Ladbrokes Offer – Murray v Bublik

Andy Murray begins the defence of his Wimbledon crown this afternoon and Ladbrokes are getting in on the action! Simply place a Set 1 Correct Score bet on Andy Murray v Alexander Bublik and if it loses, Ladbrokes will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £5.00+ and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 08:00 and 13:00 (start time) on Monday 3rd July 2017, to be eligible.

Losing stakes are refunded as a free bet, so this is effectively a risk-free offer. We therefore need to select a Set 1 Correct Score with long odds. At the time of writing, the lay odds are unavailable, so I’ll use fictional odds for 6-2 to Andy Murray in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the match.

We’ll need to place our lay bets on the Betfair Exchange as Smarkets do not currently offer set betting markets.

We can work out our lay stake by using the ‘Risk-Free Bet’ setting on my matched betting calculator. We can enter £8.00 as our ‘Cashback’ figure as this is the amount we can expect to extract (80%) from our £10.00 free bet refund, should our bet lose…

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £7.43…

Ladbrokes logo

Place £10.00 on 6-2 Murray @ 5.00 = Potential profit of £40.00

Betfair logo

Lay £7.43 on 6-2 Murray @ 5.70 = Potential liability of £34.92

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Murray wins 6-2 + £40.00 – £34.92 = £5.08 profit
Murray doesn’t win 6-2 – £10.00 + £7.05 + £8.00 (extract 80% from our £10.00 free bet) = £5.05 profit

So, regardless of the outcome of the 1st set and provided we can get some good odds, we should make a profit of £5.00+ on this Ladbrokes offer!

If our selection loses, our free bet will be credited within 24 hours and will be valid for 7 days.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

NOTE: If the lay odds for the ‘Set 1- Correct Score’ market fail to improve, we can just let our back bet run as a value bet without laying. If our back bet wins, we’ll have made a nice profit, otherwise we can just extract £8.00 cash from our £10.00 free bet refund and take a £2.00 loss.

* The lay odds failed to improve, so I decided to treat this one as a speculative bet. I backed Andy Murray to win the first set 6-2 at odds of 5.00. Andy Murray won the first set 6-1, meaning I made a loss of £2.00 on this Ladbrokes offer. *

Got a question?
Leave me a comment below

I usually respond within 24 hours.

Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.