New Bet365 Offer….Any Good?

Seems identical to the 2 Up offer that Paddy has been doing for months tbh, which is not one that has much value imo

You also need a particular sequence of events, something like what happened last night in the Athletico v Real match, where your team goes 2 up and then concedes a goal early enough to have any change of ‘cashing out’ the lay bet for some value.

Way to leverage this, other than the above … is to do more than one game at a time to increase your chances of a “2-up” comeback. And rather than back and then lay the one team (on a non 365 account presumably) – back each team in the fixture to win with 365 (it’s allowed) …then if either side goes 2-up you have at least two bites of the cherry?

A couple of recent games that have paid out… Levante (last min pen for 2-2) and Juve’s comeback against Genoa – I wouldn’t be too picky when it comes to games as some of the unlikeliest fixtures can deliver unexpected comebacks. Take West Ham’s 2-0 comeback with 10 men on the opening day of the season… Ah but they lost 3-2 at the death I hear you say, so the early payout makes no difference..? well… when you are sitting on a cash out at 2-2 with 17 mins to go and one side are down to 10 men and you’ve already been paid out so your stake money is covered… what do you do? you take the money and run eh?

So what I would do (and have done) is pick 5 games in a day… and run with whatever target returns you want… For instance back each result to win say £100 then back the 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, and even 4-4 for the same returns (best to be safe than sorry) 0-0’s I usually cover on best priced Betstars but I always tend to lower my expected return on the bore draw to maintain as near as break even point as possible so there’s not more than a couple of quid risk at most. (£104 covers most games with good levels of interest, Also, back 1-1 on 365 if they’ve got the best price and then net this off what you want back as your 0-0 returns as it’ll come back as bore draw refund in the event..?

So an ideal scenario is a 2-0 up that ends up 2-3 or even 3-3 of course…

You could always leavethe bet to run and not stalk your cash out button(s), but if the above result happened like below?

2-0 at half time or whenever (paid out) goes 2-2 in say the 75th min. cash out is possibly £65 or £70 of your hundred … could be a lot less depending on who is more favoured to score the next goal… but need to be disciplined to cash out asap in my opinion… then if it does swing 2-3 in the 90th minute then you are already maybe £65 up and you’ve just landed another potential £100 with the away win? …You may also be sitting on a couple of quid for the 3-3 at this point, so if there’s 3 or 4 mins of added time… you’ve yet another chance to cash out on the 2-3 if it’s close to full returns (£90?), and then all you want is a last gasp equaliser from the home side for 3-3 eh?

So potentially £100 for the (2 up) plus £65 c/o @(2-2) £90 c/o @(2-3) and then your £100 comes in for the 3-3 draw in the 94th min.

if it’s 1-1 at the death then I’m likely to cash out with 3 mins of added time to go and take a hit, but that’s your choice… sometimes you get lucky, and sometimes you don’t!

Had a couple of bites on this since… Bayern Game was the only game that qualified on Friday night and obviously you wouldn’t expect Bayern to lose a 2-0 lead, but they did £400 staked – Win / Lose on Bet365 and the draw on William Hill using the odds boost. risk of £5 in total. I then cashed in the Liverpool draw on the Exchange yesterday using the same bet… for £70 when 3-2 so £396 + £65 in two days ain’t bad. Doesn’t take long to stake something like this either, so if you have the cash, then why not have a go? risk can be more than a fiver mind, is sometimes nearer £15, but then I usually split the score draws and try and take any losses on 0-0 if I can’t use a boost.

On another note, I backed off a few lines of a 12 fold Footy acca which eventually came in for me yesterday – For the first time I used a bookie who I won’t be using again or be irresponsible enough to name and therefore link to on here, but let’s just say that if they had a sister betting company it might be called BetWilma because their joke of a withdrawal process is stuck in the stone age. 48 hours to process a withdrawal and then 12 hours to allow it to hit your paypal account? If the £360 I withdrew was my only money in the world, how do they think I am going to lay a bet with them today? Are they Stupid? How do they survive? That’s a rhetorical question of course, because plainly they make their money by accruing interest from holding onto your winnings for 48hours – Think about it… If you lose, they make interest, if you win, they minimise their losses by making interest. Damn Cheek and they can go forth and X as far as I am concerned.

Hi Ryan

Fair point! I’m obviously new on here and ‘risk’ above nil qualifying loss clearly appears to be a no-no. However, if we are bringing probability into the equation, then we need to look at the bigger picture. I’m not quite playing the lottery here eh?

Checking back I have made 38 such bets. Can’t find an ‘arb’ percentage upside on these and if it were possible, then I guess you would have? …because they have to be with 365 …and sometimes I do both sides on 365 and risk even more. Had Wolfsburg scored a third I would have cleaned up. But as you say, what would be the odds on that?

So, so far I have laid 38 x 2-up bets risking £5 or £7 (£500 – £507staked for £500), which have returned me upside 4 times with a total profit of £725.00 – The way I look at it, if I need 1/100 or 1/85 to land in order to break even, then that’s not a bad probability… and that doesn’t account for cash-out opportunities if a 2-up goes 2-1.

As it happens I have a 1 in 9.5 strike rate by being selective. And Bayern are not on top top form, with Wolfsburg having drawn 2/4 so far this season before the game on Friday. So although it was the only match qualifying on the day, I reckoned it was worth a punt.

To be honest, I think your jaw might drop at how much I risk every weekend – I try and minimise my risk as much as possible, but have my own system which takes form and probability into account but which regularly sees me placing upwards of 128 permed accas on Bet365 on a Saturday (£60-£70 on average) and then the same again on Sunday. The Euro Bonus helps big style… (80% bonus on a 12 fold, 70% on an 11 fold etc).

Last 3 consecutive weekends I have had 1 x 11folds then 1 x 11 fold followed by 1 x 12 fold. I always dutch the last leg which is a stand-alone 19.45pm kick off … usually a steeply priced Barcelona or Sevilla, Real Madrid etc… costs me no more than £300/£350 to lay with a £1200 return due on the standing Acca. £616, £670 and £770 profit on the bounce over the last 3 weekends.

It’s not match betting I know, but I personally enjoy the sport element, and have netted low to mid range five figure sums every year over the last 5 years. lowest was about £17k.

IMO There is value in this… but if you break out in hives where a £5 risk comes into play, then I understand it’s not for you.

Ay up… code

You were asking for help working out a dutching calculation yday, now claiming you’ve made over £100k by using a method involving dutching ffs

Then suggest I’m patronising after your comments about making people’s jaws drop and not understanding risk on here

My question the other day was about lay betting and questioning the value of a specific laying of a favourite (Roma) or alternatively backing the outsider and the draw in two separate sportsbook bets. it was about value not dutching. Dutching was the process I was working through, it was the values I was questioning. I worked it out for myself in the end and backed the two outcomes separately.