£18.38
Potential Profit
£17.82
Actual Profit

Sky Bet Offer – 1.45 York


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 10/10/2015 13:45

Why bother looking for horse racing tips today, when you can do a bit of matched betting and make low-risk profits?  Sky Bet are back with another First Race Special on Saturday’s horse racing. If the favourite wins the 1.45 at York race course, Sky Bet will refund all losing outright bets on that race as a free bet up to £25.00.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.38 and here’s how…

 

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.

It’s entirely up to which horse you place your qualifying bet on as long as it’s not the favourite at the start of the race.  It therefore makes sense that we go for a horse with long odds. This ensures that if the favourite wins, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t great so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the race.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.

skybet

Place £25.00 on Spring Offensive @ 10.00 = Potential profit of £225.00

smarkets white

Lay £23.85 on Spring Offensive @ 10.50 = Potential liability of £226.62

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Spring Offensive wins+£225.00 – £226.62 = £1.62 loss
The favourite wins-£25.00 + £23.38 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.38 profit
Neither wins-£25.00 + £23.38 = £1.62 loss

So we will make a nice profit of £18.38 if the favourite wins and we stand to lose £1.62 on any other outcome. A £1.62 risk to make £18.38 profit gives us effective odds of 12.35, so the fact that the current favourite is priced at 4.50 to win, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Arabian Illusion at back odds of 6.50 and lay odds of 7.20. The favourite, Arthenus, won the race meaning I made a profit of £17.82 on this offer. * 

Comments


  1. Lori

    Guest user

    Unlike yesterday, this race is really open with the favourites odds quite long at 5’s.Think i’ll give it a miss.

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    Reply
  2. James

    Guest user

    Offers are a bit thin on the ground today lads. We need another weekend like last week!!

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  3. Paul

    Guest user

    My advice today is get on the hills and ladbrokes money back for second place offers, back and lay the 2 favourites one on each site and hope for as many refunds as possible

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  4. James

    Guest user

    That’s what I was thinking Paul. I’m gunna do the bet365 4-1 offers as well. They’ve got 8 races today. Potential for some big money to be made!!

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  5. Paul

    Guest user

    Allegedly there is a way of making £4-£5 a race guaranteed on the 365 offers

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    1. Russ

      Guest user

      yes I think there is money to be made but not £4-£5 per race. As you get a risk free bet up to £50 if a 4/1 or greater wins (which we should then be able to translate to say £40) then effectively we are getting better odds and this creates an arbitrage opportunity. So as an example if a horse is 5.0 and 5.4 on the exchanges I would treat the bookmaker odds as really being 5.8 because if it wins we would make £200 plus £40 on the risk free bet so £240 in total which is effective odds of 5.8. So all you do is then treat it as a qualifying bet of 5.8 in the bookmaker and 5.4 in the exchange. In this example you’d make £2.83 if it wins or loses.

      Bet 365 do best odds guaranteed so there is some additional profit that this will occasionally create too.

      I think you have to be selective on which races you go for though. It wont work on all the races as the differences in odds between the bookie and exchange may be too great. I think it will work best where the odds are between 5.0 and 7.0.

      Has anyone any other ideas/thoughts on how to work this offer?

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  6. Keith

    Guest user

    WinCash Live have enhanced Rugby offer Wales win by + 7 points at 2.5. currently exchange has Wales +7.5 points as 2.00 so £50 stake make you over £10!

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    1. Ryan

      Guest user

      If its 20-27 to australia then would we lose both?

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      Reply
  7. Keith

    Guest user

    Totesports are doing the same offer as yesterday on the Newmarket extra markets. Bet 3 get 1 free tomorrow. betting on the place markets is pretty easy to get good matched odds

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  8. Richard

    Guest user

    One offer for today is money back if your driver fails to finish the race. You can lose around a pound by backing and laying rosberg. I would say 1 in 8 races the merc won’t finish and you get the 25 pound free bet.

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    1. Matt

      294

      Nice tip Richard!

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      Reply
    2. Chris

      Guest user

      Great call this one, didnt go for it myself but well done.

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      Reply
      1. Matt

        294

        It was a longer shot than usual but still a value bet long-term.

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        Reply

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