It’s Watford v Wolves in the second FA Cup Semi-Final on Sunday and you don’t want to miss this Golden Goal offer from William Hill! Simply place a bet on Watford or Wolves to win the match and if our selected team scores first, but doesn’t go on to win, William Hill will pay us out as a winner, in cash, up to £50.00! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £71.61 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Promotion available on selected matches from 00:00:01 on 5th January 2019 until 23:59:59 on 1st June 2019.
- Qualifying Single bets must be placed on the 90 Minutes market for Watford v Wolves.
- Qualifying bets must be placed before 16:00 (kick-off) on Sunday 7th April 2019.
Golden Goal Winnings:
Golden Goal winnings will be paid as cash, up to a maximum of £50.00 (plus our stake, or the proportion of our stake that contributed to those winnings).
- If we stake £100 at odds of 1.50 (1/2), we’ll receive £150 in cash (£50 winnings, plus our £100 stake)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 2.00 (evens), we’ll receive £100 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £50 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 3.50 (5/2), we’ll receive £70 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £20 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Watford in the 90 Minutes market.
If Watford score first and go on to draw or lose the match, our winnings will be paid in cash, up to a maximum of £50.00.
To calculate our back stake, we just need to divide £50.00 by 2.10 (back odds minus 1.00), which gives us £23.81. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so we should stake £25.00 instead.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.27…
Place £25.00 on Watford @ 3.10 = Potential profit of £52.50
Lay £23.27 on Watford @ 3.35 = Potential liability of £54.68
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|
Watford score first and win | +£52.50 | -£54.68 | £2.18 loss |
Watford score first and don’t win | +£48.81 | +£22.80 | £71.61 profit |
Watford don’t score first and win | +£52.50 | -£54.68 | £2.18 loss |
Watford don’t score first and don’t win | -£25.00 | +£22.80 | £2.20 loss |
So, if Watford score first and go on to draw or lose the game, we’ll receive cash winnings of £50.00, plus the £23.81 of our stake that contributed to those winnings, giving us a profit of £48.81 at William Hill. We’ll also win £22.80 from our lay bet at Smarkets, giving us a nice overall profit of £71.61!
Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £2.20. Risking £2.20 to make a profit of £71.61, gives us effective odds of 33.55, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our cash winnings will be credited within 2 hours of the match finishing or by 12:00 on Monday 8th April 2019.
Note: If your team scores first, you can either let it run as above or place an extra back bet to lock in a profit. If you decide to guarantee a profit, you just need to divide the sum of your potential loss and potential profit by the back odds. For example, if the back odds are 1.80 (4/5), you would divide £73.79 (£2.18 + £71.61) by 1.80, giving you a back stake of £40.99 and a guaranteed profit of £30.61.
* Wolves scored first and went on to draw the match 2-2 (after 90 minutes), resulting in a loss of £2.20 on this William Hill offer. *
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Ben
Guest userHi, first time laying a bet. Do I need to back against Watford for £54.68 total on smarkets?
I’ve backed Watford on will hill £25 to win.
Thanks
Matt
1490£54.68 is your liability Ben.
You need to enter your back and lay odds into the calculator and your lay stake will be shown.
In the example above, we lay £23.27 @ odds of 3.35. If our lay bet wins, we’ll receive £22.80, which is our stake of £23.27 minus 2% commission. If our lay bet doesn’t win, we lose our liability, which is £54.68 (£23.27 * 2.35).
I’d recommend reading through my three newbie guides before getting involved with these higher value offers.
Ben
Guest userThanks, everything makes sense it was just a few of the terms that were getting me confused.
So basically I backed against Watford on the exchange (against = laying the bet correct?) And my stake was the £54.68 (which covers my liability, correct?).
Matt
1490The stake is the amount you enter into the box when placing the bet. That’s the amount you stand to win as you are effectively playing the roll of bookmaker. If your bet wins, you get to keep the backer’s stake. If your bet loses, you have to pay the backer winnings of £54.68. You need to have enough funds in your exchange account to cover the £54.68 liability.
Guy
Guest userMatt
When would you suggest betting on this game?
With the horses usually bet on the morning or day of the race unless its a big event the for instance Grand National coming up….
Would you generally leave it to the day or just back/lay when you are happy with the qualifying loss?
Thanks
Matt
1490I think it’s generally best to leave it until closer to the event as that’s when punters are most likely to be betting on the game. Even if that means taking a slightly higher qualifying loss, it’s probably the best strategy in the long run.
Chris
Guest userI reckon it could come off tomorrow. 2 evenly matched sides
Barney
0Hi,
Couldn’t you simply back say Watford to win and then lay against next goal to score Watford. There seems to be a good difference in the odds.
But one thing I am uncertain on is the rules for the next goal market. If I lay against Watford to score the next goal and it ends 0-0. Does it mean that I have won that bet as Watford didn’t score the next goal, or lost it because there was no next goal?
If it is the former then there is a small profit to be had but if the latter you are risking it not being 0-0.
Would this work? or have I overlooked something or misunderstood the next goal rules.
Bobb
Guest userWhat are your odds? If Watford score in 89th minute and win 1-0 where will you stand?
Barney
0Just a £4 profit but risk free
But if wolves score first, i can then do a quick lay on Watford, as my original back at WH still stands.
Then I will get the next goal lay money, and depending on final result
original bet – second lay cost or second lay on watford.
If wolves score first the odds for watford will likely shoot to 6.5 if quick and then that is a £12 riskfree, I think?
Alternatively, if it is a very early wolves goal I can see if watford look likely to get back in and ride it out and hope for an equalizer, which would increase the second lay profit when the odds shorten, or even a watford win, where i will get my original bet back plus the next goal lay and double win.
To me it seems a less risky way of benefiting from this promotion at the expense of the big win but i am new to this so I think i have overlooked or interpreted something wrong and just wanted to check.
Steve55
Guest userHi Barney.. you would still win if it was 0-0…as long as you are happy taking the small profit.
Just be aware of the liquidity in the next goal market when you lay…if they cannot match at the time you want to place the lay it may screw you up.
GL.
Barney
0Thanks, I’ll look out for that.