£100.00+
Potential Profit
£9.93
Actual Profit

Goodwood Festival 2020 Offer – Bet365


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 28/07/2020 13:45

Goodwood Festival 2020 gets underway on Tuesday and you don’t want to miss this Bet365 4/1 offer! Simply back a winner at odds of 4/1 or more in any live ITV race and Bet365 will give us a risk-free bet equal to our stake, up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £100.00+ and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • Offer applies to first win or each way single bet placed on each race shown live on ITV Racing.
  • If our horse wins at odds of 5.00 (4/1) or greater, we’ll qualify for a risk-free bet to the same stake, up to £50.00, on the next ITV race.
  • Risk-free bets must be placed using our own funds and if it loses, Bet365 will refund our stake in cash.

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re not familiar with ‘Back a Winner’ type offers, you can check out my Bet365 4/1 offer page, for a walk-through of how it should be done.

This offer is available on the following 29 races…

13:45, 14:15, 14:45, 15:15 and 15:45 at Goodwood each day between Tuesday 28th July 2020 and Friday 31st July 2020.

13:50, 14:25, 15:00, 15:35 and 16:10 at Goodwood, plus the 14:05, 14:40, 15:15 and 15:50 at Newmarket on Saturday 1st August 2020.

The back and lay odds should tighten up as the start of each race draws near. Having looked at the odds available, we could place a qualifying bet on Tinandali in the 13:45 at Goodwood on Tuesday.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Betfair gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

Betfair are currently offering new customers 0% commission up to £500 for the first 30 days.

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

If you’re an existing Betfair customer, you can opt in to pay just 2% commission by selecting their Basic reward plan.

For more information about My Betfair Rewards and how to opt in, please see my Betfair 2% Commission page.

Option 1:

We know that if our horse wins, we’ll be able to extract 75% cash from the £50.00 risk-free bet. We can therefore add 0.75 to the back odds to get our effective odds…

6.00 + 0.75 = 6.75

We simply enter 6.75 as our back odds instead of 6.00 and lay the amount shown on the calculator. Overlaying like this is fine, but the guaranteed profits are likely to be small.

Option 2:

Our second option is to lay our bets as normal and hope a couple of our horses win for bigger profits.

We can calculate our stake using my matched betting calculator…

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £48.54…

Bet365 logo

Place £50.00 on Tinandali @ 6.00 = Potential profit of £250.00

Betfair logo

Lay £48.54 on Tinandali @ 6.20 = Potential liability of £252.40

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Outcome Bookie Exchange Extracted Profit/Loss
Tinandali wins +£250.00 -£252.40 +£37.50 £35.10 profit
Tinandali doesn't win -£50.00 +£47.56 £2.44 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £35.10 if Tinandali wins, otherwise we’ll lose £2.44. Risking £2.44 to make a profit of £35.10 gives us effective odds of 15.39. So, given that Tinandali is odds of just 6.00 (5/1) to win the race, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

ITV are covering 29 races across Goodwood Festival 2020 week, giving us an overall potential profit of £100.00+ on this Bet365 offer!

If any of our selections win, our risk-free bet will be valid on the very next ITV race. We must place our risk-free bets using our own funds and if our selection loses, Bet365 will refund our stake in cash, up to a maximum of £50.00. If our risk-free bet wins, we’ll qualify for another risk-free bet on the next ITV race.

If you’re unsure how to extract £37.50 cash (75%) from a £50.00 risk-free bet, check out my Risk-Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

I’ll update the following table with some actual selections at the end of each day…

Race Day Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Profit/Loss
13:45 Goodwood Tuesday Tinandali 6.00 6.20 -£2.44
14:45 Goodwood Tuesday Safe Voyage 6.50 6.80 -£3.02
15:15 Goodwood Wednesday Kameko 6.50 6.80 -£3.02
15:45 Goodwood Wednesday Country Carnival 5.50 5.60 -£1.71
14:45 Goodwood Thursday Al Aasy 5.50 5.80 -£3.38
15:15 Goodwood Thursday Deirdre 6.50 6.80 -£3.02
13:45 Goodwood Friday Under The Stars 9.00 9.00 -£0.90
14:45 Goodwood Friday Prompting 5.00 5.10 -£1.76
15:15 Goodwood Friday Liberty Beach 6.50 7.00 +£38.61 *
15:45 Goodwood Friday Alounak 6.00 5.70 +£1.76
13:50 Goodwood Saturday Tommy G 6.00 6.20 -£2.44
15:15 Newmarket Saturday Expressionism 6.50 6.80 -£3.02
15:35 Goodwood Saturday Meraas 6.50 6.80 -£3.02
15:50 Newmarket Saturday Vivid Diamond 5.00 5.20 -£2.71

* Prompting won the 14:45 at Goodwood on Friday, resulting in a profit of £38.61 on the 15:15 at Goodwood on Friday.

Comments


  1. bob

    Guest user

    What happens if my selected horse wins on the 3:45 today, does it carry over to newmarket? Thanks.

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      328

      It would be apply to the next eligible race Bob, which is the 13:50 at Goodwood on Saturday.

      +0
      Reply

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