£216.61
Potential Profit
£130.33
Actual Profit

US PGA Championship 2019 Offer – Betway


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 16/05/2019 11:45

The US PGA Championship 2019 tees off on Thursday and you don’t want to miss this Betway offer! Simply place an Outright Winner bet and if our selection is leading at the end of Round 1, 2 or 3, Betway will pay our bet out as a winner. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £216.61 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • The minimum and maximum stakes are £5.00 and £20.00 respectively.
  • We must place our bet on the 2019 PGA Championship – Winner market (pre-tournament bets only).
  • If our selection is leading at the end of Round 1, 2 or 3, Betway will pay our bet out as a winner.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which player you go for. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Brooks Koepka.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £16.95…

Betway logo

Place £20.00 on Brooks Koepka @ 11.00 = Potential profit of £200.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £16.95 on Brooks Koepka @ 13.00 = Potential liability of £203.40

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeProfit/Loss
Brooks Koepka wins having led after a previous round+£200.00-£203.40£3.40 loss
Brooks Koepka wins having not led after a previous round+£200.00-£203.40£3.40 loss
Brooks Koepka doesn't win having led after a previous round+£200.00+£16.61£216.61 profit
Brooks Koepka doesn't win having not led after a previous round-£20.00+£16.61£3.39 loss

So, if Brooks Koepka leads after Round 1, 2 or 3 but fails to win the tournament, we’ll have made a profit of £216.61!

Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £3.40. Risking £3.40 to make a profit of £216.61, gives us effective odds of 64.71, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, pay outs will be credited in the form of cash within 24 hours of the tournament ending.

Note: If our selection is leading after Round 1, 2 or 3, we’ll have the option to place an extra back bet on our selection to win the tournament outright, to lock in a profit. If you decide to guarantee a profit, you just need to divide the sum of your potential loss and potential profit by the back odds. For example, if Brooks Koepka has back odds of 3.00 (2/1), you would divide £220.01 (£3.40 + £216.61) by 3.00, giving you a back stake of £73.34 and a guaranteed profit of £143.27.

* Brooks Koepka was the clear tournament leader at the end of Round 1. By placing an extra back bet of £86.28 at odds of 2.55 (31/20), we were able to lock in a profit of £130.33 on this Betway offer.

This is entirely optional, but I suspect many would rather lock in the substantial profit than risk making a loss if Koepka goes on to win the tournament. *

Comments


  1. AndyC

    4

    Hi,

    Looking at the T and C’s they mention Dead Heat rules which seems to alter the amount you will win if they are tied for the lead and don’t go on to win. I don’t think this causes an issue other than just less profit. Is that correct?

    8. Dead Heat rules apply for joint/co round leaders. In the case of a joint leader then going on to lead outright, or vice-versa, we will pay out the larger amount.

    Example
    Tiger Woods, Rory Mcilroy & Dustin Johnson are in a 3-way tie for the lead after round 1,
    Rory Mcilroy & Dustin Johnson are in a 2-way tie for the lead after round 2,
    Rory Mcilroy is the clear leader after round 3.
    Bubba Watson goes on to win.

    Bets on Tiger Woods would be eligible for a third of their payout,
    Bets on Dustin Johnson would be eligible for half of their payout,
    Bets on Rory McIlroy would be eligible for the full payout.

    +1
    Reply
    1. Matt

      168

      Yes that’s correct Andy, it would just mean less profit.

      If your player is co-leader and you wanted to lock in a profit as described in the note at the bottom of the post, you would need to account for the reduced profit in your workings.

      +1
      Reply
  2. Si

    Guest user

    My Betway was gubbed but not sure the gibbing includes this offer ?

    ‘This means that you will no longer be eligible for Bonuses, Free Bets, ex gratia payments, Best Odds Guaranteed or reward points.’

    +0
    Reply
    1. Nick

      Guest user

      I am also gubbed so would appreciate if anyone can confirm for definite? I may have a chat with them online tonight if I get chance.

      +0
      Reply
    2. Nick

      Guest user

      They said I am eligible for NO offers and my stake is restricted so I would not be eligible for this.

      +0
      Reply
  3. Fordy

    40

    I doubt gubbed accounts will be allowed to place bets over £5z.

    +0
    Reply
  4. coops131

    1

    To guarantee a profit you say we could make another back bet, is this with the exchange or with Betway?

    +1
    Reply
    1. Matt

      168

      In order to maximise our profit, we can just place it with whichever bookmaker is offering the best odds.

      It’s probably best to avoid placing it at Betway and if you place it at an exchange, just bear in mind that commission will be deducted from any winnings.

      +1
      Reply
  5. sireade

    0

    Hi. Excuse me for the newbie question. If my back bet is leading after the 1st, 2nd or 3rd could I just trade out of the lay bet on Smarkets if there’s enough liquidity? Would that give me a win on the back bet but cancel out the loss on the lay if my selection goes on to win?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      168

      Yes that’s also an option. Compared with placing an extra back bet, you would lock in a similar profit that way.

      +1
      Reply
  6. jack

    Guest user

    Im thinking to cash out if my choice is winning at the end of a round. How long does a round last so that I know when to cash out?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Si

      Guest user

      Why would you cash out. You get paid the full amount if they are leading at the end of a round.

      +0
      Reply
    2. Matt

      168

      You don’t want to be cashing out at Betway. As per the terms, you would be forfeiting the big cash payout…

      9. Any bets that result in a void or push result, as well as those cashed out partially or in full will not be eligible.

      If you want to lock in a profit, you can place an extra back bet on your selected player as explained in the note at the bottom of the post.

      +0
      Reply
      1. jack

        Guest user

        can i still do this now that the event has started? how do i do this exactly – my total was £220 for Dustin Johnson

        +0
        Reply
        1. Matt

          168

          You can lock in a profit if your selected player is leading after Round 1, 2 or 3.

          Round 1 is currently in progress.

          +0
  7. Scott

    10

    Looks like Koepka is about to make us all very happy haha

    +0
    Reply
    1. Scott

      10

      Bit hasty, just seen theres still half the field to tee off hahaha. Probs jinxed it now too! Sorry boys

      +0
      Reply
  8. Nick

    Guest user

    Unless Tyler Hall goes on a massive tear being -1 on the 9th, it is looking extremely likely that Koepka is going to lead after day 1.

    I presume a simple early pay out calculator would work out what you need to back to cash out? Right now at odds of 2.8, a back stake of £78.56 would give £138.36 profit? My only nervousness is betway pulling a quick one and not paying out after the tournament!

    +0
    Reply
  9. mark

    Guest user

    Do we wait for betway to pay out before we place another back/ cash out on the exchange?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Nick

      Guest user

      “If eligible, pay outs will be credited in the form of cash within 24 hours of the tournament ending.”

      +0
      Reply
      1. mark

        Guest user

        Ok thanks Nick. Think i will cash out the exchange- looks pretty safe that hes leading 1st round..

        +0
        Reply
  10. David C

    Guest user

    Can I just check that Brooks Koepka is leading at end of round one but Betway will not pay out until after the tournament has finished so I am still ok to cash out my lay on the exchange please?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      168

      Koepka is leading after Round 1 David, so whatever happens now, Betway should pay your bet out as a winner, as per the terms of the offer.

      +1
      Reply
  11. Tom B

    Guest user

    Hi Matt,

    Is it feasible to place your extra back bet using a different company such as smarkets to get better value. Smarkets = 2.78 and betway = 2.5?

    Thanks

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      168

      Yes you can place it at an exchange Tom.

      You just need to account for the 2% commission when calculating your back stake…

      2.78 (back odds) – 1.00 (stake) = 1.78
      1.78 * 0.98 (to account for 2% commission) = 1.7444
      1.7444 + 1.00 (stake) = 2.7444

      So, instead of dividing by the back odds of 2.78 (see note at the bottom of the post), you would divide by 2.7444.

      +0
      Reply
    2. Scott

      10

      If you’re going to use an exchange it might be worth using the one you layed with to begin with. The reason for that is you dont have to pay the commission (as far as I am aware anyway) as that’s only payed on profit. So you are effectively just reducing your exposure and hence no commision 🙂

      +0
      Reply
      1. Matt

        168

        Yes a valid point Scott. It’ll reduce the amount of commission, should your selected player go on to win the tournament.

        +0
        Reply
  12. Simon S

    Guest user

    Can you tell me where do I have to place back bet? Should I place it on Smarkets where I matched it? Btw the odds are changed on 2.72 so can you tell me how did you calculated? Thanks

    +0
    Reply
  13. Simon S

    Guest user

    Sorry I didn’t see last comment I get it now

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      168

      No problem Simon, great stuff.

      +0
      Reply
  14. Ste

    Guest user

    As anyone been paid winnings now. I haven’t.

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      168

      12. Crediting will be made in the form of cash within 24 hours of the tournament finishing.

      +0
      Reply
  15. Ste

    Guest user

    Wouldn’t it just be easier to trade out. How would you know how much profit was made?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      168

      Yes you can trade out Ste. You should be able to work out your profit once you know the value of your trade out.

      +0
      Reply
  16. Maggie

    Guest user

    Hi,

    I’m relatively new to this and think I may have made a mistake. I was trying to lock in profit using the method above but the odds had changed so I use the formula to calculate the odds.

    What I came up with was £220.21/1.31(Smarkets odds) = £167.94, so I placed £168 bet at smarkets for Koepka to win, however my bet was only been partially matched so I cancelled it leaving £31 matched in place. I then stupidly tried to replace the £168 bet, which again is only partially matched (£10.39). I now have £199 bet on Smarkets with only £41.39 matched.

    How do I correct this?

    Thanks in adavance.

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      168

      You can cancel the unmatched part Maggie and place the bet again once you’ve worked out what your remaining stake should be.

      Always make sure there is sufficient liquidity available at the exchange before placing any bets.

      +0
      Reply
  17. Ste

    Guest user

    If I was to trade out. It says buy for 169 is that how much I’d lose not leaving much profit from the potential winnings of 220

    +0
    Reply
  18. Ste

    Guest user

    Odds are now 1.25 with sky bet.
    Is this right 220 divide by 1.25 which would leave 176 for extra back bet. How much profit would be made. Seems I’ve missed out on bigger profit

    +0
    Reply
  19. Ste

    Guest user

    Can anyone help with this. Or I could just cash out at bookies for 131 pound . If I do this do I trade out at smarkets or leave it running

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      168

      If you place £176.00 on Koepka at odds of 1.25, your overall profit will be £40.60 Ste.

      Koepka had a great 2nd Round yesterday, meaning his odds have shortened even further. He has actually broken the record for the lowest 36-hole score in Major Championship history.

      The shorter his odds get, the less profit you’ll be able to lock in.

      +1
      Reply
  20. Mark

    Guest user

    The tournament has ended and I have bets on 2 sites and neither have paid out as yet which seems odd

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      168

      The tournament hasn’t ended yet Mark. It’s the 4th and final round today.

      +0
      Reply
  21. Gary

    Guest user

    The tournament hasn’t ended yet. There is one more round to play today. Ends tonight.

    +0
    Reply

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