Horse Racing Betting Question

  • Tried to do the second place redcar offer yesterday and failed didnt get 1 second place

    But the bets I did make made me £74 at the bookies – £37 lost on laying them on the exchanges for a profit of £36 all from £5 stakes across 2 bookies

    Is this kind of lay betting sustainable long term or did i just get lucky

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    Hi rebel.

    You don’t explain how you made a profit. If you did the offers the standard way then you would back and lay for a Qualifying Loss. In theory you would be making a small (~£1) loss on each race, gambling on getting a 2nd place (by a length?).

    How did you make the profit, were you underlaying the horses? Did you find arbs on the horses?

    Can you break down where your profit came from?

    Have you actually won £74 at the bookies or are you including your stakes there – is that returns or profit?

    £36 profit in one day wouldn’t indicate a sustainable long term strategy. It’s very easy to make money gambling day by day – unless you have an edge somewhere though, the days you lose you will lose more and more often but still very likely to have a lot of winning days.

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    rebelredneck 0

    Yes your first statement is correct I followed the guide here and picked horses which were like 1 point off or less (EG 7.6 at the bookies v 8.2 at the exchange) giving me a small loss according to the calculator on both sides and if the horse came 2nd I would qualify for a free bet I was staking £5 per race as I only have a small bank I am trying to grow.

    Profit comes from returns from bookies inc stake race 2 £30 + Race 7 £36.25 + Race 8 £48 = £114.25

    My exchange liabilities for those races were £14.49 + £28.51 + £37.50 = £80.50

    £114.25 – £80.50 = £33.75 the other £3 or £4 is made up of exchange wins etc

    Am I looking at this wrong as I am confused

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    Tony 12

    This makes no sense.

    Let’s take Race 2 – you say that you were staking £5, so given that you said you had a return of £30 it must have been odds of 5/1 (6.0) so your profit was £25?

    You also say that your liability for Race 2 was £14.49, so if we assume that you got lay odds of 6.0 (which I suspect you didn’t given your comment above) this means that you only layed a stake of around £2.90 at the exchange? If so this is called “underlaying” which means you lay less then the required amount for an optimally balanced match bet.

    By (most likely unintentionally) underlaying in this manner your net position on Race 2 would have been +£10.50 if the horse won or -£2.16 if the horse lost. The horse won, so you did well. You then did well on another 2 races, on horses that appear to have been backed at even higher odds than 5/1 (6.0) based on the return figures you have quoted above and again, underlayed them.

    The chance of 3 horses at 5/1+ winning is high, so it seems that you were just plain lucky that your underlaying tactic worked, so unfortunately this is not profitable long term. Also, consider that your liability on these horses NOT winning was nearly half your stake, so take this up a level with £25 stakes and you are staring at significant losses when the horses stop winning.

    The real question is were you intentionally underlaying these bets? Which calculator were you using, as the one on this site has no underlay options.

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    I’m very confused by this. What horse did you back in “race 2”? At what price did you back? And what price did you lay?

    You may have had some BOG go in your favour but I don’t even know how you got £30 returned on a £5 stake on race 2 in Redcar yesterday as the winner was the 2/1 favourite. Maybe there was an offer on another meet, but I don’t see any 5/1 winners at Redcar at all yesterday which is what you would need to get paid out £30…

    If you backed and layed to make a small loss in each race and you didn’t hit any 2nd place refunds then I don’t see how you made a profit overall. You’re probably just missing something obvious.

    It doesn’t really make sense to me what you are saying. Maybe I am missing something. Did you back these horses early. Like to return £48 from a £5 stake is odds of 9.6 which isn’t 8/1 or 9/1 or even 19/2. It’s not really odds that bookie would offer. Maybe you got some BOG and/or some Rule 4 deductions that worked out in your favour.

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    rebelredneck 0

    Tony

    I was doing the bets at 2 bookies then laying both off at the exchange according to what the calculator told me to lay … I was not underlaying

    Race 2 I had £5 stake at odds of 2.37 at both bookies as the both paid out £15 each hence £30 inc stake and price bonus (for this win only). At the exchange I layed 1 bookie off at odds of 2.48 with a stake of £4.88 and the second bookie I got odds of 2.50 with a stake of £4.84 according to the calculator on this site

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    rebelredneck 0

    FoG

    Yes for race 2 at redcar yesterday which did have a price boost

    REDCAR
    14:45 MAIDEN STAKES 7f
    21st of Sept 2016 2:45 pm
    Win or E/W
    Moi Moi Moi @ 2.37 (GP)

    But races 7 did not

    REDCAR
    17:35 HANDICAP 1m 2f
    21st of Sept 2016 5:35 pm
    Win or E/W
    Niblawi @ 3.75 (GP)

    And neither did 8

    REDCAR
    18:05 HANDICAP 6f
    21st of Sept 2016 6:05 pm
    Win or E/W
    Caeser The Gaeser @ 4.50 (GP)

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    On Race 2 yes, looks like you benefited from the BOG offer which is usually an unplanned for little bonus.

    In Race 7 you said your return was £36.25 (inc stake), so for £10 (5+5) stake the profit was £26.25. And your liability you said was £28.51. So that is a loss there on that race.

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