It’s Man Utd v Barcelona in the Champions League Quarter-Finals on Wednesday and you don’t want to miss this Golden Goal offer from William Hill! Simply place a bet on Man Utd or Barcelona to win the match and if our selected team scores first, but doesn’t go on to win, William Hill will pay us out as a winner, in cash, up to £50.00! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £66.97 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Promotion available on selected matches from 00:00:01 on 5th January 2019 until 23:59:59 on 1st June 2019.
- Qualifying Single bets must be placed on the 90 Minutes market for Man Utd v Barcelona.
- Qualifying bets must be placed before 20:00 (kick-off) on Wednesday 10th April 2019.
Golden Goal Winnings:
Golden Goal winnings will be paid as cash, up to a maximum of £50.00 (plus our stake, or the proportion of our stake that contributed to those winnings).
- If we stake £100 at odds of 1.50 (1/2), we’ll receive £150 in cash (£50 winnings, plus our £100 stake)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 2.00 (evens), we’ll receive £100 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £50 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 3.50 (5/2), we’ll receive £70 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £20 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Man Utd in the 90 Minutes market.
If Man Utd score first and go on to draw or lose the match, our winnings will be paid in cash, up to a maximum of £50.00.
To calculate our back stake, we just need to divide £50.00 by 2.70 (back odds minus 1.00), which gives us £18.52. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so we should stake £20.00 instead.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss and biggest potential profit.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £18.83…
Place £20.00 on Man Utd @ 3.70 = Potential profit of £54.00
Lay £18.83 on Man Utd @ 3.95 = Potential liability of £55.54
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|
Man Utd score first and win | +£54.00 | -£55.54 | £1.54 loss |
Man Utd score first and don’t win | +£48.52 | +£18.45 | £66.97 profit |
Man Utd don’t score first and win | +£54.00 | -£55.54 | £1.54 loss |
Man Utd don’t score first and don’t win | -£20.00 | +£18.45 | £1.55 loss |
So, if Man Utd score first and go on to draw or lose the game, we’ll receive cash winnings of £50.00, plus the £18.52 of our stake that contributed to those winnings, giving us a profit of £48.52 at William Hill. We’ll also win £18.45 from our lay bet at Smarkets, giving us a nice overall profit of £66.97!
Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £1.55. Risking £1.55 to make a profit of £66.97, gives us effective odds of 44.21, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our cash winnings will be credited within 2 hours of the match finishing or by no later than 12:00 on Thursday 11th April 2019.
Note: If your team scores first, you can either let it run as above or place an extra back bet to lock in a profit. If you decide to guarantee a profit, you just need to divide the sum of your potential loss and potential profit by the back odds. For example, if the back odds are 1.80 (4/5), you would divide £68.51 (£1.54 + £66.97) by 1.80, giving you a back stake of £38.06 and a guaranteed profit of £28.91.
* Barcelona scored first and went on to win the match 1-0, resulting in a loss of £1.55 on this William Hill offer. *
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Sek
0Hi
I posted this on the forum, but it may be in the wrong place.
Can you confirm if this is right please.
If you did it the other way backing Barcelona. Would you stake £50 at 2.0 and then lay 48.08 at 2.1. Then if Barca score first and don’t win you would get £100 at williamhill and 48.08 on the exchange giving a profit of ~£98? or do you only get £50 back at williamhill?
I find the way the stake is returned at williamhill a bit confusing, so not sure.
Thanks
Matt
1490Don’t worry Sek, it’s not the easiest offer for working out your potential profit. You’ve understood things correctly though.
Those are the correct back and lay stakes for the odds you’re getting on Barcelona.
If Barcelona score first and go on to draw or lose the game, you’ll receive cash winnings of £50.00, plus the full £50.00 of your stake back, giving you a profit of £50.00 at William Hill. You would also win £47.11 from your lay bet at Smarkets, giving you an overall profit of £97.11.
Julien
Guest userHey Matt, would it be better value if we backed Barcelona to score first. £50 at odds of 2, unless I’m wrong.
Lay at 2.08 would give somewhere near £95?
Matt
1490That’s correct Julien, it’s just a matter of personal preference really.
Selecting Barcelona gives a greater potential profit but I would argue that it’s not as likely to come in. I tend to favour selecting the underdogs for these offers, hoping they score the first goal and go on to draw or lose the match.
Julien
Guest userOk perfect thanks.
And sorry, i didn’t see Seks comment about the same thing.
Matt
1490No worries Julien.
Vicky
Guest userYes I agree Matt. I think United could go ahead but barca would come back. Also less loss if the bet doesn’t come in….should’ve gone Wolves yesterday though
Matt
1490Yes that would have been a nice payout!
Allybaba
1Surely theological thing is to back Man U at £50? If they score first, but, draw / lose, then Hills return your stake PLUS the winnings (capped at £50) so a return of £100?
If they win the match you still get full winning vs?
Jimmy
Guest userTheological…..I’ll pass on your recommendation
Matt
1490If you stake £50.00 on Man Utd and they score first and go on to draw or lose the game, your returns would be as follows…
– £50.00 (stake) + £50.00 (capped winnings) + £18.52 (portion of stake that contributed to winnings) = £18.52 profit
Allybaba
1Thanks. Makes perfect sense. I like your thinking in a football sense, but would £50 on Barca at evens not yield potentially £100
Matt
1490Yes it would, but you have to consider that the odds of Barcelona letting a lead slip are greater than the odds of Man Utd letting a lead slip.
jimbojack
Guest userWith this offer it’s best to lay the next goal market on Betfair as opposed to the win market like you suggest.
You’ll find that this creates an Arb so therefore guarantees a profit regardless of the outcome. The total possible winnings are also slightly higher.
Jim
Guest userHow exactly? I agree it’s an arb but don’t see the higher possible win
Jim
Guest userAll I see is you might get the lay next goal then other team has to fully turn the game and win for more profit. But certainly not more than 67 or 90ish
Sam
Guest userExactly, where Matt’s way would win if your chosen team score first but go on to draw, this method only works if the game turns completely and the team who scores first goes on to lose
Jim
Guest userAlthough in this game I could easily see man u going ahead and then getting turned over Haha
Scott
Guest userCould you give a working example for this please? Struggling to figure out the finer details of doing it this way 🙂
Scott
Guest userMight have cracked it, please tell me if I am right or wrong though 🙂
Utd to win @ 3.7 £20 bet
Lay Utd next goal @ 2.76 £27.31 lay stake which is £48.07 liability
Utd first + win = +54 -48.07 = 5.94 profit
Utd first + no win = +48.52 -48.07 = 0.45 profit
Utd not first + win = +54 +25.94 = 79.94 profit
Utd not first + no win = -20 +25.94 = 5.94 profit
Scott
Guest userSorry to keep going on, I think this is what to do if you back Barca instead of Utd and It looks even better return?
Barca to win @ 2 £50 bet
Lay Barca next goal @ 1.78 £57.79 lay stake which is £45.08 liability
Barca first + win = +50 -45.08 = 4.92
Barca first + no win = +50 -45.08 = 4.92
Barca not first + win = +50 +54.91 = 104.91
Barca not first + no win = -50 +54.91 = 4.91
Jim
Guest userYeah you are right I clocked it not long after posting myself. It means a full turnaround in match so draw doesn’t get extra money. Personal choice i guess but i like original as Matt posts as an equaliser or turnaround gives good profit
Matt
1490The maths look good Scott. It’s certainly a viable way of playing it, but like Jim says, you’re needing a full turnaround rather than just a draw. The odds of a full turnaround would be a fair bit longer than the odds of a draw, so I’d be inclined to stick with the original method.
Scott
Guest userI guess the biggest factor in deciding could be do you want the arb or an extra scenario where the big win comes in (Both draw and loss, not just the loss)?
Matt
1490Agreed Scott. I’m not suggesting a guaranteed profit of £4.91 is to be sniffed at, but I suspect the large potential profit on offer will swing it for a lot of people.
Scott
Guest userTurns out the only variant that won mentioned is my initial take on it if by some miracle united turn this around haha, glad I at least got my guaranteed profit in though 🙂
Matt
1490Nicely done Scott.
PiotrBets
0Jimbojack, what calculator do you use to calculate the lay bet?
Jim
Guest userI backed Barca and locked in profit after goal not too bad
Bob
Guest userSame here, worked out about £23 I think (not as great as the £90+ possible but better than a loss)
Matt
1490Well played guys.