£9.32
Potential Profit
£9.32
Actual Profit

Money Back Offer (13:50 Goodwood) – Sky Bet


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 30/08/2020 13:50

There’s a big day of racing at Goodwood on Sunday and it’s time for another Sky Bet money back offer! If our horse finishes 2nd in the 13:50 at Goodwood, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £9.32 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • This offer applies to our first bet on the 13:50 at Goodwood.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 13:00 on Friday 28th August 2020 and 13:50 (race-off) on Sunday 30th August 2020.
  • If fewer than four runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £10.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd place finish.

Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Ice Sprite.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Betfair gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

Betfair are currently offering new customers 0% commission up to £500 for the first 30 days.

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

If you’re an existing Betfair customer, you can opt in to pay just 2% commission by selecting their Basic reward plan.

For more information about My Betfair Rewards and how to opt in, please see my Betfair 2% Commission page.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.52…

Sky Bet logo

Place £10.00 on Ice Sprite @ 2.00 = Potential profit of £10.00

Betfair logo

Lay £9.52 on Ice Sprite @ 2.12 = Potential liability of £10.66

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Outcome Bookie Exchange Cashback Profit/Loss
Ice Sprite wins +£10.00 -£10.66 £0.66 loss
Ice Sprite finishes 2nd -£10.00 +£9.32 +£10.00 £9.32 profit
Ice Sprite finishes outside top 2 -£10.00 +£9.32 £0.68 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £9.32 if Ice Sprite finishes 2nd and we stand to lose a maximum of £0.68 on any other outcome. Risking £0.68 to make a profit of £9.32 gives us effective odds of 14.71, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.

* Ice Sprite finished 2nd, resulting in a profit of £9.32 on this Sky Bet offer. *

Comments


  1. Harry

    Guest user

    Hi Matt. I’ve always thought in these races wouldn’t you be better trying to lock in a profit by laying the place and the win? If laying the place is say 1.33 you could go £10.20 (returned stake + commission) / 1.33 = £7.67. Now you have a win of +£7.67 and loss of -£2.33. Then couldn’t you lay the win? £10.20 / 2.08 = £4.90. Wouldn’t this lock in a profit of £2.57?

    I’m wondering more if my maths are right. Does this look correct to you?

    +0
    Reply
  2. Matt

    324

    Yes it’s possible to lock in a profit doing it that way Harry. I think your maths are giving a profit of somewhere between £2.18 and £2.57. That’s based on 0% commission at the exchange.

    My preference is to keep things simple with a small qualifying loss and larger potential profit, but there’s nothing wrong with locking in a smaller profit if you prefer.

    +0
    Reply
  3. Harry

    Guest user

    Thanks Matt I thought so. Its just looking at the Betfair odds the win probability is greater than finishing 2nd. It would probably pay to just lay the place thinking about it (counterintuitive as that is!). I’m pretty sure you can add the commission into the calculation. Cheers. Craig

    +0
    Reply
  4. dan slo

    Guest user

    Hi all.

    Do we still get our stake refunded with rule 4 being applied?

    Today I put a 10 on Ice Sprite but I cannot see if the stake has been returned.

    Regards

    Daniel

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      324

      Yes Dan, the minimum runner requirement was 4 horses, so refunds were credited for Ice Sprite.

      +1
      Reply
  5. Harry

    Guest user

    Needless to say it came …. 2nd. Ended up about a fiver instead of about £7 as the Paddy Power horse was stone last so all’s good. Cheers

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      324

      Nicely done Harry.

      +1
      Reply
  6. Dan

    Guest user

    Thx Matt
    I shud have read the outcome that you have added at the end of the offer.

    Thx anyway.

    You are a star ⭐

    +1
    Reply

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