Double winnings on correct sore bets

• Following on from the blog post https://matchedbettingblog.com/football/betfair-offer-champions-europa-league-semi-finals/#.VyEFW_krLIU I thought I might get a bit more feedback in the forums.

  Perhaps my numbers are wrong on this but for the Atlético Madrid vs. Bayern München,
  Back Correct score 1-1 @ 6
  Lay Correct score 1-1 @ 7
  Lay Half time Draw @ 2.04

  Qualifying bet
  Back £10.00 @ 6 = £60.00
  lay £51.58 @ 7 = £8.42
  Qualifying loss = -£1.58

  1-1 and not drawing at half-time = £50 – £51.58 = -£1.58
  1-1 after drawing at half-time = £50 – £51.58 + £40 (80% of £50 free bets) = £38.42
  Not 1-1 = £8.24 -£10 = -£1.58

  This gives us effective odds of about 25.31

  BUT…

  The chance of it being a draw at HT is 2.04, multiplied by 7 (the odds of it being 1-1) which gives us 14.28

  So the odds are not our effective odds of 25.31 compared to the markets 7.00,
  But actually our effective odds of 25.31 compared to the bet winning of 14.28
  That does still give us an edge but maybe not as big as originally thought?

  +0

  

  trevman

  0

  April 27, 2016 at 7:34 pm