£71.26
Potential Profit
£-1.47
Actual Profit

Watford v Arsenal Offer – William Hill


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 15/04/2019 20:00

It’s Watford v Arsenal in the Premier League on Monday and you don’t want to miss this Golden Goal offer from William Hill! Simply place a bet on Watford or Arsenal to win the match and if our selected team scores first, but doesn’t go on to win, William Hill will pay us out as a winner, in cash, up to £50.00! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £71.26 and here’s how…

Banner showing the Watford v Arsenal offer from William Hill

Key Terms:

  • Promotion available on selected matches from 00:00:01 on 5th January 2019 until 23:59:59 on 1st June 2019.
  • Qualifying Single bets must be placed on the 90 Minutes market for Watford v Arsenal.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed before 20:00 (kick-off) on Monday 15th April 2019.

Golden Goal Winnings:

Golden Goal winnings will be paid as cash, up to a maximum of £50.00 (plus our stake, or the proportion of our stake that contributed to those winnings).

  • If we stake £100 at odds of 1.50 (1/2), we’ll receive £150 in cash (£50 winnings, plus our £100 stake)
  • If we stake £100 at odds of 2.00 (evens), we’ll receive £100 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £50 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
  • If we stake £100 at odds of 3.50 (5/2), we’ll receive £70 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £20 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Watford in the 90 Minutes market.

If Watford score first and go on to draw or lose the match, our winnings will be paid in cash, up to a maximum of £50.00.

To calculate our back stake, we just need to divide £50.00 by 2.20 (back odds minus 1.00), which gives us £22.73. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so we should stake £25.00 instead.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss and biggest potential profit.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.02…

William Hill logo

Place £25.00 on Watford @ 3.20 = Potential profit of £55.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £24.02 on Watford @ 3.35 = Potential liability of £56.44

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeProfit/Loss
Watford score first and win+£55.00-£56.44£1.44 loss
Watford score first and don't win+£47.73+£23.53£71.26 profit
Watford don't score first and win+£55.00-£56.44£1.44 loss
Watford don't score first and don't win-£25.00+£23.53£1.47 loss

So, if Watford score first and go on to draw or lose the game, we’ll receive cash winnings of £50.00, plus the £22.73 of our stake that contributed to those winnings, giving us a profit of £47.73 at William Hill. We’ll also win £23.53 from our lay bet at Smarkets, giving us a nice overall profit of £71.26!

Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £1.47. Risking £1.47 to make a profit of £71.26, gives us effective odds of 49.48, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, our cash winnings will be credited within 2 hours of the match finishing or by no later than 12:00 on Tuesday 16th April 2019.

Note: If your team scores first, you can either let it run as above or place an extra back bet to lock in a profit. If you decide to guarantee a profit, you just need to divide the sum of your potential loss and potential profit by the back odds. For example, if the back odds are 1.80 (4/5), you would divide £72.70 (£1.44 + £71.26) by 1.80, giving you a back stake of £40.39 and a guaranteed profit of £30.87.

* Arsenal scored first and went on to win the match 1-0, resulting in a loss of £1.47 on this William Hill offer. *

Comments


  1. jack

    Guest user

    where does the £22.73 of our stake come from when calculating the potential profit? and how does that generate a potential profit of £47.73 at will hill?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      167

      The calculation is as follows Jack…

      – £25.00 (stake) + £50.00 (capped winnings) + £22.73 (stake returned) = £47.73 (profit at William Hill)

      If Watford score first and go on to draw or lose, we only receive the portion of our stake back that contributed to our capped winnings…

      £50.00 (capped) / £55.00 (winnings) = 0.909
      0.909 * £25.00 (stake) = £22.73 (stake returned)

      I hope that helps!

      +1
      Reply
  2. George S

    Guest user

    What happens if Arsenal score first and Watford equalise and the match ends? Don’t we risk losing all?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      167

      We would lose £1.47 George, as shown in the table above.

      +0
      Reply
  3. Cameron S

    Guest user

    Can we do this for both Watford and Arsenal on William hill or have I missed something in terms and conditions that you can’t back both teams?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      167

      As per the terms Cameron…

      ‘Only your first qualifying bet on the Golden Goal match will count towards this offer (i.e. the bet struck with the lowest bet receipt number). Subsequent bets will not count.’

      +1
      Reply
  4. KJ

    Guest user

    Hey Matt, quick question on locking in the profit. Because it wont be a round amount, I assume it will be best to back on an exchange. Anything we need to calculate before backing on an exchange?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      167

      It’s best to place it wherever has the best odds. You can just round your back stake off if betting at a bookmaker. So instead of staking £40.39, you would stake £40.00. It’s not going to make a massive amount of difference to your guaranteed profit figures.

      +0
      Reply

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