It’s the FA Cup Quarter-Finals and Week 28 of the Premier League and you don’t want to miss this Betfair Sportsbook offer. Place a pre-match single bet on the First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer market in any FA Cup or Premier League match this weekend, and if our winning selection scores again, Betfair will double our odds on that market. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £50.00+ and here’s how…
Qualifying Bets:
This weekend’s eligible matches are as follows…
| Fixture | Kick-Off | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough v Man City | 12:15 | Saturday 11th March 2017 |
| Bournemouth v West Ham | 15:00 | Saturday 11th March 2017 |
| Everton v West Brom | 15:00 | Saturday 11th March 2017 |
| Hull City v Swansea City | 15:00 | Saturday 11th March 2017 |
| Arsenal v Lincoln City | 17:30 | Saturday 11th March 2017 |
| Tottenham v Millwall | 14:00 | Sunday 12th March 2017 |
| Liverpool v Burnley | 16:00 | Sunday 12th March 2017 |
| Chelsea v Man Utd | 19:45 | Monday 13th March 2017 |
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
In order to be eligible for this offer, our £10.00 (max.) qualifying bet must be placed pre-match on either the First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer market. If our selection wins and then scores again, Betfair will double our odds. Winnings will be paid in cash at the normal price and then topped up to double odds with free bets. So, for example, if we place £10.00 on a winning Goalscorer at odds of 6.00 (5/1), we would receive £60.00 in cash and £50.00 in free bets, if he scores again.
It’s best that we place our qualifying bets on the First Goalscorer market as this gives us the best effective odds.
The terms state this offer is limited to one per person. This just means that we can only use one account for this offer, so we’re okay to bet on multiple matches (live chat).
It’s entirely up to you which matches you place your qualifying bets on. The lay odds are unlikely to be tight enough until the run up to kick-off, so I’ll use fictional odds for Middlesbrough v Man City in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the matches have been played.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.52…
Place £10.00 on Sergio Aguero @ 3.60 = Potential profit of £26.00
Lay £9.52 on Sergio Aguero @ 3.80 = Potential liability of £26.65
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Aguero scores first and then doesn’t score again | + £26.00 – £26.65 = £0.65 loss |
| Aguero scores first and then scores again anytime | + £26.00 – £26.65 + £20.80 (80% extracted from £26.00 free bet) = £20.15 profit |
| Aguero doesn’t score first | – £10.00 + £9.32 = £0.68 loss |
So, if Sergio Aguero scores first and then scores again anytime, we’ll make a nice profit of £20.15. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a small loss of £0.65. Risking £0.65 to make a profit of £20.15, gives us effective odds of 32.00, so given that the odds on Aguero scoring two or more goals are only 3.50, this is a very profitable offer in the long run, even though we need him to score the first goal.
This offer is available on all eight matches. It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bets on. I’ll update the following table with my actual selections once the matches have been played…
| Fixture | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough v Man City | Aguero | 3.60 | 4.50 | £2.14 | £18.66 |
| Bournemouth v West Ham | – | – | – | – | – |
| Everton v West Brom | Lukaku | 3.80 | 4.40 | £1.51 | £20.89 |
| Hull City v Swansea City | – | – | – | – | – |
| Arsenal v Lincoln City | Sanchez | 3.60 | 3.80 | £0.68 | £20.12 |
| Tottenham v Millwall | Kane | 3.20 | 3.70 | £1.49 | £8.52 * |
| Liverpool v Burnley | – | – | – | – | – |
| Chelsea v Man Utd | – | – | – | – | – |
* Betfair refunded losing stakes on Harry Kane after he was taken off injured before the first goal was scored.
Free bets will be credited within 12 hours of each match ending and will be valid for 48 hours. Free bet stakes are not returned with any winnings.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of any free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.