Manchester City get their Champions League 2016/17 campaign underway on Wednesday and Stan James are back with another 2/1+ Free Bet Special. Place a single bet on any market at 3.00 (2/1) or greater on Manchester City v Borussia Monchengladbach and if it’s a winner, Stan James will match our stake as a free bet, up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.65 and here’s how…
Qualifying bet:
Qualifying bets must be placed between 09:00 on Monday 12th September 2016 and 19:45 (kick-off) on Wednesday 14th September 2016, to be eligible.
We need to find a selection with tight back and lay odds as close to the 3.00 (2/1) as possible to give ourselves the best chance of bagging a free bet. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on the match being a draw.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using the following matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.13…
Place £25.00 on a draw @ 5.00 = Potential profit of £100.00
Lay £24.13 on a draw @ 5.20 = Potential liability of £101.35
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the two outcomes…
| Draw | + £100.00 – £101.35 + £20.00 (80% of £25.00 free bet) = £18.65 profit |
| Not a draw | – £25.00 + £23.65 = £1.35 loss |
So, if the game is drawn, we’ll make a profit of £18.65, otherwise we’ll make a loss of £1.35. Risking £1.35 to make a profit of £18.65, gives us effective odds of 14.81, so given the fact that the draw odds are currently 5.00, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If our qualifying bet wins, our £25.00 free bet will be credited within 24 hours of the promotional period ending and will be valid for 7 days. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
NOTE: For those of you that would prefer to lock in a guaranteed profit on this offer, you could simply add 0.80 (80% extracted from your £25.00 free bet) to your back odds of 5.00, to give you your effective odds of 5.80. This will enable you to make a guaranteed profit of £2.43. It’s more profitable in the long run, to do this offer as set out above. We are effectively risking our £2.43 guaranteed profit to make a profit of £18.65, which gives us effective odds of 8.67, which are higher than the actual draw odds of 5.00.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.