Aintree Grand National Day Thread
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Sky Bet – Money back if second or third in 1.45
Betstars – Money back if second or third in 1.45
Bet365 – 4/1 offer on all Channel 4 races and the super offer for the 5.15 (see blog and other thread)
Betfair – 3/1 offer on all Channel 4 races+0April 8, 2016 at 7:04 pm
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If In Doubt was 5.5/5.5 with Betstars earlier, i took 5.5/5.7 last night
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Surprise, surprise havent got my Apollo Bet free bet for the National yet
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Mark, everyone comes at these offers from a different perspective. I feel Chris’ background is more gambling and horse knowledge, and yours is more mathematical.
So Chris sometimes makes judgement calls based on his knowledge, for you its all about the numbers.
Long run you may be right but there is no harm in picking and choosing which offers to go for and not to go for. At the end of the day you probably can’t do them all, or if you do then you will get gubbed ….
So each to their own.
Sure Chris comes across more muggy sometimes in his bets but this can also work in his favour to help him fly under the radar.
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haha yeah Chris. Just remembered my Paddy Messenger £10 and Apollo £10 for Grand National but no Apollo here either.
+0Mark, how did you work out the probability that If in doubt was around 10% to finish second?
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Snap @ Chris
I’ve been on the phone to CS and they meant next years National ?
+05.5 to win is around 18% chance.
2.12 to place (top 4) around 47%, so 53% not to place.Leaves 29% chance of 2nd to 4th.
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Asked my magic 8-ball.
From the exchange: If in doubt is 5.5 to win; implies roughly 18% chance of winning. It’s evens to place; implies 50% chance to come top 4. Hence, it’s roughly 32% to come 2nd-4th. You can guess that it’s around 11% to come second. Obviously could be slightly more likely to come second, but it will be marginal. If there’s a place market for top 2 (normally only available for small fields), then you can derive the implied probability as above.
Edit: Above post more succinct!
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This offer was for 3rd or 4th though so 30 percent chance. Thanks for the explanations though much appreciated.
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Oh nice. Didn’t realise it was for 2nd or 3rd (on Betstars). You mean 20 percent chance, though?
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are laddies doing their CH4 MBS racing offer,can’t see anything in promotions?
+0Thought kazbar was going to empty the exchange then !
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Get in if in doubt!!
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Boom, doubters hushed.
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Nothing for me but at least it was a qualifying profit. And thank god rock the kasbah didnt win
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