188BET Offer – Southampton v Liverpool

January 11, 2017 / Football / 3 Comments

Kick-off time (GMT): 11/01/2017 : 19:45

Potential profit
£22.72
My profit £-1.03

Southampton host Liverpool in the EFL Cup Semi-Finals tonight and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If a red card is shown at any time during Southampton v Liverpool, 188BET will refund losing pre-match 1×2, First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Both Teams To Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £22.72 and here’s how…

southampton v liverpool - 188bet offer

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Tuesday 10th January 2017 and 19:45 (kick-off) on Wednesday 11th January 2017 to be eligible.

There is no way of making this offer risk-free so only get involved if you’re comfortable with your qualifying loss.

Only losing bets will be refunded in the event that a red card is shown, so we need to place our qualifying bet on a selection that we don’t think will win. We also need to place it at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss.

It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Southampton in the ‘1 X 2’ market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…


Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Adjust your lay stake

Min £
Max £

Lay stake required: £

Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.46…

188bet

Place £25.00 on Southampton @ 3.60 = Potential profit of £65.00

smarkets whiteLay £24.46 on Southampton @ 3.70 = Potential liability of £66.03

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Southampton win + £65.00 – £66.03 = £1.03 loss
Southampton don't win and a red card is shown - £25.00 + £23.97 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £22.72 profit
Southampton don't win and no red card is shown - £25.00 + £23.97 = £1.03 loss

So, if Southampton don’t win and a red card is shown, we’ll make a nice profit of £22.72. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £1.03. Risking £1.03 to make a profit of £22.72, gives us effective odds of 23.06, so given that the odds of a red card being shown are only 4.50, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Southampton not to win.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘SL25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188bet.co.uk using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Thursday 12th January 2017. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.

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3 Comments

  1. GGG

    January 11, 2017
    / Reply

    Referee: NEIL SWARBRICK red cards so far this season = 0

    • GGG

      January 11, 2017
      / Reply

      Sending off odds on Betfair :
      YES 7.2/7.6
      NO 1.15/1.16

      • George

        January 11, 2017
        / Reply

        Actual number of red cards in the cup so far: 7
        Number of games so far: 61

        Roughly 11% chance of happening.

        So actual odds of about 9.0 to 10.0 of happening


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