Euro 2016 is just 3 days away and TonyBet are getting in on the action! Simply place a bet on any team to win Euro 2016 and if they get knocked out on penalties, TonyBet will give us our money back as a bonus, up to maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £8.44 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between Monday 23rd May 2016 and 20:00 on Friday 10th June 2016 to be eligible.
It’s entirely up to you who you place your qualifying bet on, but having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Spain.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
You can find the Euro 2016 outright market by entering ‘Euro 2016’ in the search box at the top of the homepage or by using the following link trail…
Smarkets > Football > Outright > Euro 2016
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.12…
Place £10.00 on Spain @ 6.00 = Potential profit of £50.00
Lay £9.12 on Spain @ 6.60 = Potential liability of £51.06
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Spain win | + £50.00 – £51.06 = £1.06 loss |
| Spain knocked out on penalties | – £10.00 + £8.94 + £9.50 (extract 95% from stake refund) = £8.44 profit |
| Spain knocked out by other means | – £10.00 + £8.94 = £1.06 loss |
So, if Spain get knocked out of Euro 2016 on penalties, we will make a nice profit of £8.44. If Spain win the tournament or get knocked out by any method other than penalties, we’ll have made a loss of £1.06. Risking £1.06 to make a profit of £8.44, gives us effective odds of 8.96, so given that the odds of Spain getting knocked out on penalties are 4.50, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.85 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £10.00 stake refund.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.