£77.96
Potential Profit
£-1.45
Actual Profit

Man Utd v PSG Offer – William Hill


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 12/02/2019 20:00

It’s Man Utd v PSG in the Champions League on Tuesday and you don’t want to miss this Golden Goal offer from William Hill! Simply place a bet on Man Utd or PSG to win the match and if our selected team scores first, but doesn’t go on to win, William Hill will pay us out as a winner, in cash, up to £50.00! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £77.96 and here’s how…

Banner showing the Man Utd v PSG offer from William Hill

Key Terms:

  • Promotion available on selected matches from 00:00:01 on 5th January 2019 until 23:59:59 on 1st June 2019.
  • Qualifying Single bets must be placed on the 90 Minutes market for Man Utd v PSG.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed before 20:00 (kick-off) on Tuesday 12th February 2019.

Golden Goal Winnings:

Golden Goal winnings will be paid as cash, up to a maximum of £50.00 (plus our stake, or the proportion of our stake that contributed to those winnings).

  • If we stake £100 at odds of 1.50 (1/2), we’ll receive £150 in cash (£50 winnings, plus our £100 stake)
  • If we stake £100 at odds of 2.00 (evens), we’ll receive £100 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £50 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
  • If we stake £100 at odds of 3.50 (5/2), we’ll receive £70 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £20 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on PSG in the 90 Minutes market.

If PSG score first and go on to draw or lose the match, our winnings will be paid in cash, up to a maximum of £50.00.

To calculate our back stake, we just need to divide £50.00 by 1.70 (back odds – 1.00), which gives us £29.41. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so we should stake £30.00 instead.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £29.14…

William Hill logo

Place £30.00 on PSG @ 2.70 = Potential profit of £51.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £29.14 on PSG @ 2.80 = Potential liability of £52.45

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeProfit/Loss
PSG score first and win+£51.00-£52.45£1.45 loss
PSG score first and don't win+£49.41+£28.55£77.96 profit
PSG don't score first and win+£51.00-£52.45£1.45 loss
PSG don't score first and don't win-£30.00+£28.55£1.45 loss

So, if PSG score first and go on to draw or lose the game, we’ll receive cash winnings of £50.00, plus the £29.41 of our stake that contributed to those winnings, giving us a profit of £49.41 at William Hill. We’ll also win £28.55 from our lay bet at Smarkets, giving us a nice overall profit of £77.96!

Any other outcome and we’ll lose £1.45. Risking £1.45 to make a profit of £77.96, gives us effective odds of 54.77, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, our cash winnings will be credited within 2 hours of the match finishing or by 12:00 on Wednesday 13th February 2019.

Note: If your team scores first, you can either let it run as above or place an extra back bet to lock in a profit. If you decide to guarantee a profit, you just need to divide the sum of your potential loss and potential profit by the back odds. For example, if the back odds are 1.80 (4/5), you would divide £79.41 (£1.45 + £77.96) by 1.80, giving you a back stake of £44.12 and a guaranteed profit of £33.84.

* PSG scored first and won the match, resulting in a loss of £1.45 on this William Hill offer. *

Comments


  1. Sid

    Guest user

    It is easy to set this offer up to make approximately £20 every time rather than an all or nothing approach. It involves laying your team to score first goal on betfair. If they don’t score first that is your profit. If they do score first you cash out your pre match lay on betfair. Managed to make £20 every time so far

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    1. Matt

      141

      There’s nothing wrong with taking a smaller guaranteed profit if that’s how you want to play it Sid. We’ve been unfortunate not to have one of these come in yet, but I stand by my view that the above method is the most profitable long-term.

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  2. Chris

    Guest user

    I normally do the above and back the team to win if they score first normally clear 30 quid but it’s dependant on getting team right

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  3. Steve 55

    0

    Am I missing something here? How can you cash out a lay bet if it loses? It seems to me you have been lucky…maybe I am wrong….just does not seem to be right. Hope i am wrong!!

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    1. Matt

      141

      Sid means cash out your original lay bet, not the extra lay bet on the first goal as that has already lost.

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  4. Sid

    Guest user

    Yep that is right Matt. You back team A at William Hill and Lay them on Betfair prematch. If Team A score first your bet with William Hill wins no matter what and you cash out your lay of team A at Betfair. In this case you also lose your lay of team A to score first goal. In the games so far, after the William Hill pay out minus the loses, it has worked out at a profit of more or less 20 pound each time. If team A does not score first your profit is your win of the lay bet on team A to score first with your pre match back and lay cancelling each other out in classic matched betting fashion.

    It will be nice for those adopting your strategy when it does come up with a nice big return but personally I am a lock in profits type of matched bettor.

    Is it just me or has the last few weeks been a particularly profitable period?

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    1. Sam

      Guest user

      Can I just check something are you backing team A to win on William Hill and laying team A first goal scorer in the match on Betfair?

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      1. Sid

        Guest user

        The strategy I have followed for all these offers, and have made between 19 and 25 pounds each time:

        Back team A to win at William Hill. Lay team A at Betfair. Both prematch.

        Also lay team A in Betfair next goal market prematch. (The exact amounts depend on the prices being offered).

        If team A score first wait until Betfair markets stabilize and cash out. The payout from William Hill minus my two lay loses have resulted in profits detailed above.

        If Team B score first you win the lay bet on team A to score first as your profit.

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        1. James

          Guest user

          Can you cash out lay bets on the betfair exchange?

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  5. Steve 55

    0

    Thanks for the clarification….now I am that little bit wiser….maybe!!!….have to look at this…thanks

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  6. Dave

    Guest user

    Hi Sid, what sort of stakes (roughly) are you laying with?

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  7. Dave

    Guest user

    Also, if your team do not score first surely the lay cash out on them is fairly low?

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  8. Sid

    Guest user

    Dave

    Roughly 50 pound lay stake to take full advantage of William Hill offer.

    If your team do not score first you do not cash out the lay. You only cash out the lay if your team score first as William Hill will pay out no matter what the result.

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    1. Ben

      Guest user

      Hi Sid

      I’ve got my head around the maths now (I think).

      My only question I have is what if you back lay man united and then lay them next goal on betfair.

      What happens if united score the first goal in say the 85th minute and the effect that would have on the potential profitability of the offer?

      Thanks

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  9. Aaron

    Guest user

    @ Sid,

    The odds to get out of the ‘1×2 market’ lay dont leave you with any profits to cover the lay on the ‘next goal market ‘. You are realizing losses by counting your stake, there is no profit. Let me explain:

    Take Utd on WH @ 2.5 for £30. (which would give you £45 profit on a normal bet)
    Lay Utd on BF @ 2.62 (for qualifying loss of ~£2.28).

    Lay Utd ‘next goal’ on BF @ 2.6 (What is your lay stake for this market? Are you using half of your potential forecasted profit from the WH 1×2 market? And you want ~£20 profit? So you are laying at least £20 say, for a ~£32 liability)

    So if Utd score first, in the first half (<45 minutes), you lose your lay bet on the next goal market, and the lay odds on the 1×2 market will drop to around ~1.5. Hence, if you lock in at this point (i.e. close out the lay on the 1×2 market) you'll have £23.71 overall profit (because you lose £21.79 by closing out your 1×2 lay @ 1.5, i.e £45.00 – £21.79 = £23.71). But then you will also lose your £32 in liability for the 'next goal' lay as Utd have scored first.

    If Utd score after 75 minutes, you lose your lay bet on the next goal market, and the lay odds on the 1×2 market will come down to around ~1.1 (that's being generous for a low scoring match with a late goal). If you lock in at this point (i.e. close the lay on the 1×2 market) you'll have £4.67 in overall profit (because you lose £40.33 by closing out your 1×2 lay @ 1.1, i.e £45.00 – £40.33 = £4.67). But you will lose your £32 in liability for the 'next goal' lay.

    The first scenario assumes a -£8.29 loss, and the second scenario assumes a -£27.33 loss.

    _____________________________________________________________________________________________

    a) You should close out if Utd score first early, and the odds don't drop too far, for ~£24 profit. No next goal lay.

    b) You should let it ride if Utd score late, and hope for an equalizer. If no equalizer you lose £2.28 QL. No next goal lay.

    The rational is that considering we will only make ~£77 for a full turn around in the match (i.e. the other team comes back to win or equalize), and 77/24 = ~3/1: but the chances of a full turn around from 1 goal down are much larger than 3/1 (more like 8/1).

    Hence every one in eight matches a team will go one up and lose (historically) – but you are now in the position to theoretically offer 3/1 (for an 8/1 bet). Hence long term you win.

    Similarly if they score late and you are faced with taking a £5 profit, 77/5 = ~15/1. Let it ride as this is a much better bet.

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  10. Sid

    Guest user

    Thanks for ‘explaining’ Aaron. I must have imagined this strategy giving me a 19-24 pound profit every time. This is the strategy I have used if you want to tie in a decent profit from this offer every time.

    Back the favourite of the two teams, say team A, at Billies and lay team A as usual at Betfair for small loss say 1 pound.

    Lay team A to score first goal. If team A were the favourites you can usually do this for say approx 1.8/1.9, and certainly not the 2.6 claimed above, at some time before kick off. So 20 lay liability 16 (if you watch the markets this is perfectly achievable for the favourite of the two teams).

    As all offers have been on two closely matched teams if team A score first they are still decent odds in back market (Arsenal were 1.88 after they went one up against Chelsea so still a good cash out) so cash out your lay. Cash out this lay for roughly 14/15 loss after the market stabilizes.

    Subtract your team A loss of 14/15 pound and your first goal loss (roughly 16) from the 50 William Hill pay out anyway and you still have 20 quid.

    If team A did not score first you have your 20 profit from the lay first goal bet.

    God I miss the days you could make 2K from Cheltenham alone and 500 from a weekend of blackjack on a betfair bonus

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  11. Sid

    Guest user

    Aaron I tried to be polite but really? You telling me there is no profit in an offer with a 50 quid pay out if your team score first in a lay first goal market where you can lay the favourite of the two teams to score first for under 2.0?

    More confidence than knowledge?

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  12. Aaron

    Guest user

    Don’t know about that Sid – it’s more like a convoluted risk trading strategy rather than matched betting – it all basically amounts to having a punt on an early goal, then hoping the back odds land above 1.5ish. Arsenal weren’t favourites, they were 3.5 before kick off, hence the ‘next goal’ lay wasn’t 1.6, and they also scored within 15 minutes.

    If you had of backed Chelsea (the favourite), at 2.4, the cash-out odds would have cratered to sub 1.5. It seems you are conflating the favourites’ ‘next goal’ odds, with the non favourite 1×2 odds.

    I suppose you might be able to get out of your ‘next goal’ lay for a few quid as those odds aren’t likely to move around a lot, if it’s goalless after half time (hence it could provide some benefit as a hedge aginst the other team scoring before that). Because if the cash out odds drop below 1.4 (even if you get a good price on the next goal market), you start drifting into loss.

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  13. Steve 55

    0

    Hi there….this has all got a bit confusing for me….would it not just require a lay bet on next goal against your selected team at WH?….if not why??….please keep the explanation simple…I think my head is going to explode!!!!…..thanks for your patience with a dummy 👍

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  14. Mark

    Guest user

    Anyone else been gubbed on the bet365 offer? Went from 25 to 10 on the Man Utd PSG game

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    1. Jamie

      Guest user

      I’ve gone from £25 back to £50

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  15. Sharbster

    6

    Ur not gubbed Mark, you must simply not be betting enough with 365. Not sure the exact science but basically put a few bigger bets on and you will hopefully move back up to 25 quid for the next offer

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  16. Graham

    Guest user

    Couldn’t find the golden goal offer tonight on W Hill. Has it been taken down?

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    1. Matt

      141

      It’s still there Graham. You should find it on their Promotions page or via the banner at the top of the homepage.

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  17. Will

    Guest user

    Just a thought what happens if team A scored a late winner? Then your cash out will be very low and will make a loss

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  18. Sid

    Guest user

    Backed Man U 40 at 2.3 at Billies. Deliberately over layed at smarkets (hate a losing offer) 40.8 at 2.34. Layed man U first goal 20 at 1.91 on Betfair..

    If man u had scored first then I would have cashed out. If it got to 70 minutes at 0-0 would have reduced my liability on next goal market to 0 by backing man U (this would still have given profit as back odds increase during game).

    My profit from this offer was the lay man u first goal 20 quid minus commission. Between 19 and 24 for every one continues

    These really should never be non profit offers

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    1. Jamie

      Guest user

      What if Man U scored first very late in the game?

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    2. Richard

      Guest user

      Trying to understand this. United were at odds of just 2.3 at the start, so if they scored first their odds would become even shorter. If you cashed out (i.e placed another back bet on United) then you’d make a net loss. Can you please explain

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  19. Mark

    Guest user

    6th Golden Goal on the trot that Matt has used the correct example for team that scored first, I left mine to run tonight so made around £2 loss.

    Normally I will back the team that scores first in play but PSG were like 1.38 odds at that point so I decided to risk it but backfired this time, that’s 6 times they’ve done this offer now without ever paying out for the Golden Goal.

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    1. Matt

      141

      Hopefully the offer will stick around a while yet Mark.

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  20. Alex

    Guest user

    It is a known fact that the team that scores first often goes on to win. Bookies are not stupid! Most of their offers are designed to be enticing but not pay out too much too often.

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    1. Matt

      141

      The thing with this offer Alex is that we don’t need it to happen all that often to make a very tidy profit.

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  21. P

    Guest user

    Matt have you received the free bet offer on the horses from Hills? Free bet up to £50!

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    1. Matt

      141

      No mate, very nice though!

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  22. Tony S

    2

    Had to laugh last night when the goal alert went off in my pocket whilst out for food… my little face lit up… sly look in the pocket… 0-2 lol!!!… ITS GONNA HAPPEN!!!

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