£16.17
Potential Profit
- -
Actual Profit

Premier League 2019/20 Offer – BetStars


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 09/08/2019 20:00

Premier League football is back on Friday and you don’t want to miss this BetStars offer. Simply bet £25.00+ on the Premier League 2019/20 top goalscorer and BetStars will give us a £2.00 free bet for each goal our player scores until the New Year! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £16.17 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • Qualifying bets must be placed between Monday 29th July 2019 and Friday 23rd August 2019.
  • We must place £25.00+ on the English Premier League – Top Goalscorer market.
  • We’ll receive a £2.00 free bet for each Premier League goal our player scores until Wednesday 1st January 2019.

NOTE: This post has been put together from a matched betting perspective. It’s important to bear in mind though that this means tying up some of our exchange funds until the end of the season. The alternative is to place a qualifying bet without laying. Our selected player should score enough goals to cover some of the £25.00 stake and we could win big if he goes on to be top goalscorer.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which player you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £22.37…

BetStars logo

Place £25.00 on Aubameyang @ 7.50 = Potential profit of £162.50

Smarkets logo

Lay £22.37 on Aubameyang @ 8.40 = Potential liability of £165.53

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeProfit/Loss
Aubameyang top scores+£162.50-£165.53£3.03 loss
Aubameyang doesn't top score-£25.00+£21.92£3.08 loss

So, regardless of who finishes top goalscorer, we’ll lose a maximum of £3.08 in qualifying for our potential free bets.

NOTE: It’s worth pointing out that if we select the same player for the various different bookmaker Top Goalscorer offers, we would need a large amount in our exchange account to cover the overall liability. By selecting a few different players, we can reduce our overall liability at the exchange. That’s because only one player can be top goalscorer (winnings are reduced if players finish tied), so we just need enough exchange funds to cover the player with the largest liability.

Free Bets:

For every Premier League goal that Aubameyang scores between 9th August 2019 and 1st January 2020, we’ll receive a £2.00 free bet within 48 hours. Free bets will be valid for 7 days.

Aubameyang plays for Arsenal and they have 21 fixtures scheduled between 9th August 2019 and 1st January 2020. If Aubameyang can score 12 goals, we’ll receive £24.00 in free bets.

By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 80% cash from our £24.00 in free bets, so £19.20. If we take into account our minimum qualifying loss of £3.03, this gives us a potential profit of £16.17 on this BetStars offer!

Comments


  1. Billy B

    Guest user

    Matt,

    Have a look at PokerStars, they appear to be doing similar but with £20 and £2 for each goal for the whole season.

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      207

      Just posted Billy.

      +0
      Reply

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