Guaranteed Profit
Actual Profit

Croatia v England Offer – Ladbrokes

Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 12/10/2018 19:45

It’s Croatia v England in the UEFA Nations League on Friday and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Ladbrokes! Simply place a bet on selected markets for Croatia v England and if our bet loses, Ladbrokes will give us our money back as a free bet, up to £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £5.11 and here’s how…

Banner showing the England v Croatia offer from Ladbrokes

Key Terms:

  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 08:00 on Thursday 11th October 2018 and 19:45 (kick-off) on Friday 12th October 2018.
  • The eligible markets are First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and #GetAPrice.
  • If our bet loses, Ladbrokes will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

Losing stakes are refunded as a free bet, so this is effectively a risk-free bet offer. We therefore need to select something with long odds.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for 2-1 England in the Correct Score market and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the match.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets looks likely to give us the biggest guaranteed profit.

We can work out our lay stake by using the ‘Risk-Free Bet’ setting on my matched betting calculator. We can enter £8.00 as our ‘Cashback’ figure as this is the amount we can expect to extract (80%) from our £10.00 free bet, should our bet lose…

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)


Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)


Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £7.26…

Ladbrokes logo

Place £10.00 on 2-1 England @ 9.50 = Potential profit of £85.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £7.26 on 2-1 England @ 12.00 = Potential liability of £79.86


Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

2-1 England+ £85.00 – £79.86 = £5.14 profit
Not 2-1 England- £10.00 + £7.11 + £8.00 (extract 80% from our £10.00 free bet) = £5.11 profit

So, regardless of the outcome, we’ll make a guaranteed profit of £5.11 on this Ladbrokes offer!

If our selection loses, our free bet will be credited within 24 hours of our qualifying bet being settled. Free bets will be valid for 24 hours and free bet stakes will not be returned with any winnings.

If you’re unsure how to extract around 80% cash from a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* ‘0-0 draw’ was available at back odds of 6.50 and lay odds of 8.60. The match was drawn 0-0, resulting in a profit of £4.54 on this Ladbrokes offer. *


  1. johnny

    Guest user

    why does this have to be calculated as a risk free bet instead of a qualifying bet?

    1. Matt


      Calculating it as a risk-free bet allows us to lock in a guaranteed profit. Feel free to do it as a normal qualifying bet if you wish, but unless you hit a winner, you’ll make a loss of £2.00.


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