The Premier League fixtures come thick and fast over the festive period and Unibet are getting in on the action. Place a £20.00+ in play bet at odds of 3.00 (2/1) or greater on selected Premier League games, Unibet will match our stake as a free in play bet, up to £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £60.00 and here’s how…
Qualifying bets:
This week’s eligible matches are as follows…
Fixture | Kick-Off | Date |
---|---|---|
Hull City v Man City | 17:15 | Monday 26th December 2016 |
Liverpool v Stoke City | 17:15 | Tuesday 27th December 2016 |
Arsenal v Crystal Palace | 16:00 | Sunday 1st January 2017 |
Bournemouth v Arsenal | 19:45 | Tuesday 3rd January 2017 |
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed in play at odds of 3.00 (2/1) or greater, to be eligible.
It’s impossible to know what odds will be available until the games get underway. We’ll need to find selections with tight back and lay odds as close to the 3.00 (2/1) as possible to give ourselves the best chance of bagging a free in play bet.
I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the table with my actual selections after each match.
It’s entirely up to you when you place your in play bets, but it may be worth waiting until half-time when the odds are fairly stable. It reduces the risk of the odds fluctuating unfavourably whilst we are trying to get our lay bets on.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.69…
Place £20.00 on a draw @ 5.10 = Potential profit of £82.00
Lay £19.69 on a draw @ 5.20 = Potential liability of £82.70
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the two outcomes…
Draw | + £82.00 – £82.70 + £16.00 (80% of £20.00 free bet) = £15.30 profit |
Not a draw | – £20.00 + £19.30 (£19.69 minus 2% commission) = £0.70 loss |
So, if the game is drawn, we’ll make a profit of £15.30, otherwise we’ll make a loss of £0.70. Risking £0.70 to make a profit of £15.30, gives us effective odds of 22.86, so given the fact that the odds are 5.10 on the game being drawn, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
This offer is available on all four specified matches. It’s entirely up to you which selections you go for. I’ll update the following table with my selections throughout the week…
Fixture | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hull City v Man City | – | – | – | – | – |
Liverpool v Stoke City | – | – | – | – | – |
Arsenal v Crystal Palace | – | – | – | – | – |
Bournemouth v Arsenal | Draw | 5.00 | 5.20 | £1.08 | £14.92 |
So, we’ll probably lose around £1.00 on each bet that doesn’t come in, but with around £15.00 profit up for grabs on each game, this offer is well worth a shot!
If any of our qualifying bets win, our £20.00 free in play bet will be credited within 48 hours. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of a £20.00 free in play bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Again, we should place our free in play bets at half-time, to reduce the risk of the odds fluctuating unfavourably whilst we are trying to get our lay bets on.
NOTE: For those of you that would prefer to lock in a guaranteed profit on this offer, you could simply add 0.80 (80% extracted from your £10.00 free in play bet) to your back odds of 5.10, to give you your effective odds of 5.90. This will enable you to make a guaranteed profit of £2.32. It’s more profitable in the long run to do this offer as set out above. We are effectively risking our £2.32 guaranteed profit to make a profit of £15.30, which gives us effective odds of 6.59, which are higher than the actual odds (5.10) of the match being drawn.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.