It’s Man Utd v Chelsea in the Premier League on Sunday and you don’t want to miss this Golden Goal offer from William Hill! Simply place a bet on Man Utd or Chelsea to win the match and if our selected team scores first, but doesn’t go on to win, William Hill will pay us out as a winner, in cash, up to £50.00! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £77.55 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Promotion available on selected matches from 00:00:01 on 5th January 2019 until 23:59:59 on 1st June 2019.
- Qualifying Single bets must be placed on the 90 Minutes market for Man Utd v Chelsea.
- Qualifying bets must be placed before 16:30 (kick-off) on Sunday 28th April 2019.
Golden Goal Winnings:
Golden Goal winnings will be paid as cash, up to a maximum of £50.00 (plus our stake, or the proportion of our stake that contributed to those winnings).
- If we stake £100 at odds of 1.50 (1/2), we’ll receive £150 in cash (£50 winnings, plus our £100 stake)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 2.00 (evens), we’ll receive £100 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £50 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 3.50 (5/2), we’ll receive £70 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £20 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Chelsea in the 90 Minutes market.
If Chelsea score first and go on to draw or lose the match, our winnings will be paid in cash, up to a maximum of £50.00.
To calculate our back stake, we just need to divide £50.00 by 1.70 (back odds minus 1.00), which gives us £29.41. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so we should stake £30.00 instead.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £28.72…
Place £30.00 on Chelsea @ 2.70 = Potential profit of £51.00
Lay £28.72 on Chelsea @ 2.84 = Potential liability of £52.84
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|
Chelsea score first and win | +£51.00 | -£52.84 | £1.84 loss |
Chelsea score first and don’t win | +£49.41 | +£28.14 | £77.55 profit |
Chelsea don’t score first and win | +£51.00 | -£52.84 | £1.84 loss |
Chelsea don’t score first and don’t win | -£30.00 | +£28.14 | £1.86 loss |
So, if Chelsea score first and go on to draw or lose the game, we’ll receive cash winnings of £50.00, plus the £29.41 of our stake that contributed to those winnings, giving us a profit of £49.41 at William Hill. We’ll also win £28.14 from our lay bet at Smarkets, giving us an overall potential profit of £77.55!
Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £1.86. Risking £1.86 to make a profit of £77.55, gives us effective odds of 42.69, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our cash winnings will be credited within 3 hours of the match finishing or by no later than 12:00 on Monday 29th April 2019.
Note: If your team scores first, you can either let it run as above or place an extra back bet to lock in a profit. If you decide to guarantee a profit, you just need to divide the sum of your potential loss and potential profit by the back odds. For example, if the back odds are 1.80 (4/5), you would divide £79.39 (£1.84 + £77.55) by 1.80, giving you a back stake of £44.11 and a guaranteed profit of £33.44.
* Man Utd scored first and the match was drawn 1-1, resulting in a loss of £1.86 on this William Hill offer. *
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Scott
Guest userJust in case anyone is interested in the arb next goal lay with betfair I will post my workings out with current odds as I write this. As the odds are pretty similar I have shown the workings for betting on each team.
Man Utd to win £31 @ 2.6 Wins £49.60
Man Utd next goal Lay £37.49 Stake (£44.98 Liability) @ 2.2
Man Utd score first and win +49.60 -44.98 =4.62
Man Utd score first and no win +49.60 -44.98 =4.62
Man Utd not score first and no win -31 +35.61 =4.61
Man Utd not score first and win +49.60 +35.61 =85.21
Chelsea to win £29 @ 2.7 Wins £49.30
Chelsea next goal Lay £35.75 Stake (£44.33 Liability) @ 2.24
Chelsea score first and win +49.30 -44.33 =4.97
Chelsea score first and no win +49.30 -44.33 =4.97
Chelsea not score first and no win -29 +33.96 =4.96
Chelsea not score first and win +49.30 +33.96 =83.26
Betty McBetface
0If the match is goalless do both bets lose?
Matt
1490No you would win your Man Utd/Chelsea Next Goal lay bet.
Betty McBetface
0Thanks Matt.
I just wondered why there was a third option of ‘No Goal’ in the Betfair Next Goal market and if this was for the goalless result?
Ryan Berry
10By having a goalless game, you’ll win the lay of next goal… as Man Utd / Chelsea didn’t score first
If the other team scores first or no team does, then it doesn’t matter
Betty McBetface
0Aha….I get it now….thank you for your patience both 🙂
Betty McBetface
0One other thing please…..
I’d already bet Man Utd £30 at 2.6 (to win £48) but haven’t placed the Betfair next goal lay yet.
The odds are now 2.18…how do I recalculate the lay stake?
Betty McBetface
0….now 2.16
Scott
10So long as your bookie return is not over £50 (this is the max the promotion will give you back if they score first but dont win) you can simply use a Qualifying Bet type in the calculator and punch the odds in and the next goal lay in the lay and it will tell you everything you need to know as it is a simple arb at the base of things.
If your bookie bet coming in results in more than the £50 (obviously this time yours isn’t, but sometimes it can if you are keeping your bets rounded) then you might need to click show advanced and underlay a bit to even out the returns in all outcomes.
I write all the outcomes and manually add the numbers together just for peace of mind, but on the occasions where the bookie return was more than £50 I find it easier to do this so I can tweak the numbers until the returns are to my liking.
Hope that helps? 🙂
bobb
Guest userHi Scott your method is another viable option but with a minor downside. With your method there is the minor possibilty of not knowing you are gubbed and more open to a potential larger loss?
Scott
10Why would you say my method has more of a possibility than the other?
At the bookie you are just placing the bet the same as anyone using the other method? If you mean because in this example my bet isn’t rounded might be seen as odd, I have only done it once or maybe twice, and on this occasion it was actually all of the balance in my account.
bobb
Guest userMy concern isnt that your method is linked to not knowing if you are gubbed. Think you missed my point. You might be unsure at times under either method. My point was about potential losses of your money under each method.
Betty McBetface
0Yes, thank you Scott 🙂
Scott
10Besides, while I have never been gubbed, I am pretty sure you are notified via email, so how would you not know and how is that related to my method? 🙂
bobb
Guest userI was looking for confirmation I’m not trying to be critical, just something to bare in mind. In your examples if the second outcome happens and WH don’t pay as a golden goal goodwill where would the bets leave you? would you lose next goal liabilty, your WH stake and not get winnings
I have seen some people ask whether they are eligible or unsure if gubbed at times on various bookies. It was just a consideration for people to bare in mind if unsure that they are eligible.
I think Matts method….no matter what the worst is you can lose £1.50 to £2 I think?
Scott
10I didn’t see you as being critical mate, quite the contrary I was making sure I hadn’t missed something and was asking for clarity 🙂
I do understand your point now though, using my method if we where to be gubbed between placing the bets and getting the returns, as my way relies on the promotion to make sure you stay above water (where as Matts uses that for the double payout) my way has risk in that sense.
I have no problem with you pointing that out at all, agree the risk/chance is very minimal but it is one none the less 🙂
I don’t get anything out of “helping” my suggesting this way so of course I have no need to be protective of it haha, I’m sorry if what I said sounded like I was being.
bobb
Guest useralso sometimes you can be gubbed and you get an email hours later or not at all
Jamie
Guest userI go for the guaranteed by placing an extra back bet when a goal goes in, can this be used with the next goal arb?
Scott
10Sorry mate, you might have to explain to me how that way guarantees profit? Say you’ve bet on Chelsea and they score first, I can see how then backing them to win you can share out the the big profit from that. But if the team you’ve backed doesn’t score first how do you guarantee profit? I could be missing something though 🙂
With the next goal lay it would work in the same way I said about, I suppose if the team you have backed don’t score first you could lay them winning and split the big money that way. If they do score first I don’t see how you could do anything else though, as your bookie bet will now win regardless of the result, and you cant back or lay anything to counter that its impossible (as your only bet left covers all possible results)
Jamie
Guest userUsing Matt’s note in italics at the top of the page pal
Scott
10Ah yeah ok, so what I said basically haha. If the team you backed scores first (in Matts method) or doesn’t score first (using the next goal lay) you can share the profits out, but only if the right team scores.
So in that case did I answer your questions by explaining how you would do it when laying next goal? If the team you backed at the bookie doesn’t score first, you can lay them winning. Bear in mind the odds on that will be rubbish as they have just conceded, so you will have to concede a lot of the potential profit to even it out.
Using todays game as an example, chelsea are currently 7.2 odds to lay the win. Meaning to get just £5 extra profit out of the non big win you would have to sacrifice £31 from the big win.
Does that all make sense and help at all mate?
Aaron
Guest userThe most likely option is the team that scores first goes on to win. Wouldn’t it make sense to close out the position with a back bet at 1-0, and then put the profit back into another back bet on the team that went 1 up?
So I took utd at 2.62, closed the position with a back bet at odds of 1.64 for a profit of £28.81. If I put that £28.81 on utd, that gets me £47. It’s the most likely option, but a bird in the hand and all that…
Fordy
44Still think in the long run, Matts method is the most profitable. We’ve just been incredibly unlucky with the picks!
Vicky
Guest userGlad I went for the arb today as went for Chelsea to score first so would’ve lost again. Well done anyone that went for Man Utd and did Matt’s method
simon2000
2I put £30 on man u at 2.70 (=£81 if win or £50 if score first)
Can’t understand why WH have credited me £79.41 rather than £80 ? Very odd
simon2000
2That should be £80 (£50 return plus £30 stake) not £50
Scott
10I would check back, mine looked a few pence short but it has now changed to be right. If you look under settled bets section then click All on the left it will show the adjustment they made for golden goal 🙂
Matt
1490£79.41 is the correct amount Simon.
Instead of receiving the full £51.00 winnings, your winnings were capped at £50.00.
You only get back the portion of your stake that contributed to your winnings…
£50.00 (capped winnings) / £51.00 (standard winnings) * £30.00 (stake) = £29.41 (returned stake)
So…
– £30.00 (initial stake) + £50.00 (capped winnings) + £29.41 (returned stake) = £79.41 (total returns)
Josh
Guest userFinally it came in! Left placing the bet until few hours before match and united had the smallest QL, congrats to everyone who got lucky on this one.
Tointy501
Guest userHi all backed utd At 2.70 with 25 cashed out bet fair losing 16 what’s my expected return and what’s the latest they pay out had five wins without need of golden goal cheers keith
Matt D
7Anyone else not had theirs credited? My account is saying i cashed in 2 minutes before the actual bet???
Covenant
0Nailed it again. Many thanks
Matt
1490Well played everyone who was on Man Utd!