Potential
£21.75
 
Guaranteed
- -
 
My Profit
£21.75

188BET Offer – West Ham v Man Utd


Posted by Matt (administrator) Mon, Jan 2, 2017 10:01am Matt
Start Time: 02/01/2017 17:15

West Ham face Man Utd in today’s late kick-off and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If a red card is shown at any time during West Ham v Man Utd, 188BET will refund losing pre-match 1×2, First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Both Teams To Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £21.75 and here’s how…

west-ham-v-man-utd-188bet-offer

Qualifying Bet:

This offer is not available to customers who have claimed the “Bet £10 Get £30” welcome offer (FREE30).

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Sunday 1st January 2017 and 17:15 (kick-off) on Monday 2nd January 2017 to be eligible.

There is no way of making this offer risk-free so only get involved if you’re comfortable with your qualifying loss.

Only losing bets will be refunded in the event that a red card is shown, so we need to place our qualifying bet on a selection that we don’t think will win. We also need to place it at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss.

It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a draw in the ‘1 X 2’ market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.47…

188bet

Place £25.00 on a draw @ 4.30 = Potential profit of £82.50

smarkets whiteLay £23.47 on a draw @ 4.60 = Potential liability of £84.50

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Draw + £82.50 – £84.50 = £2.00 loss
Not a draw and red card shown - £25.00 + £23.00 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £21.75 profit
Not a draw and no red card shown - £25.00 + £23.00 = £2.00 loss

So, if the game isn’t drawn and a red card is shown, we’ll make a nice profit of £21.75. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £2.00. Risking £2.00 to make a profit of £21.75, gives us effective odds of 11.88, so given that the odds of a red card being shown are only 4.00, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need either team to win.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘WHM25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188bet.co.uk using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Tuesday 3rd January 2017. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.

Comments


  1. RDYMXDKONKRETE

    This offer is not available to customers who have claimed the “Bet £10 Get £30” welcome offer (FREE30).

    So that would be like…. everybody!

  2. bsyne

    In plain english for NEW CUSTOMERS only 🙂

    1. Matt

      Or those that opened their 188BET account prior to the ‘FREE30’ welcome offer.

    2. Tony S

      The opposite really… NOT for new customers

  3. Tony S

    Boom!… just how I like it

    1. Ali

      Just not at a draw…

  4. Christopher Pad

    T&C’s say the stake is not returned, and ive talked to live chat in past about two of these offers and they said the same aswell. Worth mentioning for those that don’t bother to check the T&C’s

    1. Matt

      The free bets distributed by 188BET have been the subject of debate for some time. You’re correct though Christopher, in that they seem to have added a new term confirming that free bet stakes are not returned. I’ll amend this and future posts.

  5. Ryanb

    Same just praying its not a draw as well

  6. Deep

    We could lay draw now for guaranteed profit no?

    1. Ali

      Yes we could. However, it may be a bit early?

      1. Deep

        I’ve locked on £16 guaranteed profit
        £4 at 5.2 on draw

    2. Bob (bobster)

      Wow thanks for pointing this out! Locked in my profit now too!

    3. Bob (bobster)

      Although I think you meant BACK draw, not LAY

      1. Deep

        Yes I meant back draw 🙂

      2. RyanB

        Thats why I asked what his qualifying bet was, I hope it wasn’t a draw. Or he will pay out on the liability AND not get a free bet either….

        I was tempted to lay Man Utd – if they win you lose the liability but you gain the free bet. If it stays a draw you don’t get the free bet but obviously win your Man Utd lay bet.

  7. Tony S

    I’m on X/2 ?… please god don’t smite me this way!!

  8. RyanB

    Deep, what was your qualifying bet on?

    1. Deep

      On the draw
      So I will get FB if it isn’t a draw
      Play backing draw I’ve locked in profit as if it’s now a draw I win on exchange

  9. Kieran

    Got west ham just before kick off 6.6/6.6 for a loss of 43p just need man utd to start scoring for betway purposes then this can be a very successful match

  10. Tony S

    FML

  11. Chris

    Not to sound like a matched betting snob but some of you need to live a little with your bets. Laying the draw at half time when one of the in form teams in the league has a man up with 45 minutes to play was a bit hasty.

    1. Bob (bobster)

      I think there’s just two different camps of people. One is quite comfortable with some gambling now and again, or even almost all the time (e.g. “no lay” acca strategy), and trying to beat the bookies in the traditional way. The other camp are people who wouldn’t dream of actually gambling any money, and are just using matched betting as a risk free method of making money. I prefer the latter – no stress, just risk free money.

    2. Bob (bobster)

      Also, on a gambling note, have you not met Man U in the past 5 years?! There’s no guarantees of them putting in a performance even when the odds are in their favour.

      1. Deep

        My thoughts exactly Bob 🙂

  12. Rick

    Just a heads up. I thought I’d taken up this welcome offer so didnt bet, but just checked on the livechat. Turns out I hadn’t, I’d taken up a £25 free bet offer so would be grand in the future for similar offers. Bit annoying I missed out this time thought I’d let you guys know , just in case anyone else is in the same situation.

  13. BiggieB

    Anyone still waiting to get paid back the £25 free bet after emailing their promo team? I did it on the night and still haven’t heard anything.

    1. Ali

      Also waiting, it does say within 48 hours of receiving a successful claim email so guess they have a bit longer to go.

      1. BiggieB

        Ok thats fine then, I just realised they probably took a hammering with this offer, pun intended!

        1. Ali

          Nice one.

        2. Nick

          Still waiting too

        3. JB

          Mine was missing, started a live chat and the guy said ‘he will claim now and I will have to wait 24 hours, sorry for the delay’ . I guess we wait and see.

  14. mrmingo

    Mine hasn’t gone in yet. However, I’ve also got a claim in for an Acca that missed by 1 leg too on Monday, this is on a seperate account, this hasnt been paid out yet either. Taking the view they’ve just been a bit overrun for the New Year, fully expecting both my anticipated bonus’ to be paid up in next 24 hours. Sit tight guys!

  15. Ali

    And it’s in

  16. Ali

    Matt – in rolling over the £25 refund do we use the ‘qualifying bet’ option or ‘free bet’ option on the calculator. I’ve placed £25 on tonight’s Man City/West Ham (BTTS No) but used the qualifying bet option on the calculator and concerned I should have gone with free bet. Can you help?

    1. Matt

      It looks like your query has been resolved on another post Ali. So your stake was returned in the end? This contradicts their amendment to the terms, suggesting that free bet stakes are no longer returned with any winnings…

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