A great offer this one from Ladbrokes. They are offering money back as a free bet up to £25.00 on all markets if both teams score in Sunday’s game between Chelsea and Manchester United. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £11.21! And here’s how…
We need to select a correct score and hope it doesn’t come in, as only losing bets are refunded in the event of both teams scoring. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 0-0 draw (this is handy because if both teams score, our bet has already lost and we are guaranteed a profit).
Place £25.00 on 0-0 @ Ladbrokes @ 12.00 = Potential profit of £275.00.
Lay £22.30 on 0-0 @ Betfair @ 13.50 = Potential liability of £278.75.
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the various outcomes…
|0-0 draw||£275.00 – £278.75 = £3.75 loss|
|Not 0-0 draw with both teams scoring||-£25.00 + £21.19 + £18.75 (Assumes a 75% return from our £25.00 free bet) = £14.94 profit|
|Not 0-0 draw without both teams scoring||-£25.00 + £21.19 = £3.81 loss|
So as things stand we will win £14.94 if both teams score! Unfortunately, we currently stand to lose just under £4.00 if both teams do not score and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying both teams to score at Betfair.
As £3.81 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our draw lay stake by taking commission into consideration. £3.81 / 0.95 = £4.01.
Lay £4.01 on both teams to score @ Betfair @ 1.93 = Potential liability of £3.73.
Let’s have a look at our overall potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
|0-0 draw||-£3.75 + £3.81 = £0.06 profit|
|Not 0-0 draw with both teams scoring||£14.94 – £3.73 = £11.21 profit|
|Not 0-0 draw without both teams scoring||-£3.81 + £3.81 = £0.00|
So, if both teams do not score we break even, but if both teams do score we make £11.21 profit for very little effort!