham v Leicester at Betfair.

Betfair

Step 3: Check the trigger odds

It helps to know how likely the trigger is to hit. You can check the bookmaker and exchange markets for a common trigger like this one. Here are the odds at Betfred and Betfair for over 2.5 goals in the match.

Betfred
Betfair

You don’t need to check the odds at both the bookmaker and exchange; one will do. The exchange odds are closest to the true odds as they don’t include a profit margin.

If you’re doing an offer where the trigger is more obscure, you may struggle to find odds for it. In that case, you’ll need to use your gut to gauge whether or not the offer is worth doing.

Step 4: Assess the value of the offer

A potential free bet doesn’t always mean an offer is profitable. Now you have some back and lay odds; you can work out whether or not this offer is worth doing.

Looking at the Match Odds above, West Ham are the best option with back odds of 2.60 and lay odds of 2.66.

Let’s enter those numbers into my Matched Betting Calculator.

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)

Advanced
%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells you your maximum qualifying loss is £0.54.

If over 2.5 goals are scored in the match, you’ll receive a £5 free bet, which you should convert into 80% cash, so £4. Considering your minimum qualifying loss of £0.53 gives you a potential profit of £3.47 on this Betfred offer.

You can now work out your effective odds for this offer.

£3.47 (potential profit) ÷ £0.54 (max. qualifying loss) = 6.43
6.43 + 1.00 (stake) = 7.43 (effective odds)

As you can see, risking £0.54 to make a potential profit of £3.47 gives you effective odds of 7.43.

So, given that the odds are just 1.86 for over 2.5 goals, there’s plenty of value in doing this offer.

Step 5: Place your bet at Betfred

Now you know the offer has value, you can go ahead and place your bets. So, you would place the minimum stake of £10 on West Ham at Betfred.

Betfred logo

Place £10.00 on West Ham @ 2.60 = Potential profit of £16.00

Step 6: Place your lay bet at the exchange

The calculator above tells you to lay £9.96 against West Ham.

Betfair logo

Lay £9.96 against West Ham @ 2.66 = Potential liability of £16.53

Let’s look at your overall profit/loss for each possible outcome.

OutcomeBetfredBetfairProfit/Loss
West Ham win+ £16.00– £16.53£0.53 loss
West Ham lose or draw– £10.00+ £9.46£0.54 loss

So, no matter the outcome, you’ll make a maximum loss of £0.54 in qualifying for your potential profit of £3.47.

You now need to keep your fingers crossed for over 2.5 goals and that £5 free bet!

Laying the trigger

Suppose there is a lay market available for the specified trigger. In that case, you have the option of laying the trigger and locking in a profit. You might not feel this is worth doing; it will depend on the odds and personal preference.

Here are the lay odds at Betfair again for over 2.5 goals in the match.

Betfair

You can calculate your trigger lay stake as follows.

£0.54 (qualifying loss) + £3.47 (potential profit) = £4.01
1.87 (lay odds) – 0.05 (5% commission) = 1.82
£4.01 ÷ 1.82 = £2.20 (lay stake)

So, you need to lay £2.20 against ‘Over 2.5 Goals‘.

Betfair logo

Lay £2.20 against ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ @ 1.87 = Potential liability of £1.91

Let’s look at your overall profit/loss for each possible outcome.

OutcomeBetfredBetfairFree BetProfit/Loss
West Ham win and
over 2.5 goals
+ £16.00– £18.44+ £4.00£1.56 profit
West Ham win and
under 2.5 goals
+ £16.00– £14.33£1.67 profit
West Ham lose or draw
and over 2.5 goals
– £10.00+ £7.65+ £4.00£1.65 profit
West Ham lose or draw
and under 2.5 goals
– £10.00+ £11.55£1.55 profit

So, no matter the outcome, you’ll make a minimum fixed profit of £1.55 on this Betfred offer.

Final words

If you see an offer with a decent trigger, see if you can find a qualifying bet that makes the offer worthwhile. If you can’t find suitable odds, walk away and look for another opportunity.

I tend not to lay the triggers, but if you’d prefer a smaller fixed profit, the option is there.

‘Bet X, Get Y if…’ offers are here to stay, so the sooner you get to grips with them, the sooner you can start taking advantage and bagging those profits!

Learn matched betting the free, easy way.

The Matched Betting Academy

  • Logically structured to tackle strategies and offers as you’re ready for them.
  • Bag profits every step of the way. About £650 from welcome offers, and another £500 monthly.
  • Make £15 from your very first offer.
Screenshot of the Matched Betting Academy

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £60,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.