It’s Derby v Leeds in the Championship Play-Offs on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Golden Goal offer from William Hill! Simply place a bet on Derby or Leeds to win the match and if our selected team scores first, but doesn’t go on to win, William Hill will pay us out as a winner, in cash, up to £50.00! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £84.20 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Promotion available on selected matches from 00:00:01 on 5th January 2019 until 23:59:59 on 1st June 2019.
- Qualifying Single bets must be placed on the 90 Minutes market for Derby v Leeds.
- Qualifying bets must be placed before 17:15 (kick-off) on Saturday 11th May 2019.
Golden Goal Winnings:
Golden Goal winnings will be paid as cash, up to a maximum of £50.00 (plus our stake, or the proportion of our stake that contributed to those winnings).
- If we stake £100 at odds of 1.50 (1/2), we’ll receive £150 in cash (£50 winnings, plus our £100 stake)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 2.00 (evens), we’ll receive £100 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £50 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 3.50 (5/2), we’ll receive £70 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £20 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Leeds in the 90 Minutes market.
If Leeds score first and go on to draw or lose the match, our winnings will be paid in cash, up to a maximum of £50.00.
To calculate our back stake, we just need to divide £50.00 by 1.375 (back odds minus 1.00), which gives us £36.36. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so we should stake £40.00 instead.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £38.62…
Place £40.00 on Leeds @ 2.375 = Potential profit of £55.00
Lay £38.62 on Leeds @ 2.48 = Potential liability of £57.15
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|
Leeds score first and win | +£55.00 | -£57.15 | £2.15 loss |
Leeds score first and don’t win | +£46.36 | +£37.84 | £84.20 profit |
Leeds don’t score first and win | +£55.00 | -£57.15 | £2.15 loss |
Leeds don’t score first and don’t win | -£40.00 | +£37.84 | £2.16 loss |
So, if Leeds score first and go on to draw or lose the game, we’ll receive cash winnings of £50.00, plus the £36.36 of our stake that contributed to those winnings, giving us a profit of £46.36 at William Hill. We’ll also win £37.84 from our lay bet at Smarkets, giving us an overall potential profit of £84.20!
Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £2.16. Risking £2.16 to make a profit of £84.20, gives us effective odds of 39.98, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our cash winnings will be credited within 3 hours of the match finishing or by no later than 12:00 on Sunday 12th May 2019.
Note: If your team scores first, you can either let it run as above or place an extra back bet on them to lock in a profit. If you decide to guarantee a profit, you just need to divide the sum of your potential loss and potential profit by the back odds. For example, if the back odds are 1.80 (4/5), you would divide £86.35 (£2.15 + £84.20) by 1.80, giving you a back stake of £47.97 and a guaranteed profit of £36.23.
* Leeds scored first and went on to win the match 1-0, resulting in a loss of £2.15 on this William Hill offer. *
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Ric
Guest user‘If Liverpool score first and go on to draw’ …. should be changed for Leeds I think 🙂
Matt
1490Thanks Ric, post amended.
Nick
Guest userHi all, I’d appreciate if somebody could confirm I’ve got this right:
Will Hill £30 @ 3.3 Derby win
Betfair EX £38.22 @ 2.64 Lay Derby Next Goal
Guaranteed profit of £6.30
Happy to receive constructive comments, cheers.
Vicky
Guest userLooks right to me unless Derby score first but don’t win, the golden goal profit would be a lot less than the liability for Derby scoring first I think?
Neil
Guest userI guess 0-0 would be the risk? Could then loose both
Ats
Guest userNo, if it’s 0-0 the lay bet would win at the exchange because Derby would NOT score the next goal.
It’s a guaranteed profit.
Mikejv1986
1Yes that seems correct Nick. However you lose the chance for your team to score first and not win (or at least have the chance to cash out.
Personally the thought of getting £80+ for a £2 loss seems a better thing to do but profit is profit! If you are happy with £6 profit then yeah that seems a good thing to do.
Could you do half lay of “next goal” and half lay of the example? Then you can cover any qualifying loss and still get a chance to win bigger?
Mikejv1986
1Sorry I’m wrong. That way you could still win “big” if you win your lay first and the team goes on to win, so the opposite of what the example wants…..interesting tactic and guaranteed profit.
Nick
Guest userHi Neil, I think this is covered with the lay as Derby won’t be the next team to score and that will win?
Neil
Guest useryes i think your right, ignore my previous comment!
Guy
Guest userNick
Odds of 3.3, less 1=2.3
So £50/2.3 = £21.74 bet.
Lay 2.64 =£27.38 on next goal.
Profit £5.10
Although would to £20 bet.. gives £4.69.
Then if Derby wins but not score first goal, £70.69.
Nick
Guest userThanks for all your feedback. I’ve gone for the £6 banker this time but I’m very interested in Guy’s suggestion above for the next Golden Goal opportunity. Good luck all who are going for the big payout today.
Lena
Guest userHi, how do you calculate how much to lay on next goal?
Caz
Guest userI’ve just done £20 derby on wh at 3.25 then layed against first goal derby on exchange at 2.56
£4.60 guareented profit –
So if Leeds score first and win my exchange bet will win and if Leeds score first but don’t win I will win at exchange and w hill and if derby score first I will win g goal? Correct??
Marc
Guest userLooks good to me! Guaranteed profit and a chance of a bigger win if Leeds score first but Derby wins. I’ve had enough of qualifying losses on this offer 😂
Aaron
Guest userIf you are going to wait on the other team coming back, you may as well close out when they go 1 up, and then put the profit on to a draw-no-bet, probably get 3/1 at 1 nil down. It would get you another £50 at least.
Vicky
Guest userWhat does draw no bet actually mean?
Matt
1490With ‘Draw No Bet’, you get your stake back if it finishes a draw.
Aaron
Guest userThe draw no bet market went to 20/1… that’s a pay day there. You could close out now (Leeds 1 nil) for £20 profit. If derby win that’s £380, if they draw you get £20.
Tom
Guest userWhere do you place the back bet if your team scores first to lock in the profit as per the example at the bottom of the page? With Will Hill or the Exchange? Cheers
Vicky
Guest userAny other bookmaker with best odds as doing with WH would be suspicious as you’ve already bet with them
Matt
1490There’s also the option of placing it at an exchange, but you would need to account for the commission.