Another little theory….
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Been away on holiday and got back to the horses today. Was quite quiet until the last where my profits got crippled by the dreaded non runner before the start. Had 3 horses out of the 7 and they all came top 3 meaning my profit for the day was wiped out.
Anyway the rule 4 was applied on my winning 2 horses at 10 percent which is fair enough.
Now for the interesting part. On the betfair win market the reduction was 9 percent however on the place market the reduction was 34 percent.
This obviously means that a small loss is taken on R4 win part but a huge profit is made on the R4 place part when compared to the bookies. Also the EW part goes from 1/5 to a 1/4 due to the field going from 8/7.
Now I know this example is not the best but say it had been a 9 or 10 runner race then the late withdrawal will surely always work in our favour if we are EW arbing.
I know someone will think well that is all quite obvious but it is just shows that a late withdrawal can work in our favour if there are enough runners in the race.
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