Sky Bet Offer – 12.25 Lingfield (Saturday)

December 30, 2016 / Horse Racing / 4 Comments

Kick-off time (GMT): 31/12/2016 : 12:25

Potential profit
£18.62
My profit £-1.96

There’s a big day of racing at Lingfield on Saturday and it’s time for another Sky Bet First Race Special! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 12.25 at Lingfield, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.62 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd place finish.

At the time of writing the odds are poor, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the race.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…


Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Adjust your lay stake

Min £
Max £

Lay stake required: £

Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.10…

skybet

Place £25.00 on German Whip @ 3.50 = Potential profit of £62.50

smarkets white

Lay £24.10 on German Whip @ 3.65 = Potential liability of £63.88

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

German Whip wins + £62.50 – £63.88 = £1.38 loss
German Whip places 2nd or 3rd - £25.00 + £23.62 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.62 profit
German Whip finishes outside top 3 - £25.00 + £23.62 = £1.38 loss

So, we will make a nice profit of £18.62 if German Whip places 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose £1.38 on any other outcome. Risking £1.38 to make a profit of £18.62 gives us effective odds of 14.49, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Ebbisham at back odds of 6.00 and lay odds of 6.40. Ebbisham finished outside the top 3, meaning I made a loss of £1.96 on this Sky Bet offer. *

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4 Comments

  1. SJ

    December 31, 2016
    / Reply

    Whilst the smarkets place market is 3 places can we lock in by placing a lay bet on the place market?

    Or if it wins would we lose both lay bets and not get the £25? (I've had too many days off with 3 kids and my brain is turning to mithered mush!)

    • Matt

      Matt

      January 1, 2017
      / Reply

      I prefer to do these offers as above but feel free to play around with the stakes. If you lay your selection to place in the top 3, you would also need to place a small bet on your selection to win.

  2. S

    December 31, 2016
    / Reply

    It says on the terms and conditions under condition 11 that bets on the unnamed favourite and second favourite will not count. So we cannot pick German whip and the other horse, or am I missing something?

    • Matt

      Matt

      December 31, 2016
      / Reply

      We don't need to worry about that. There is an option to bet on the 'Unnamed Favourite' and 'Unnamed 2nd Favourite'. You'll find them at the bottom of the list of runners. That's where you place a bet and your selection is whichever horse starts the race as favourite or 2nd favourite.


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