Ladbrokes Offer – Tottenham v Chelsea

Chelsea travel to Tottenham for the lunchtime kick-off on Sunday and Ladbrokes are getting in on the action. If both teams score in Tottenham v Chelsea, Ladbrokes will refund losing Match Result (WDW), First Goalscorer, Half Time/Full Time and Correct Score bets as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.27 and here’s how…

Qualifying bet

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

There are a couple of different ways we can do this offer. If you’ve been following my blog over the last couple of months, you’ll know that I usually like to bank a guaranteed profit of just under £5.00 on these Ladbrokes offers. I’ve received a few comments about this strategy and it seems the majority of people like to place a straightforward back and lay on the match result market and let it run. Whichever method you opt for, the long-term profit should work out to be about the same, but I’ve decided to go with the majority this week. I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a draw, as this has the best chance of losing given the current odds.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using the following matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.74…

ladbrokes

Place £25.00 on a draw @ 3.40 = Potential profit of £60.00

smarkets white

Lay £23.74 on a draw @ 3.60 = Potential liability of £61.73

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Score draw + £60.00 – £61.73 = £1.73 loss
0-0 draw + £60.00 – £61.73 = £1.73 loss
Not a draw and both teams score -£25.00 + £23.27 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.27 profit
Not a draw and someone keeps a clean sheet -£25.00 + £23.27 = £1.73 loss

So if the game isn’t drawn and both teams score, we will make a profit of £18.27. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £1.73. Risking £1.73 to make £18.27 profit gives us effective odds of 11.56, so the fact that the odds of both teams scoring are currently 1.72, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.