Wed 13th Jan – Sky Bet – 16:35 Kempton
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Money back if your horse loses to the fav.
Will undoubtedly be blogged on main site, but in my experience you might find a better match tonight once Sky get their odds up. Seems to be a wide gap in odds on the morning of the race.
+0January 12, 2016 at 5:12 pm
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Odds now up, 2 clear favourites so maybe, just maybe the SP Fav might actually win this one and bring home the bacon!
+0Last few haven’t come in but this looks slightly more promising. I’ll probably still lay the favourite to be sure.
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cheers Tony, backed & underlayed 2nd fav at 2.75 and 2.80. break even if it wins and lose 1.92 if doesn’t. will lay fav nearer the time for a guaranteed profit{hopefully stay the fav and doesn’t drift}
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Odds already moved 🙁
+0On these offers what is the strategy for laying the favorite as well?
Matt does not talk about that on his write ups. Do you do a normal matched bet and then lay the favorite with some of the potential money made from the free bet?If there are 2 close favorites then there is a risk that one we lay might not be the SP fav?
+0I just messaged Matt on this one as I can see a no risk win here for us all and here’s how
This is what was originally in Matts blog on 3 possible outcomes (obviously you have to take your qualifying loss into acount depending on how tight you can get the odds) But then by laying for arguments sake and simple maths you lay £10 on the favourite. the outcomes become as follows. The liability at odds of 1.79 = £7.89 adjust for different odds.
Southern Storm wins +275.00 – £277.35 = £2.35 loss + £9.80 = £7.45 profit
The favourite wins -£25.00 + £22.65 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £17.65 profit – £7.89 = £9.76 profit
Neither wins -£25.00 + £22.65 = £2.35 loss + £9.80 = £7.45I know its less profit than if the favourite did win but in this scenario you get £7.45 if the favourite doesn’t win and £9.76 if he does (or whatever figures you calc using different odds , stake and liability)
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sky bet currently under going maintenance
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Yeah, you do exactly what you have described. Matt used to blog it that way, so if you look back though his profit log for Sky Bet horse race offers you might find an old post that gives the exact instructions.
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Thanks for your help on this Shaun. I have set up a spreadsheet to guarantee profit from these offers as we all know that most of the time the hot favourite ends up being some 3 legged thing that can’t keep up
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Shaun, could well be missing something here but I don’t see that as no risk?
If the favourite wins and Southern Storm is 2nd that’s all well and good, however if SS comes 3rd or lower you’re in the red due to no £20 free bet extraction?
+0SS does not have to come 2nd or 3rd this offer is only about the favourite winning and your horse losing.
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Aha, knew it. Read automatically as MB if 2nd to SP fav, was wondering why there was such a fuss about it.
Nice one, sorry.
+0or indeed any of the combinations I have listed any of which is a road to profit as long as you lay the SP favourite so its basically keeping an eye on the market to ensure you do lay the SP favourite as sometimes it can be quite tight on who the SP favourite is.
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Odds laughable – cannot get on this one, even now, close to the off.
Well done to those that got on yesterday (like I said to do but then didn’t myself!! haha)
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yeah not looking good is it
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