£18.90
Potential Profit
£-1.10
Actual Profit

Yorkshire Ebor Festival 2019 Offer (Day 4) – Sky Bet


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 24/08/2019 13:50

It’s Day 4 of the Yorkshire Ebor Festival 2019 on Saturday and it’s time for another Sky Bet Money Back Special! If our horse finishes 2nd in the 13:50 at York, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.90 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • This offer applies to our first bet on the 13:50 at York.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 17:00 on Friday 23rd August 2019 and 13:50 (race-off) on Saturday 24th August 2019.
  • If fewer than five runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £20.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd place finish.

Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Wissahickon.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Betfair gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.90…

Sky Bet logo

Place £20.00 on Wissahickon @ 2.875 = Potential profit of £37.50

Betfair logo

Lay £19.90 on Wissahickon @ 2.94 = Potential liability of £38.60

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeCashbackProfit/Loss
Wissahickon wins+£37.50-£38.60£1.10 loss
Wissahickon finishes 2nd-£20.00+£18.90+£20.00£18.90 profit
Wissahickon finishes outside top 2-£20.00+£18.90£1.10 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.90 if Wissahickon finishes 2nd and we stand to lose £1.10 on any other outcome. Risking £1.10 to make a profit of £18.90 gives us effective odds of 18.18, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.

* Wissahickon finished outside the top 2, resulting in a loss of £1.10 on this Sky Bet offer. *

Comments


  1. Fordy

    41

    As there is only 6 runners, laying the place only maybe another option…

    +0
    Reply
  2. Fordy

    41

    So went with it.. Back £20 @2.875, Lay £20 @ 1.83 (0% Comission).

    £20.90p Profit if Wissahickon Wins.
    £3.40p Profit if Second.
    £0 Profit any other outcome.

    +0
    Reply
    1. darren

      Guest user

      I’m confused. sorry if its stupid question but aren’t you losing £16.6 on second place..

      If second lay losses… lay costs £20 +£16.6…. an you only get £20 back.

      regards
      darren

      +2
      Reply
      1. Fordy

        41

        You are absolutely right. Trying to be too clever, thanks for the heads up Darren!

        +0
        Reply
        1. Shaun

          Guest user

          Can you not lay the to place market (1st / 2nd) on Smarkets?

          +0
  3. Dave

    Guest user

    What about Space Traveller at 10, lay at 4.8 Fordy?

    +1
    Reply
    1. Fordy

      41

      I would say that’s a very good arb!!

      +0
      Reply
  4. Alex

    Guest user

    What have you now realised, Fordy? I did it the way you did and can’t see the problem Darren has pointed out. I didn’t lay the win, just the place.

    +0
    Reply
    1. Fordy

      41

      I’m confused myself now Alex… but if the horse comes second, you get your stake back (so win nothing) but you lose £16.60 on the laying of that place. I thinks that is now right.

      So I’ve rectified it by backing the place and laying the win now.

      Apologies for the confusion, maybe someone could it explain it better than me!

      +0
      Reply
  5. Alex

    Guest user

    Thanks for that, Fordy, and Darren too.

    +0
    Reply
  6. Fordy

    41

    You may now find if you back the place to give an equal loss on that market. You should be able to make a profit to cover this on the win market due to the odds crash on Wissahickon..

    +0
    Reply

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