£18.49
Potential Profit
£18.19
Actual Profit

Sky Bet Offer – 12:45 Ascot


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 17/10/2015 12:45

Saturday sees a big day of racing at Ascot and here’s another Sky Bet First Race Special! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 12.45 at Ascot race course on Saturday, Sky Bet will refund all losing outright bets on that race as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.49 and here’s how…

 

 

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd placed finish. At the time of writing, the lay odds are pretty poor so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the race.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.

skybet

Place £25.00 on Forgotten Rules @ 6.50 = Potential profit of £137.50

smarkets white

Lay £23.97 on Forgotten Rules @ 6.80 = Potential liability of £139.01

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Forgotten Rules wins+£137.50 – £139.01 = £1.51 loss
Forgotten Rules places 2nd or 3rd-£25.00 + £23.49 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.49 profit
Forgotten Rules places outside top 3-£25.00 + £23.49 = £1.51 loss

So we will make a nice profit of £18.49 if Forgotten Rules places 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose £1.51 on any other outcome. A £1.51 risk to make £18.49 profit gives us effective odds of 13.25. At the time of writing, Forgotten Rules is odds of 6.50 to win and odds of 2.92 to place in the top 3. This means that the odds of Forgotten Rules placing 2nd or 3rd are currently 5.30, making this a profitable offer in the long run.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Clever Cookie at back odds of 8.50 and lay odds of 9.00. Clever Cookie finished 2nd, meaning I made a profit of £18.19 on this offer. *

Comments


  1. James

    Guest user

    Coral are offering 2/1 on jack jobs from 8.30 onwards tomorrow and it’s trading at 2.4 at the exchange at the min. Not sure what the maximum bet is. Be nice if it was 100 though!!

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  2. Ryan

    Guest user

    £10 max James!!
    Sportingbet have a free bet refund if Liverpool or Sunderland win.
    Betway have offers on the RWC games.
    Are you blogging any of those Matt? Stan James also doing BTTS free bet as well

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    1. Matt

      294

      All on my ‘to do’ list matey. Should get them on in the morning.

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      Reply
  3. keith

    Guest user

    Betsafe have partnered up with Man city and are offering bet £25 pre match get £10 risk free in play throughout 2015 on Man city premier games. Matt can you blog this one?

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    Reply
  4. Keith

    Guest user

    BetVictor also have place 10 on the 12.45 at Ascot get a free 10 bet for the following race. You can do this now as the 10 quid bonus is automatically credited straight away!

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    Reply
  5. tony

    Guest user

    The odds are not getting any closer, so just done this at 7.0/7.6, risking £2.98 to qualify for the free bet – still seems worth the punt on the named horse – just hope it doesn’t win!! haha

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    Reply
  6. Martin robsob

    Guest user

    How come you publish forgotten rules to win then after the event said clever cookie hahaha.. You blagging your figures here

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    1. Matt

      294

      Hi Martin, when I blog these Sky Bet offers, the odds are usually pretty poor so I always use a horse and fictional odds (as stated in the post) as an example with the intention of recording my actual selections after the race. You’ll notice on other Sky Bet blog posts that I’ve blogged a winner but recorded a loss as I ended up selecting a different horse.

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      1. Martin rob

        Guest user

        Was just kidding… Keep up the quality blog

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        Reply
        1. Matt

          294

          Haha will do Martin!

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