£24.00+
Guaranteed Profit
£25.13
Actual Profit

St Leger Festival 2018 Offer – Betway


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 12/09/2018 13:50

The 4-day St Leger Festival 2018 gets underway on Wednesday and you don’t want to miss this Betway offer! Simply place a bet on the first race at Doncaster each day and if our selection loses, Betway will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed overall profit of £24.00+ and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • The minimum stake for this offer is £2.00.
  • We must place single Race Winner bets.
  • If our first bet loses, Betway will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00.

This offer is available on the first race each day at the St Leger Festival 2018 as follows…

TimeDate
13:50Wednesday 12th September 2018
13:50Thursday 13th September 2018
13:50Friday 14th September 2018
13:50Saturday 15th September 2018

Qualifying Bets:

Losing stakes are refunded as a free bet, so this is effectively a risk-free bet offer. We’ll need to select horses with long odds in order to maximise our profits. The back and lay odds should tighten up on the day of each race.

Having looked at the odds available for the 13:50 on Wednesday, we could place our qualifying bet on Converter.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the biggest guaranteed profit.

We can work out our lay stake by using the ‘Risk-Free Bet’ setting on my matched betting calculator. We can enter £8.00 as our ‘Cashback’ figure as this is the amount we can expect to extract (80%) from our £10.00 free bet refund, should our horse lose…

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £7.97…

Betway logo

Place £10.00 on Converter @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £60.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £7.97 on Converter @ 7.80 = Potential liability of £54.19

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Converter wins+ £60.00 – £54.19 = £5.81 profit
Converter doesn't win- £10.00 + £7.81 + £8.00 (extract 80% from our £10.00 free bet) = £5.81 profit

So, regardless of the outcome and with some good odds, we should make a guaranteed profit of around £6.00 on each race. With four eligible races to look forward to, this gives us a guaranteed overall profit of £24.00+ on this Betway offer!

If eligible, free bets will be credited within 24 hours of our qualifying bets being settled and will be valid for 24 hours. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.

I’ll update the following table with some suggested bets throughout the week…

RaceSelectionBack OddsLay OddsProfit
13:50 WednesdayConverter7.007.80£5.81
13:50 ThursdayCookupastorm12.0012.50£6.79
13:50 FridayDancing Star5.505.80£5.98
13:50 SaturdayGolden Apollo13.0014.00£6.55

Comments


  1. Aaron

    I don’t understand why you don’t put £10 as the cashback variable? Isn’t that the value of the free bet?

    1. Matt

      Yes but the free bet isn’t cash Aaron. We need to place and lay the free bet to extract around 80% (£8.00) cash from it.

  2. Aaron

    Backed Saaheq on Betway with my free bet and laid Sheepscar on Smarkets by mistake, happy days!

    1. Matt

      You’ve had a result there Aaron! Just be careful, next time you might not be so lucky…

  3. Kim

    I get confused with the risk free offers when logging. I won £6.04 as my horse lost using the risk free calculator. Do I still make a profit on the free bet too? I can’t get my head around these ones!!

  4. Aaron

    Kim,

    (Option 1)
    If you had of laid your horse with the “qualifying bet” option, you would have laid £9, with a liability of £61.18, and hope your horse loses.

    If bookmaker bet wins : -1.18 — No free bet > -£1.81 profit
    If exchange lay bet wins : -1.18 — + Free bet > (£10 * 0.8 = 8, then 8 – 1.18 = £6.88 profit)

    (Option 2)
    If you choose the “risk free” option, you underlay with the amount of £7.97, with an exchange liability of £54.20, and in this case it does not matter if your horse wins.

    If bookmaker bet wins : £5.80 — No free bet, but we have £5.80 profit since we underlay.
    If exchange lay bet wins : -£2.19 — + Free bet > (£10 * 0.8 = 8, then 8 – 2.19 = £5.81 profit)

    Hence option 2 is a hedge against the scenario that the horse you back actually wins (i.e. no free bet). You are paying around £1 for the luxury.

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