It’s Liverpool v Barcelona in the Champions League on Tuesday and you don’t want to miss this Golden Goal offer from William Hill! Simply place a bet on Liverpool or Barcelona to win the match and if our selected team scores first, but doesn’t go on to win, William Hill will pay us out as a winner, in cash, up to £50.00! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £98.03 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Promotion available on selected matches from 00:00:01 on 5th January 2019 until 23:59:59 on 1st June 2019.
- Qualifying Single bets must be placed on the 90 Minutes market for Liverpool v Barcelona.
- Qualifying bets must be placed before 20:00 (kick-off) on Tuesday 7th May 2019.
Golden Goal Winnings:
Golden Goal winnings will be paid as cash, up to a maximum of £50.00 (plus our stake, or the proportion of our stake that contributed to those winnings).
- If we stake £100 at odds of 1.50 (1/2), we’ll receive £150 in cash (£50 winnings, plus our £100 stake)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 2.00 (evens), we’ll receive £100 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £50 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 3.50 (5/2), we’ll receive £70 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £20 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Liverpool in the 90 Minutes market.
If Liverpool score first and go on to draw or lose the match, our winnings will be paid in cash, up to a maximum of £50.00.
To calculate our back stake, we just need to divide £50.00 by 1.00 (back odds minus 1.00), which gives us £50.00. That’s a perfect stake amount as it’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £49.02…
Place £50.00 on Liverpool @ 2.00 = Potential profit of £50.00
Lay £49.02 on Liverpool @ 2.06 = Potential liability of £51.96
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|
Liverpool score first and win | +£50.00 | -£51.96 | £1.96 loss |
Liverpool score first and don’t win | +£50.00 | +£48.03 | £98.03 profit |
Liverpool don’t score first and win | +£50.00 | -£51.96 | £1.96 loss |
Liverpool don’t score first and don’t win | -£50.00 | +£48.03 | £1.97 loss |
So, if Liverpool score first and go on to draw or lose the game, we’ll receive cash winnings of £50.00, plus the £50.00 of our stake that contributed to those winnings, giving us a profit of £50.00 at William Hill. We’ll also win £48.03 from our lay bet at Smarkets, giving us an overall potential profit of £98.03!
Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £1.97. Risking £1.97 to make a profit of £98.03, gives us effective odds of 50.76, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our cash winnings will be credited within 3 hours of the match finishing or by no later than 12:00 on Wednesday 8th May 2019.
Note: If your team scores first, you can either let it run as above or place an extra back bet on them to lock in a profit. If you decide to guarantee a profit, you just need to divide the sum of your potential loss and potential profit by the back odds. For example, if the back odds are 1.50 (1/2), you would divide £99.99 (£1.96 + £98.03) by 1.50, giving you a back stake of £66.66 and a guaranteed profit of £31.37.
* Liverpool scored the first goal and went on to win the match 4-0, resulting in a loss of £1.96 on this William Hill offer. *
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Nick
Guest userThe odds seem really good at the minute but the event isn’t til Tuesday. How much suspicion do you think it will bring if bets are placed now?
Matt
1490I would be inclined to wait until nearer the match Nick, even if it means the qualifying loss might be a little higher.
Vicky
Guest userCan’t decide whether to lay this or arb… I’m slightly confused with arb option if Barcelona score first and don’t win doesn’t guarantee a profit on my workings?? Anyone help
jimmyjames
0Either method works. If you dutch the bet, it means that if the promotion is triggered you have one, rather than 2 winning bets.
Scott
10I’m at work so can’t do the workings out for you at the moment, but it really is as simple as back a winner and lay them next goal on betfair. Use the qualifying bet calculator and it will tell you what you need, so long as your bookie bet doesn’t return more than £50 profit (as this is when you will need to underlay, but if you want simplicity then I’d stick sub £50.
Vicky
Guest userThanks Scott I’ve gone for backing and laying Liverpool rather than arb this time as hoping they will start strong with needing at least 3 goals but barca will come back. I was fine with how to do it just winning golden goal offer would’ve been £48 but the losing exchange was £49 so a loss when I thought arb should guarantee a profit regardless of outcome
Scott
10Maybe the odds where not very good on liverpool next goal compared to the win back odds when you was looking? I did it with Barcelona earlier and got £5.63 out of it (back @2.6 lay next goal @ 2.14) 🙂
Vicky
Guest userI’d put in 25 back bet @ 3.1 on barca so if they scored first and didn’t win golden goal would be 48.81 (50+23.81-25) lay next goal on betfair was 2.64 so 49.06 liability.
Dave
Guest userlucky me, forgot to lay the bet until after liverpool had scored
Vicky
Guest userWish I’d put extra back bet on now
Scott
10Replying to your other post as I cant reply to that anymore for some reason.
Yeah the problem was your back bet returned more than £50, I did say that if that was the case you need to underlay to balance out the returns 🙂