Ladbrokes Chelsea vs Manchester United Money-Back Special

A great offer this one from Ladbrokes.  They are offering money back as a free bet up to £25.00 on all markets if both teams score in Sunday’s game between Chelsea and Manchester United.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £11.21!  And here’s how…

We need to select a correct score and hope it doesn’t come in, as only losing bets are refunded in the event of both teams scoring.  Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 0-0 draw (this is handy because if both teams score, our bet has already lost and we are guaranteed a profit).

 

Step 1:

Place £25.00 on 0-0 @ Ladbrokes @ 12.00 = Potential profit of £275.00.

Lay £22.30 on 0-0 @ Betfair @ 13.50 = Potential liability of £278.75.

Step 2:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the various outcomes…

 

0-0 draw £275.00 – £278.75 = £3.75 loss
Not 0-0 draw with both teams scoring -£25.00 + £21.19 + £18.75 (Assumes a 75% return from our £25.00 free bet) = £14.94 profit
Not 0-0 draw without both teams scoring -£25.00 + £21.19 = £3.81 loss

 

So as things stand we will win £14.94 if both teams score!  Unfortunately, we currently stand to lose just under £4.00 if both teams do not score and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying both teams to score at Betfair.

 

Step 3:

As £3.81 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our draw lay stake by taking commission into consideration.  £3.81 / 0.95 = £4.01.

Lay £4.01 on both teams to score @ Betfair @ 1.93 = Potential liability of £3.73.

Let’s have a look at our overall potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

 

0-0 draw -£3.75 + £3.81 = £0.06 profit
Not 0-0 draw with both teams scoring £14.94 – £3.73 = £11.21 profit
Not 0-0 draw without both teams scoring -£3.81 + £3.81 = £0.00

 

So, if both teams do not score we break even, but if both teams do score we make £11.21 profit for very little effort!

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.