It’s a massive arb on rock the kasbar. No idea why. Need massive liability but can do small amounts across a few bookies. Easy money. Tons of liquidity in the exchange too

Why would you back at 13 on the exchange when the bookies are at 17?

This horse better not win lol

Gone now.

Oh dear. Lay market just died. Just put another £25 on and now I can’t lay lol

Tried 16 for £1 profit.

In case anyone is interested – BetFred have a price boost on at the moment for Aintree…..

Yorkhill (14:25), Douvan (15:00) & Thistlecrack (15:40) All To Win 2.25

Has anyone still got the liability for the 13:45? If so what are you going with / is it worth doing? It would seem it’s a bit of a long shot unless you can get tight odds

For the 1.45 I back and layed last night

Betstars – If In Doubt
Sky Bet – Arpege D’alene

got good odds lastnight on Squouateur, keeping my eye out for decent odds for a second go, only doing it if i can get less than £1 qualifier.

Goonyella
Gilgamboa
Buywise
Hadrian’s Approach

Big arbs this morning. If any of these finish 1st or 5th it’ll be party time. Knew the Boylesports account would come in useful after being gubbed from promos.

Then there’s the five Bet365 selections, too..!

Don’t forget that you can back more than one horse with Betstars on this offer. On Thursday they paid winnings for Arzal and the free bet for Sizing John.

But odds are tricky today. Managed to get Mydor (11/11.5) and Ballycross (21/22) earlier. Arpege Dalene (11/11.5) with Sky. I’ve stopped trying to do the top horses in these first race offers, they’re just too unpredictable! So going for close matches only.

Without checking I have gone the same as you Chris! Here’s hoping!

FIngers crossed

Lol what? Chris, yesterday you refused to back Gorbatov for roughly a £10 guaranteed profit on the basis that you didn’t want a liability being transferred to the bookie (circa £150). Once again, that’s fair enough. But now you’re taking a shot at the MB2 on If In Doubt. I assume you got something like 5.5/5.5? Your liability is over £100. In this case, the horse has (at best) a 20% probability of finishing second – roughly worth a maximum of £4 in the long run.

I do quite like seeing some of the biases that matched bettors continue to suffer from (just like casual punters). For example, when Gorbatov didn’t win yesterday, you were shouting about how Betfred had chosen a great horse for the boost. Afterwards, their other boost won (Cue Card / Annie Power double), but I guess you didn’t acknowledge it – some sort of confirmation bias. Nothing personal; I just think that people need to think more long-term and their performance across the year will be higher.

Edit: If In Doubt’s chance of coming second is closer to 10% than 20%.

Mark – I know you dont tend to post much in these threads, but out of interest do you do these type of offers, MBS / 2nd/3rd etc or is it dependent on odds / number of runners?

It depends on the value. For example, I wouldn’t back If In Doubt in the hope of getting a second place unless the qualifying loss was small enough (i.e. zero). I think it’s definitely worthwhile checking/estimating the probability of the horse finishing second.

I did If In Doubt last night for the Sky offer. Not bothered with the Betstars one yet as qualifying profit was too big earlier, will look again in a bit