Chelsea host Man City in Saturday’s late kick-off and you don’t want to miss this 10Bet offer. Simply place a £10.00+ win single on the ‘1X2 FT’ market for Chelsea v Man City and if our team wins both halves, 10Bet will double our winnings up to £30.00, in free bets! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £22.80 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:00 on Thursday 28th September 2017 and 17:30 (kick-off) on Saturday 30th September 2017, to be eligible.
To qualify, we must bet £10.00+ on the 1X2 FT market. If our team wins the first half and then goes on to win the second half, 10Bet will double our winnings in free bets.
NOTE: The To Win Both Halves and Half-Time/Full-Time markets are different. A team can be leading at half-time and full-time without having won both halves, as shown in the following table…
| HT/FT Scores | Win Both Halves | Half-Time/Full-Time |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0/1-0 | No | No |
| 1-0/1-0 | No | Yes |
| 1-0/2-0 | Yes | Yes |
The maximum free bet is £30.00 and this will be credited within 24 hours of our bet being settled. Free bets will be valid for 7 days and must be placed at odds between 1.80 (4/5) and 8.00 (7/1). Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
It’s entirely up to you which team you go for. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Chelsea.
In order to work out our back stake, we need to divide £30.00 by 1.55 (back odds minus 1.00). This gives us a back stake of £19.35. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so I’ll be staking £20.00 instead.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.17…
Place £20.00 on Chelsea @ 2.55 = Potential profit of £31.00
Lay £19.17 on Chelsea @ 2.68 = Potential liability of £32.20
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Chelsea win the match but not both halves | + £31.00 – £32.20 = £1.20 loss |
| Chelsea win the match having won both halves | + £31.00 – £32.20 + £24.00 (80% extracted from £30.00 free bet) = £22.80 profit |
| Chelsea don’t win the match | – £20.00 + £18.78 = £1.22 loss |
So, if Chelsea win both halves, we’ll make a nice profit of £22.80. Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £1.22. Risking £1.22 to make a profit of £22.80, gives us effective odds of 19.69. So, given that Chelsea are odds of around 8.00 to win both halves, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
NOTE: We can actually make this offer risk-free by placing an extra lay bet on our selected team to ‘win both halves’ on the Betfair Exchange. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide our potential qualifying loss by 0.95 (to account for the 5% commission).
If the odds are decent pre-match or if our selection is winning at half-time, we can actually overlay to guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. To calculate our overlay stake, we would just need to divide the amount we can expect to extract from our free bet by the lay odds (minus 0.05 to account for the 5% commission). So, using the above figures as an example, if the lay odds were 7.00, we would divide £24.00 by 6.95, giving us an overlay stake of £3.46 and a guaranteed profit of £2.04.
* Chelsea lost the match 1-0, having been drawing 0-0 at half-time, meaning I made a loss of £1.22 on this 10Bet offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.