£18.65
Potential Profit
£-3.19
Actual Profit

Sky Bet Offer – 1.50 Newbury


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 24/10/2015 13:50

We head to Newbury this weekend for our Sky Bet First Race Special. If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 1.50 at Newbury racecourse on Saturday, Sky Bet will refund all losing outright bets on that race as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.65 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd placed finish. At the time of writing, the lay odds are pretty poor so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the race.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.

skybet

Place £25.00 on Crazy Horse @ 5.00 = Potential profit of £100.00

smarkets white

Lay £24.13 on Crazy Horse @ 5.20 = Potential liability of £101.35

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Crazy Horse wins+£100.00 – £101.35 = £1.35 loss
Crazy Horse places 2nd or 3rd-£25.00 + £23.65 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.65 profit
Crazy Horse places outside top 3-£25.00 + £23.65 = £1.35 loss

So we will make a nice profit of £18.65 if Crazy Horse places 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose £1.35 on any other outcome. Risking £1.35 to make £18.65 profit gives us effective odds of 14.81, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Zonderland at back odds of 2.875 and lay odds of 3.25. Zonderland finished 5th, meaning I made loss of £3.19 on this offer. *

Comments


  1. Psymon Sezz

    Guest user

    I was lucky with this one and managed to get back and lay odds of 5.0 on betfair with a £1 lose either way.

    This is also a good bet to fulfil the requirements for the weekly £5.

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    Reply
    1. Matt

      294

      Nice odds mate. The £5.00 free bet is always a nice bonus!

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      Reply
  2. tony

    Guest user

    Do the back / lay odds get closer nearer the off? There look like being 2 eligible horses to come 2nd or 3rd but both are 5.0 / 5.8

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    Reply
    1. Matt

      294

      They should do Tony. The favourite isn’t a bad shout either.

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      Reply
      1. tony

        Guest user

        You mean the favourite is a good prospect to come 2nd or 3rd? My brain always tells me the favourite will win (ha!) so I always want to overlook it on these offers.

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        Reply
  3. Paul

    Guest user

    On the favourite on sky bet, Ladbrokes and hills want it to come second and get £75 worth of free bets looks like the losses will be minimal as well on it

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    Reply
  4. Brian

    Guest user

    its 1.40 pm on raceday and betfair has crashed so smarkets have no lay odds. what would we do without them ? ladbrokes ecxchange is limited. betdaq maybe?

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    Reply
    1. Lori

      Guest user

      Back up and running now but lay odds are no where near 5 on Crazy Horse. Unless he finishes 2nd or 3rd, looking at a loss of at least £8 here 🙁

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      Reply
  5. Andy

    Guest user

    Betfair Exchange is down and smarkets’s liquidity is very poor…
    This looks like a no-go unfortunately.

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    Reply
  6. Lori

    Guest user

    I couldnt get a lay bet on but Crazy Horse won, £125 WOOOHOOOOO.

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    Reply
  7. James

    Guest user

    Back start time that finished 2nd and the Betfair exchange crashes so now I don’t know if my lay bet got matched. So I’m either £20 up or £5 down!!

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    Reply
    1. tony

      Guest user

      Same here, and my lay bet was not matched, so Betfair’s technical issues cost me. Now had Start Time just hung on to the lead then I would have fluked a £100 profit instead 🙁

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      Reply
  8. J

    Guest user

    Trust Crazy Horse to win lol o well haven’t lost much and it was worth the punt

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    Reply
    1. ryan

      Guest user

      Backed crazy horse and couldn’t lay on bet fair so £100 up!! Flukey I know

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      Reply
  9. Greig

    Guest user

    Betfair went downfor me too! Stupidly didn’t think of laying with another site! Mine came 2nd so at least i got the free bet so shouldn’t lose too much!

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    Reply
  10. Daniel

    Guest user

    It is interesting to know that this bet was a qualifier for the weekly Sky Bet Club.
    Would it be possible to explain how to exploit the offers like “refund if your horse comes 2nd to favourite”?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      294

      We can do those offers much the same as this one Daniel but there’s less chance of us hitting the refund with them only refunding 2nd place. It’s therefore important that we get really tight back and lay odds and minimise our qualifying losses.

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      Reply
      1. Daniel

        Guest user

        Thanks for the reply Matt.
        So when I see the offer “Money Back if Horse Finishes 2nd to SP Favourite” I will only get a refund if the horse I back finishes 2nd?
        Not sure why they say also “SP”. Does it make any difference?

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        Reply
        1. Matt

          294

          That means the starting price favourite so your horse would have to come 2nd to whoever the favourite was at the start of the race. Those offers probably aren’t worth doing. Stick to ‘Money-back if horse finishes 2nd.

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