Saturday sees a big day of racing at Ascot and here’s another Sky Bet First Race Special! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 12.45 at Ascot race course on Saturday, Sky Bet will refund all losing outright bets on that race as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.49 and here’s how…
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd placed finish. At the time of writing, the lay odds are pretty poor so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the race.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
Place £25.00 on Forgotten Rules @ 6.50 = Potential profit of £137.50
Lay £23.97 on Forgotten Rules @ 6.80 = Potential liability of £139.01
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Forgotten Rules wins||+£137.50 – £139.01 = £1.51 loss|
|Forgotten Rules places 2nd or 3rd||-£25.00 + £23.49 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.49 profit|
|Forgotten Rules places outside top 3||-£25.00 + £23.49 = £1.51 loss|
So we will make a nice profit of £18.49 if Forgotten Rules places 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose £1.51 on any other outcome. A £1.51 risk to make £18.49 profit gives us effective odds of 13.25. At the time of writing, Forgotten Rules is odds of 6.50 to win and odds of 2.92 to place in the top 3. This means that the odds of Forgotten Rules placing 2nd or 3rd are currently 5.30, making this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Click here to take advantage of this Sky Bet offer
* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Clever Cookie at back odds of 8.50 and lay odds of 9.00. Clever Cookie finished 2nd, meaning I made a profit of £18.19 on this offer. *