Germany get their Euro 2016 campaign underway against Ukraine tonight and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If Thomas Muller scores at any time during Germany v Ukraine, 188BET will refund losing pre-match First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Both Teams To Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £21.40 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match to be eligible.
We need to select a Correct Score that sees Ukraine keep a clean sheet. This ensures that if Thomas Muller scores for Germany, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.
If you can’t find suitable odds in the Correct Score market, you should be able to find a close match in the Both Teams To Score market, although you would need your selection to lose in the event that Muller gets on the scoresheet.
It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on, but having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on the game being a 0-0 draw.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.11…
Place £25.00 on a 0-0 draw @ 12.00 = Potential profit of £275.00
Lay £23.11 on a 0-0 draw @ 13.00 = Potential liability of £277.35
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
0-0 draw | + £275.00 – £277.35 = £2.35 loss |
Not a 0-0 draw and Muller scores | – £25.00 + £22.65 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £21.40 profit |
Not a 0-0 draw and Muller doesn’t score | – £25.00 + £22.65 = £2.35 loss |
So, if the game isn’t a 0-0 draw and Thomas Muller scores, we will make a nice profit of £21.40. If the game is a 0-0 draw or Muller doesn’t score, we’ll have made a loss of £2.35. Risking £2.35 to make a profit of £21.40, gives us effective odds of 10.11, so given that the odds of Muller scoring are 2.00 (evens), this is a profitable offer in the long run.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘muller25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Monday 13th June 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.