It’s Betfair free bet time again! If your selected refund trigger occurs in the game (90 minutes plus injury time) Betfair will refund our first bet, should it lose, from pre-match Correct Score, Anytime Correct Score, First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £12.39 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
Everton are clear favourites to beat QPR and so I’ve selected them as my refund trigger. You have the option to select either an Everton win, a draw or a QPR win. In terms of my qualifying bet, I’m going to stick to the correct score market. I find the liquidity at the betting exchange is far better than goalscorer markets and I just feel more comfortable here. We need to select a scoreline that isn’t an Everton win. This ensures that if Everton beat QPR, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 1-1 draw.
Place £25.00 on 1-1 draw @ 10.00 = Potential profit of £225.00
Lay £20.92 on 1-1 draw @ 12.00 = Potential liability of £230.12
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
|
1-1 draw |
+£225.00 – £230.12 = £5.12 loss |
|
Not 1-1 and Everton win |
-£25.00 + £19.87 + £20.00 (Assumes an 80% return from our £25.00 free bet) = £14.87 profit |
|
Not 1-1 and Everton don’t win |
-£25.00 + £19.87 = £5.13 loss |
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
So we will make £14.87 profit if Everton win. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £5.13 on any other result and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Everton at Betfair. We need to divide £5.13 by 0.95 in order to factor in the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £5.40.
Lay £5.40 on Everton @ 1.46 = Potential liability of £2.48
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
|
1-1 draw |
-£5.12 + £5.13 = £0.01 profit |
|
Not 1-1 and Everton win |
£14.87 – £2.48 = £12.39 profit |
|
Not 1-1 and Everton don’t win |
-£5.13 + £5.13 = £0.00 |
So if Everton win, we will make a nice risk-free profit of £12.39! If the game isn’t won by Everton, we will break even and there’s no harm done. If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £25.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.