It’s the Manchester derby on Sunday and Ladbrokes have come up with the goods again. If both teams score in Manchester United v Manchester City, Ladbrokes will refund losing Match Result (WDW), First Goalscorer, Half Time/Full Time and Correct Score bets as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £4.42 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Manchester City to win.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
Place £25.00 on Man City @ 2.70 = Potential profit of £42.50
Lay £23.12 on Man City @ 2.94 = Potential liability of £44.85
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| Man City win and both teams score | +£42.50 – £44.85 = £2.35 loss |
| Man City win and keep a clean sheet | +£42.50 – £44.85 = £2.35 loss |
| Man City don’t win and both teams score | -£25.00 + £22.65 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £17.65 profit |
| Man City don’t win and someone keeps a clean sheet | -£25.00 + £22.65 = £2.35 loss |
As things stand, if Man City don’t win and both teams score, we will make a profit of £17.65, but we’ll lose £2.35 on any other outcome. We now need to lay both teams to score at odds of 1.84. To work out our lay stake, we need to divide £20.00 by (lay odds minus 0.02), so £20.00 divided by 1.82 gives us a lay stake of £10.99.
Lay £10.99 on Both Teams to Score @ 1.84 = Potential liability of £9.23
Let’s have a look at our current profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| Man City win and both teams score | -£2.35 – £9.23 = £11.58 loss |
| Man City win and keep a clean sheet | -£2.35 + £10.77 = £8.42 profit |
| Man City don’t win and both teams score | £17.65 – £9.23 = £8.42 profit |
| Man City don’t win and someone keeps a clean sheet | -£2.35 + £10.77 = £8.42 profit |
So now as things stand, as long as the game doesn’t see Man City win with both teams scoring, we will make a profit of £8.42, otherwise we’ll lose £11.58. We now need to place a back bet on Man City winning and both teams scoring at odds of 5.00. To work out our stake, we need to divide £20.00 by 5.00, which gives us a back stake of £4.00.
Place £4.00 on ‘Man City to win and both teams to score’ @ 5.00 = Potential profit of £16.00
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| Man City win and both teams score | -£11.58 + £16.00 = £4.42 profit |
| Man City win and keep a clean sheet | £8.42 – £4.00 = £4.42 profit |
| Man City don’t win and both teams score | £8.42 – £4.00 = £4.42 profit |
| Man City don’t win and someone keeps a clean sheet | £8.42 – £4.00 = £4.42 profit |
So regardless of the result of the match, we will make a guaranteed profit of £4.42 on this offer.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £100,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.